Raleigh, N.C. – Herman Cain is still riding high in PPP’s latest Republican primary polls in Ohio, Mississippi, and Iowa’s 18th state senate district because voters do not believe the allegations of sexual harassment that have dominated the news for the past few weeks, and they think the media that have perpetrated the stories are treating the candidate unfairly. In Mississippi, 51% of these voters think the charges are mostly false, and that only rises to 59% in the Iowa district and 61% in Ohio. Likewise, the proportion of those who think the media are giving Cain a bad rap rises from 65% to 71% to 72% in those areas. 73% in Mississippi and 77% in the other two areas think Cain should remain in the race, and 47-48% think the media is most to blame for spreading what they see as lies. The Cain campaign’s attempts to deflect blame on the Rick Perry and Mitt Romney camps have been unsuccessful, as more voters think the Obama people have been leaking the charges (20-26%) than that another GOP contender has (15-18%). Cain’s attitude that the president fears him clearly has salience with these voters.
Newt Gingrich actually tops Cain in Mississippi, 28-25, with Perry at 14%, Romney 12%, and the five others at 5% or less. But in Ohio, Cain is still up 34-20 over Gingrich, with Romney at 19%, and the rest at 5% or less. Little has changed in the three weeks since PPP last polled the state. Cain and Romney have run in place, while Gingrich is up six points from 14%. In IA SD 18, a small segment of the first caucus, Cain has 25% to Gingrich’s and Romney’s 16%, Ron Paul’s 9%, Rick Perry’s 7%, Michele Bachmann’s 6%, and the other three at 3% or less.
“Herman Cain got through the first week since the allegations came to light in pretty good shape,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s benefiting from the intense distrust Republicans have for the media, but we’ll see if he can survive the newest round of accusations.”
PPP surveyed 500 usual Republican primary voters in Ohio, 400 in Mississippi, and 266 in Iowa Senate District 18, from November 4th to 6th. The margin of error is +/-4.4% for the Ohio survey, +/-4.9% for the Mississippi survey, and +/-6.0% for the Iowa survey. These polls were not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Ohio Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 4%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 34%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 19%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q8 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 36%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 64%
Q9 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 16%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 25%
Q10 Do you think allegations of sexual harassment
against Herman Cain that came out this week
are mostly true or false?
Mostly true ……………………………………………… 17%
Mostly false…………………………………………….. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q11 Is your opinion of Herman Cain now more
positive, more negative, or unchanged from
what it was before these allegations came out?
More positive ………………………………………….. 13%
More negative…………………………………………. 17%
Unchanged …………………………………………….. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q12 Do you think that the media’s treatment of
Herman Cain this week has been mostly fair or
unfair?
Mostly fair ………………………………………………. 15%
Mostly unfair …………………………………………… 72%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 Do you think that Herman Cain should stay in
the Presidential race, or do you think he should
drop out?
Should stay in the race …………………………….. 77%
Should drop out ………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 Who do you think is most responsible for the
allegations against Herman Cain coming to
light this week: the Obama campaign, one of
the other Republican campaigns, or the
media?
The Obama campaign ……………………………… 22%
One of the other Republican campaigns……… 18%
The media………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 35%
No …………………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 42%
Mississippi Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 25%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 28%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 9%
Q8 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 40%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 60%
Q9 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 17%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 14%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 10%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 27%
Q10 Do you think allegations of sexual harassment
against Herman Cain that came out this week
are mostly true or false?
Mostly true ……………………………………………… 22%
Mostly false…………………………………………….. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q11 Is your opinion of Herman Cain now more
positive, more negative, or unchanged from
what it was before these allegations came out?
More positive ………………………………………….. 11%
More negative…………………………………………. 18%
Unchanged …………………………………………….. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q12 Do you think that the media’s treatment of
Herman Cain this week has been mostly fair or
unfair?
Mostly fair ………………………………………………. 22%
Mostly unfair …………………………………………… 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 Do you think that Herman Cain should stay in
the Presidential race, or do you think he should
drop out?
Should stay in the race …………………………….. 73%
Should drop out ………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 Who do you think is most responsible for the
allegations against Herman Cain coming to
light this week: the Obama campaign, one of
the other Republican campaigns, or the
media?
The Obama campaign ……………………………… 26%
One of the other Republican campaigns……… 16%
The media………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Roger Wicker’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .75%
Disapprove…………. .12%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q16 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Senate next year to
be Roger Wicker, or would you prefer someone
more conservative?
Roger Wicker ………………………………………….. 56%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q17 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 35%
No …………………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 32%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 51%
Iowa SD 18 Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 25%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%
Q8 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 34%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 66%
Q9 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 12%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 15%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 10%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 25%
Q10 Do you think allegations of sexual harassment
against Herman Cain that came out this week
are mostly true or false?
Mostly true ……………………………………………… 17%
Mostly false…………………………………………….. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q11 Is your opinion of Herman Cain now more
positive, more negative, or unchanged from
what it was before these allegations came out?
More positive ………………………………………….. 14%
More negative…………………………………………. 14%
Unchanged …………………………………………….. 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q12 Do you think that the media’s treatment of
Herman Cain this week has been mostly fair or
unfair?
Mostly fair ………………………………………………. 17%
Mostly unfair …………………………………………… 71%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 Do you think that Herman Cain should stay in
the Presidential race, or do you think he should
drop out?
Should stay in the race …………………………….. 77%
Should drop out ………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q14 Who do you think is most responsible for the
allegations against Herman Cain coming to
light this week: the Obama campaign, one of
the other Republican campaigns, or the
media?
The Obama campaign ……………………………… 20%
One of the other Republican campaigns……… 15%
The media………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 37%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
