Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest look at the 2016 race in New Hampshire finds that Chris Christie is actually in a stronger position with Republican voters now following Bridgegate than he was on our last poll in September. Christie leads the GOP field with 24% to 12% each for Jeb Bush and Rand Paul, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 9% for Ted Cruz, 8% for Marco Rubio, 4% for Paul Ryan, and 3% each for Bobby Jindal and Scott Walker. Christie’s 12 point lead now is a big turn around from September when he actually trailed Paul by a point at 20/19. Since then Christie’s gained 5 points, while Paul has fallen by 8.
Bridgegate doesn’t seem to be having much of an impact on Christie’s standing yet. 64% of Republican primary voters say their opinion of him is the same as it was before last week. 18% say their opinion has gotten lower, but almost as many at 14% say it’s gotten higher. And it’s not that the story hasn’t penetrated yet- 89% of GOP voters say that they’ve heard about the bridge issue, and 68% say they’re heard ‘a lot’ about it.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton is looking even more dominant now than she did in September. Then she was the choice of 57% of Democratic primary voters to be their candidate in 2016, now she’s up to 65%. Joe Biden at 10%, Elizabeth Warren at 8%, Andrew Cuomo at 3%, and Cory Booker at 2% follow her.
Clinton continues to be the favorite for a general election in New Hampshire. She leads Christie 43/39, numbers identical to what they were on our last poll in September. She holds double digit advantages over the rest of the Republican candidate field- it’s 11 points over Jeb Bush at 49/38, 13 points over Rand Paul at 50/37, and 19 points over Ted Cruz at 51/32.
“Chris Christie isn’t suffering any ill effects from Bridgegate with the Republican base,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Hillary Clinton is still by far the strongest 2016 candidate in the state.”
PPP surveyed 1,354 New Hampshire voters, including 528 Republican primary voters and 502 Democratic primary voters, from January 9th-12th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 2.7%, for the Republican primary part it’s +/-4.3%, and for the Democratic part it’s +/-4.4%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush……………. .12%
Chris Christie ……… .24%
Ted Cruz ……………. . 9%
Mike Huckabee …… .11%
Bobby Jindal ………. . 3%
Rand Paul ………….. .12%
Marco Rubio ………. . 8%
Paul Ryan ………….. . 4%
Scott Walker ………. . 3%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….13%
Q2 If Mike Huckabee was not a candidate for
President in 2016, who would you support,
given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker?
Jeb Bush……………. .14%
Chris Christie ……… .28%
Ted Cruz ……………. .10%
Bobby Jindal ………. . 4%
Rand Paul ………….. .14%
Marco Rubio ………. . 8%
Paul Ryan ………….. . 9%
Scott Walker ………. . 4%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeb Bush?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bobby Jindal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Walker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q12 How much have you heard this week about an
issue involving a bridge being shut down in
New Jersey last year: a lot, a little, or none at
all?
A lot……………………………………………………….. 68%
A little…………………………………………………….. 21%
None at all………………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q13 Has your opinion of Chris Christie gotten
higher, lower, or stayed about the same this
week?
Higher ……………………………………………………. 14%
Lower…………………………………………………….. 18%
About the same……………………………………….. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q14 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ……………… .32%
Oppose ……………… .54%
Not sure …………….. .14%
Q15 Do you believe that man-made climate change
is occurring, or not?
Believe it is
occurring ……………..33%
Believe it is not……. .53%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q16 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement? ‘The winter weather over the last
week shows that the concept of global warming
is a fraud.’
Agree ………………… .41%
Disagree ……………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .23%
Q17 Has the legalization of gay marriage in New
Hampshire had a positive or negative impact
on your life, or has it not had any impact at all?
Positive impact……. . 6%
Negative impact ….. .23%
No impact at all …… .71%
Q18 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
It should be allowed 41%
It should not ……….. .46%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q19 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 0%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q20 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 0%
Republican……………………………………………… 56%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 44%
Q22 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 39%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden…………… .10%
Cory Booker……….. . 2%
Hillary Clinton……… .65%
Andrew Cuomo …… . 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand … . 1%
Martin O’Malley…… . 1%
Brian Schweitzer …. . 0%
Mark Warner ………. . 0%
Elizabeth Warren … . 8%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….9%
Q2 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and
Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic candidate for President
in 2016?
Joe Biden…………… .32%
Cory Booker……….. . 4%
Andrew Cuomo …… . 9%
Kirsten Gillibrand … . 4%
Martin O’Malley…… . 2%
Brian Schweitzer …. . 1%
Mark Warner ………. . 1%
Elizabeth Warren … .21%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….26%
Q3 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Cory Booker……….. . 9%
Andrew Cuomo …… .19%
Kirsten Gillibrand … . 4%
Martin O’Malley…… . 5%
Brian Schweitzer …. . 2%
Mark Warner ………. . 2%
Elizabeth Warren … .30%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….28%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Biden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Booker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 86%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Cuomo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kirsten Gillibrand?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Martin O’Malley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brian Schweitzer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Warner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Elizabeth Warren?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 31%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 9%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 4%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 64%
Republican……………………………………………… 1%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
General Election Toplines
Q1 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .49%
Jeb Bush……………. .38%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q2 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .43%
Chris Christie ……… .39%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .51%
Ted Cruz ……………. .32%
Not sure …………….. .17%
Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton……… .50%
Rand Paul ………….. .37%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q5 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 28%
Republican……………………………………………… 27%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 44%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q11 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
