Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Kansas poll finds that Sam Brownback has continued to become even more unpopular in the last year, and that he slightly trails his Democratic opponent for reelection. Only 33% of voters in the state approve of the job Brownback is doing, compared to 51% who disapprove. That’s down from a 37/52 spread when PPP last polled the state a year ago.
Brownback trails Democratic challenger Paul Davis for reelection by a 42/40 margin. Davis isn’t particularly well known- only 41% of voters have an opinion about him one way or the other- so those numbers are more a referendum on Brownback than anything else. Davis leads largely because he is winning 23% of the GOP vote, a large amount of crossover support in this polarized political climate, while only 11% of Democrats plan to vote for Brownback.
“Kansas voters really don’t care for Sam Brownback and haven’t for some time now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That gives them an unusual opportunity this year in a state where they usually don’t do too well.”
Pat Roberts has seen his net approval rating decline 12 points over the last year, in the wake of news media reports that he spends little time in the state. In February of 2013 we found him on slightly positive ground at a 31/28 spread, but now only 29% of voters approve of him compared to 38% who disapprove. Roberts doesn’t appear to be at too much risk of losing his seat to a Democrat though. He leads Chad Taylor 48/32 in a hypothetical contest.
Roberts could be in trouble in the primary though. He starts out with a 49/23 lead over Milton Wolf, but a lot of that is simply a function of name recognition since only 24% of GOP primary voters are familiar with Wolf. And concerns about his lack of attention to the state ring through with Republican voters just as they do the overall electorate- by a 42/34 spread they think Roberts is more focused on being a Washington DC insider than he is in representing Kansas.
PPP surveyed 693 Kansas voters, including 375 Republican primary voters, from February 18th to 20th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.7% and for the Republican primary component it’s +/-5.1%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sam Brownback’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Davis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Sam Brownback and Democrat
Paul Davis, who would you vote for?
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 40%
Paul Davis………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you think Sam Brownback’s tax plan has
been successful, or not?
Think it has has been……………………………….. 26%
Think it has not ……………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Roberts’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chad Taylor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Milton Wolf?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Pat Roberts and Democrat Chad
Taylor, who would you vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 48%
Chad Taylor…………………………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Milton Wolf and Democrat Chad
Taylor, who would you vote for?
Milton Wolf ……………………………………………… 33%
Chad Taylor…………………………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kathleen Sebelius?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Pat Roberts and Democrat
Kathleen Sebelius, who would you vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 52%
Kathleen Sebelius……………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Republican Milton Wolf and Democrat Kathleen
Sebelius, who would you vote for?
Milton Wolf ……………………………………………… 46%
Kathleen Sebelius……………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Secretary of
State Kris Kobach’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jean Schodorf?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q16 If the candidates for Secretary of State were
Republican Kris Kobach and Democrat Jean
Schodorf, who would you vote for?
Kris Kobach ……………………………………………. 41%
Jean Schodorf…………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q17 Do you think Pat Roberts spends enough time
in Kansas, or not?
Think he does …………………………………………. 24%
Think he does not ……………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q18 Do you think Pat Roberts is more focused on
representing Kansas or being a Washington,
D.C., insider?
Representing Kansas……………………………….. 26%
Being a D.C. insider…………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q19 Do you think public schools in Kansas are
adequately funded, or not?
Think they are…………………………………………. 31%
Think they are not ……………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q20 Do you think the Kansas Supreme Court
should rule that funding for public schools
needs to be increased, or not?
Think it should…………………………………………. 59%
Think it should not……………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q21 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 28%
Republican……………………………………………… 47%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q25 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q27 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Roberts’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Milton Wolf?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
Pat Roberts and Milton Wolf, who would you
vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 49%
Milton Wolf ……………………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q4 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican candidate for Senate this year to
be Pat Roberts or someone more
conservative?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 43%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q5 Do you think Pat Roberts spends enough time
in Kansas, or not?
Think he does …………………………………………. 32%
Think he does not ……………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q6 Do you think Pat Roberts is more focused on
representing Kansas or being a Washington,
D.C., insider?
Representing Kansas……………………………….. 34%
Being a D.C. insider…………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 32%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 32%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 2.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
