Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s regular look at the 2016 Presidential race really shows how important it is for the party that Hillary Clinton run in 2016. She leads Mike Huckabee 49/42 in a hypothetical contest. By contrast Joe Biden would trail Huckabee 46/41 in a hypothetical match, and Elizabeth Warren would trail 44/33. This is one of the most massive electability gaps we’ve ever seen.
Clinton also leads the rest of the Republican field in potential contests, although some of the match ups are pretty close. Jeb Bush is the strongest GOP hopeful, trailing by only 3 points at 47/44 and Chris Christie isn’t far behind with a 4 point deficit at 46/42. Clinton leads Rand Paul and Paul Ryan each by 5 points at 47/42 and 48/43 respectively, Marco Rubio by 8 points at 48/40, and Ted Cruz by 11 points at 51/40.
“At this point the contrast for 2016 is pretty stark,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Hillary Clinton runs, Democrats are favored to keep control of the White House. If she doesn’t run, voters are more inclined to vote for the GOP nominee.”
For the second time in a row Mike Huckabee leads the national Republican field for 2016. Huckabee’s at 18% to 15% for Jeb Bush, 14% each for Chris Christie and Rand Paul, 11% for Ted Cruz, 6% for Marco Rubio, 5% for Paul Ryan and Scott Walker, and 4% for Bobby Jindal.
Nothing much ever changes on the Democratic side. There Hillary Clinton leads with 66% to 11% for Joe Biden, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% each for Cory Booker and Andrew Cuomo, 2% for Martin O’Malley, 1% each for Kirsten Gillibrand and Brian Schweitzer, and less than 1% for Mark Warner. Clinton has an 84/12 favorability rating with Democratic primary voters, and polls at 58% or higher with liberals, moderates, men, women, whites, Hispanics, African Americans, younger voters, and senior citizens alike.
PPP surveyed 1,152 registered voters from March 6th to 9th, including 542 Republican primary voters and 429 Democratic primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 2.9%, for the Republicans it’s +/-4.2% and for the Democrats it’s +/-4.7%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q12 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q14 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q15 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q16 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q17 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q18 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q19 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 41%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q21 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican
Mike Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 33%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q22 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q24 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q25 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q26 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q27 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Q28 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 15%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 14%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 11%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 18%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 4%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 14%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 6%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 5%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q2 If Mike Huckabee was not a candidate for
President in 2016, who would you support,
given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 21%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 14%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 13%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 5%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 15%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 8%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 9%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 11%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 3%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 66%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 0%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 5%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q2 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 37%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 5%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 10%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 4%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 3%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 12%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 27%
Q3 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 12%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 19%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 6%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 4%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 3%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 19%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 37%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 74%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 84%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 32%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 8%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 58%
Man……………………………………………………….. 42%
Q9 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 14%
White …………………………………………………….. 57%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q10 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%