Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest national poll finds Marco Rubio as the early choice of
Republicans for 2016. 18% would like him to be their nominee to 14% for
Chris Christie, 12% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 11% for Mike Huckabee,
8% for Condoleezza Rice, 7% each for Sarah Palin and Rand Paul, and 4%
for Rick Santorum.
Rubio’s ahead because of his strength with the most conservative wing
of the party. Among ‘very conservative’ voters he’s at 23% to 17% for
Paul Ryan and 13% for Mike Huckabee. He also had the advantage with
folks describing themselves as ‘somewhat conservative’ at 22% to 14% for
Chris Christie and 13% for Jeb Bush. Christie has a big lead with
moderates at 35% to 20% for Bush and 11% for Huckabee with Rubio all the
way back at 5%. But there just aren’t that many moderates left in the
Republican Party.
The thing that really stands out here is Christie being at the bottom
of the pile. Although his cooperation with President Obama in relation
to Hurricane Sandy doesn’t seem to have hurt him with Republicans in New
Jersey, these numbers suggest it has caused some irritation with him
outside the state. His favorability with folks describing themselves as
‘very conservative’ is only 42/31, with every other person we tested
over 60%.
One other note on the Republicans: 20% think Reince Priebus should
continue as chair, 37% think he should be replaced, and 43% don’t have
an opinion either way.
On the Democratic side it continues to be no contest. Hillary Clinton
leads the way at 61% to 12% for Joe Biden, 5% for Andrew Cuomo, 4% for
Elizabeth Warren, 2% for Martin O’Malley, and 1% each for Deval Patrick,
Brian Schweitzer, and Mark Warner.
If neither Clinton nor Biden runs the big winner is ‘undecided.’ 45%
of voters aren’t sure who they would support with Cuomo leading at 21%
to 16% for Warren, 8% for Patrick, 5% for O’Malley, 3% for Warner, and
2% for Schweitzer.
Clinton has at least 60% support with all three major ideological
factions of the party- ‘very liberal’ voters, ‘somewhat liberal’ ones,
and moderates. One thing that really stands out in the crosstabs is that
74% of African Americans want her to be the standard bearer next time.
There doesn’t seem to be any residual ill will over her 2008 battle with
Barack Obama.
All 9 of the Republicans we tested have at least 73% name recognition
with their party base. Only Clinton and Biden reach that level among the
Democrats, and beyond that only Cuomo and Warren even reach the 50%
name recognition level. It’s really going to be wide open if neither of
the big names runs on the Democratic side.
Christie finds himself at the top largely because of his appeal to
Democrats, 42% of whom rate him favorably to 25% with a negative
opinion. The question of course is whether he can appeal enough to
voters on the right wing of his party to actually win the nomination.
Rice is the most popular of the potential candidates with independent
voters, 55% of whom see her favorably to 26% with a negative opinion. If
there’s anyone who could pull off a successful third party campaign
these days it’s probably her. Those two and Clinton are in a class by
themselves in terms of their popularity, and of course Clinton has the
clearest path to a spot on the ballot.
PPP surveyed 700
registered voters, including an oversample of 454 usual Democratic Primary voters and 475 usual Republican Primary voters, from November 30th to December 2nd. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.7%, +/-4.6% for the Democratic primary portion, and +/-4.5% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or
political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deval Patrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q18 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 24%
Q22 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 13%
White …………………………………………………….. 67%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q23 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Condoleezza Rice?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 74%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q10 Do you think Reince Priebus should continue in
his role as chair of the Republican National
Committee or be replaced?
He should continue ………………………………….. 20%
He should be replaced……………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q11 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand Paul,
Condoleezza Rice, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan,
and Rick Santorum, who would you most like to
see as the GOP candidate for President in
2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 12%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 14%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 11%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 7%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 7%
Condoleezza Rice……………………………………. 8%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 18%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 12%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 7%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%
Q14 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
Should be allowed …………………………………… 64%
Should not………………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 80%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 86%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deval Patrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q10 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Deval
Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 12%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 61%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 5%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 4%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q11 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 21%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 5%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 8%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 2%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 3%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 45%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 32%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 12%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 4%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 67%
African-American …………………………………….. 16%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
