Raleigh, N.C. –
Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is unpopular and potentially vulnerable heading
into his 2014 re-election effort with small to moderate leads over six
potential Democratic challengers, according to PPP’s first ever public Kansas
poll.
Brownback has a negative -15 job approval rating, with 37% of Kansas voters
approving and 52% disapproving of his performance as governor. 72% of moderates
disapprove of his performance as well as 30% of Republicans and 66% of
independents.
Brownback’s plan to phase out the state’s income tax is almost as unpopular
as he is, with 48% of voters opposed and 37% supportive. 65% of moderates and
56% of independents oppose the plan. Even 34% of somewhat conservative voters
and 28% of Republicans are opposed to the proposal to overhaul the income tax.
Brownback leads all six possible Democratic challengers PPP tested against
him by 4 to 10 points. Brownback leads Carl Brewer 44/40, Kathleen Sebelius
48/43, Mark Parkinson 45/39, Tom Holland 45/38, Joe Reardon 45/36 and Chad
Taylor 44/32. His leads over Brewer and Sebelius are within the poll’s margin
of error.
“Sam Brownback’s really unpopular,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “The question is whether he’s unpopular enough to allow a
Democratic challenger to overcome the very heavy Republican lean of the state.”
Kansas voters view Sebelius unfavorably by a narrow margin, 44% favorable to
47% unfavorable. Moderates approve of her 65% to 25% and independents approve
of her 50% to 40%. Sebelius has a national political profile and 91% name
recognition in her home state, but none of the other Democratic politicians in
this poll had name recognition higher than 32%. It’s surprising that so many of
the largely unknown Kansas Democrats are competitive against Brownback given
the state’s strong Republican advantage in terms of voter registration.
PPP surveyed 1,229
registered Kansas voters from February 21st to 24th. The margin
of error for the overall sample is +/-2.8%. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sam Brownback’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you support or oppose Governor
Brownback’s plan for phasing out the income
tax?
Support ………………………………………………….. 37%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Carl Brewer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Holland?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Parkinson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Reardon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kathleen Sebelius?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chad Taylor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sam Brownback and Democrat
Carl Brewer, who would you vote for?
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 44%
Carl Brewer…………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sam Brownback and Democrat
Tom Holland, who would you vote for?
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 45%
Tom Holland……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sam Brownback and Democrat
Mark Parkinson, who would you vote for?
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 45%
Mark Parkinson……………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sam Brownback and Democrat
Joe Reardon, who would you vote for?
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 45%
Joe Reardon …………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sam Brownback and Democrat
Kathleen Sebelius, who would you vote for?
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 48%
Kathleen Sebelius……………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sam Brownback and Democrat
Chad Taylor, who would you vote for?
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 44%
Chad Taylor…………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 29%
Republican……………………………………………… 51%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
