Raleigh, N.C. – In PPP’s newest poll, Hillary Clinton dominates the Democratic field in Pennsylvania despite Joe Biden’s native son status, while Chris Christie leads his fellow potential Republican candidates.
Among potential 2016 Democratic presidential candidates, Clinton picks up a staggering 65% of the vote. The next closest is Pennsylvania’s own Joe Biden, who fails to even hit double digits in his home state. Farther down the line are Andrew Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren with 5% each.
On the Republican side of things, the story couldn’t be any more different, as five separate candidates pick up 10% or more of the primary vote. Pennsylvania’s former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, however, was not one of those five. Chris Christie leads all potential candidates with 23%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14%, Rand Paul at 12%, and Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz tied at 10% each. Much of Christie’s lead comes from those identifying as moderate and somewhat conservative.
The story does not get much better for Republicans in the potential general election match-ups against Clinton. In each instance, Clinton leads her potential Republican opponent by double digits. Clinton leads 51/37 against Jeb Bush, 49/39 against Chris Christie, 53/34 against Ted Cruz, 52/37 against Mike Huckabee, 52/38 against Rand Paul, and 51/40 against Rick Santorum.
“Hillary Clinton looks stronger in Pennsylvania than Barack Obama was in 2012,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “At least for now she would win the state by a margin more reminiscent of Obama’s 10 point margin of victory in 2008.”
Also of interest to Pennsylvania sports, Penguins fans support, by a 22-point margin (40/18), the recent firing of General Manager Ray Shero, following the team’s lack of post-season success.
PPP surveyed 835 Pennsylvania voters, including 333 Republican primary voters and 382 Democratic primary voters from May 30th to June 1st. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.4%, +/- 5.4% for the GOP sample, and +/- 5.0% for the Democratic portion. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 53%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 52%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 52%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 per hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 59%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves,
Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Cleveland Indians, New York Mets, New
York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, and
Philadelphia Phillies, which is your favorite
Major League Baseball team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 2%
O’s ………………………………………………………… 5%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 3%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 1%
Indians …………………………………………………… 2%
Mets………………………………………………………. 2%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 8%
Pirates …………………………………………………… 29%
Phillies …………………………………………………… 32%
Another team / Don’t have a favorite…………… 16%
Q9 (Asked only of Phillies fans:) Do you approve
or disapprove of manager Ryne Sandberg’s job
performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 32%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 14%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 54%
Q10 (Asked only of Pirates fans:) Do you approve or
disapprove of manager Clint Hurdle’s job
performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 7%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 43%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor this fall were the
Phillie Phanatic and the Pirate Parrot, which
would you vote for?
Phillie Phanatic ……………………………………….. 35%
Pirate Parrot……………………………………………. 29%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 35%
Q12 Are you more a fan of the Pittsburgh Penguins
or the Philadelphia Flyers?
Penguins………………………………………………… 37%
Flyers…………………………………………………….. 37%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 26%
Q13 (Q13-14 asked only of Penguins fans) Do you
agree or disagree with the Penguins’ decision
to fire General Manager Ray Shero?
Agree …………………………………………………….. 40%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q14 Do you think the Penguins should fire coach
Dan Bylsma, or not?
Think they should…………………………………….. 26%
Think they should not……………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q15 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 7%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 15%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q21 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 10%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 23%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 10%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 14%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 12%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 6%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 4%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 8%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 3%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 9%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 31%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q4 If you are 18 to 45years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 9%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 4%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 65%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 5%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 5%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 10%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 30%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 14%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 58%
Man……………………………………………………….. 42%
Q4 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 18%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
