Raleigh, N.C. – The Chris Christie boomlet has carried over the Jersey border into the Keystone State. He leads Hillary Clinton by four points (48-44) in a state President Obama just carried by five. Other than that, however, Clinton continues to exceed the president’s margins in matchups against Ted Cruz (53-41), home state option Rick Santorum (51-42), and Rand Paul (51-43), and at least roughly matches him versus Jeb Bush (48-44), even in the choppy waters Democrats are sailing right now.

Among GOP primary voters, Christie has a decent 26-16 lead over Cruz, with Paul’s 14%, Bush’s 10%, Santorum’s 8%, Marco Rubio’s 6%, Paul Ryan’s 5%, and Scott Walker’s and Bobby Jindal’s 3% bringing up the rear.

In the wake of the federal government shutdown, Pat Toomey’s numbers have taken a hit. Only 36% of Pennsylvanians approve of the freshman senator’s job performance, with 46% disapproving. That is down a net seven points from eight months ago (34-37). He has fallen 20 points on the margin with independents, 11 with Democrats, and even two with his own party.

Because of this decline, PPP’s first look at Toomey’s re-election chances shows him in a tough spot. He ties his 2010 opponent Joe Sestak at 42%; Toomey beat Sestak by only two points three years ago in an even tougher climate for Democrats than they are facing now. Toomey trails popular Attorney General Kathleen Kane by four (46-42); Kane had a 33-19 favorability spread in January. Despite higher disapproval from Republicans (30%) than approval from Democrats (26%), his base comes home a little when it comes time to vote. He loses only 19% of Republicans to Kane and 14% to Sestak, while taking even more (20-21%) of the Democrats’ base from them. Kane and Sestak pull ahead by getting leads of 19 (Sestak) and 12 points (Kane) with independents.

“Pat Toomey, a beneficiary of the 2010 wave, has been vulnerable from day one,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This year, he’s taken hits from the right over the Manchin bill and now from the center and left over the shutdown.”

PPP surveyed 693 Pennsylvania voters, including an oversample of 491 usual Republican primary voters and 436 Democratic primary voters, from November 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.7%, +/-4.4% for the GOP sample, and +/-4.7% for the Democratic portion. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Toomey’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q3 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat
Kathleen Kane, who would you vote for?
Pat Toomey…………………………………………….. 42%
Kathleen Kane ………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe
Sestak, who would you vote for?
Pat Toomey…………………………………………….. 42%
Joe Sestak……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 53%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q11 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 57%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q12 Are you more a Philadelphia Eagles fan or a
Pittsburgh Steelers fan?
Eagles……………………………………………………. 28%
Steelers………………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure/Another team……………………………… 25%

Q13 (Asked only of Eagles fans:) Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Chip Kelly is doing as
coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 76%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 4%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q14 (Asked only of Eagles fans:) Do you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of Andy Reid?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q15 (Asked only of Steelers fans:) Do you approve
or disapprove of the job Mike Tomlin is doing
as coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 56%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q16 (Asked only of Steelers fans:) Do you think
Mike Tomlin should return as coach for the
2014 season, or do you think he should be
replaced?
Think he should return ……………………………… 61%
Think he should be replaced……………………… 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q17 Given the choices of Penn State, Pitt, and
Temple, what is your favorite college football
team in the state?
Penn State……………………………………………… 47%
Pitt ………………………………………………………… 20%
Temple …………………………………………………… 11%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite …………… 22%

Q18 (Asked only of Penn State fans:) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Bill O’Brien is
doing as coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 83%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q19 (Asked only of Pitt fans:) Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Paul Chryst is doing as
coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 70%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q20 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves,
Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland
Indians, New York Mets, New York Yankees,
Pittsburgh Pirates, and Philadelphia Phillies,
which is your favorite Major League Baseball
team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 1%
Orioles …………………………………………………… 8%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 4%
Indians …………………………………………………… 1%
Mets………………………………………………………. 1%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 10%
Pirates …………………………………………………… 34%
Phillies …………………………………………………… 28%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite …………… 13%

Q21 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%

Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%

Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 43%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%

Q25 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q26 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 10%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 26%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 16%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 14%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 6%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 5%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 8%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 8%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%

Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 35%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 13%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 2%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 61%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 0%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 0%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 11%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 27%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 17%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%

Q4 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 86%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 32%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%