Polls

Clinton could be unstoppable if she runs in 2016

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

If Hillary Clinton decides to run for President in 2016, PPP’s latest poll
finds that she would be extremely difficult to beat in the Democratic primary
and in the general election.

Clinton’s favorability among Democratic primary voters is +64, and she would
clear the primary field easily with 57% support in a nine-way match-up against
other potential contenders. If Clinton opted not to run, Joe Biden would be
next in line with 73/22 favorability and 16% support to be the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016.

Chris Christie
would be Clinton’s most threatening opponent in a general election. He trails
her by only two points (42/44) in a head-to-head contest, and his overall favorability
(+28) is higher than Clinton’s (+15). But she would trounce Jeb Bush, Marco
Rubio and Paul Ryan by double-digit margins. Christie is more competitive
against Clinton primarily because he is ahead of her by 18 points (47/29) among
independents.

“As
expected, Hillary Clinton would be the ideal Democratic presidential candidate
in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But if Chris
Christie could win the GOP nomination, he’d be a formidable general election
candidate.”

If
neither Clinton nor Biden gets in the race, the frontrunners for the Democratic
nomination would then be Andrew Cuomo (19%) and Elizabeth Warren (16%).

The GOP
field is nearly wide open, but Rubio appears to be the early favorite of
Republican primary voters with 21% support. But Paul Ryan (16%), Mike Huckabee
(15%), Jeb Bush (14%) and Chris Christie (14%) are all pretty close behind
Rubio.

The
biggest problem for most of these politicians—especially many of the potential
Democratic candidates—is their lack of name recognition among voters nationally.
The big exception is Rick Perry, who has an abysmal -28 overall approval rating,
19/52.

PPP surveyed 1,100
American voters, including 400 usual Democratic primary voters and 563
Republican primary voters, from January 3rd to 6th. The margin
of error for the overall sample is +/-3.0%, +/-4.9% for the Democratic portion,
and +/-4.1% for the GOP portion. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirsten Gillibrand?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susana Martinez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deval Patrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%

Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%

Q19 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q21 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q22 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 53%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q23 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%

Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q26 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%

Q27 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q28 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q29 Do you or anyone in your household own any
guns, or not?
Yes………………………………………………………… 42%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 70%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Susana Martinez?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 76%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q10 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Susana
Martinez, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio,
and Paul Ryan, who would you most like to see
as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 14%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 14%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 15%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 2%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 2%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 21%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 7%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q13 If you are 18 to 34 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 79%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirsten Gillibrand?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deval Patrick?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%

Q10 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary
Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand,
Martin O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian
Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth
Warren, who would you most like to see as the
Democratic candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 16%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 57%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 3%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 2%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 4%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%

Q11 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 19%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 5%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 7%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 6%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 2%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 4%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 40%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 13%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 7%
White …………………………………………………….. 77%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 35%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

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