Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest look ahead to the 2016 race for President finds just how strong Hillary Clinton is relative to other potential Democratic candidates.
Clinton narrowly trails Chris Christie right now in a hypothetical match up at 45/42. That’s owing largely to a 49/26 advantage among independent voters. We also tested four other potential Democratic candidates against Christie though, and they would all trail him by double digits. John Kerry has an 11 point deficit against Christie at 46/35, Joe Biden is down 14 at 49/35, Elizabeth Warren trails by 16 at 49/33, and Howard Dean would lag by 22 at 51/29.
Christie’s the strongest candidate for President right now because he’s viewed favorably across party lines. He’s at 48/26 with Republicans, 46/28 with independents, and 38/36 with Democrats. Clinton would start out ahead of all the other potential GOP candidates we tested against her on this poll- she’s up 5 on Jeb Bush and Rand Paul at 48/43, 6 on Mike Huckabee at 48/42, and 8 on Ted Cruz at 49/41.
In addition to being the strongest general election Christie also leads the Republican field. He gets 19% to 14% for Ted Cruz, 13% for Mike Huckabee, 11% for Rand Paul, 10% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 7% for Marco Rubio, 4% for Scott Walker, and 3% for Bobby Jindal.
There continues to be no challenge to Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side. We threw Howard Dean and John Kerry into the equation for the first time this month but Clinton still gets 66% to 10% for Joe Biden, 2% each for Cory Booker, Andrew Cuomo, Dean, Kerry, and Martin O’Malley, and 1% for Brian Schweitzer. Clinton is at 58% or more with liberals, moderates, men, women, whites, African Americans, Latinos, seniors, and young voters.
“These numbers really show how much Democrats need Hillary Clinton to run in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She’s just in another league in terms of her strength as a candidate when you compare her to the other Democrats that might run if she doesn’t.”
PPP surveyed 1,316 registered voters from December 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.7%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Howard Dean?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Kerry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 49%
Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 49%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q14 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q15 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 35%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q17 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Howard Dean and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Howard Dean………………………………………….. 29%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q18 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat John Kerry and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
John Kerry ……………………………………………… 35%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q19 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Republican
Chris Christie, who would you vote for?
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 33%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q20 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q21 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q22 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q23 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%
Q24 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q25 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 10%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 19%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 14%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 13%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 11%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 7%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 10%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q2 If Mike Huckabee was not a candidate for
President in 2016, who would you support,
given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 12%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 23%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 15%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 4%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 12%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 8%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 11%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q10 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Howard Dean,
John Kerry, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like
to see as the Democratic candidate for
President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 10%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 2%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 66%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 2%
Howard Dean………………………………………….. 2%
John Kerry ……………………………………………… 2%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q2 If Hillary Clinton was not a candidate for
President, who would you support, given the
choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Andrew
Cuomo, Howard Dean, John Kerry, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, and Elizabeth
Warren?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 35%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 7%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 7%
Howard Dean………………………………………….. 4%
John Kerry ……………………………………………… 13%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 4%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 1%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 13%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 16%
Q3 If neither Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Howard
Dean, nor John Kerry ran for President in 2016,
who would you most like to see as the
Democratic nominee?
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 13%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 14%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 7%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 2%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 24%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 40%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 72%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 85%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Howard Dean?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Kerry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 35%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 10%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 58%
Man……………………………………………………….. 42%
Q11 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 58%
African-American …………………………………….. 24%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
