Raleigh, N.C. – In the Iowa Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Roxanne Conlin appears headed for a romp, while Terry Branstad is surprisingly under 50% in his bid for the Republican Gubernatorial nomination.
Terry Branstad has just 46% to entrepreneur Bob Vander Plaats’ 31% and State Representative Rod Roberts’ 13%. His standing is less strong than expected given his previous 16 year tenure as Governor. Branstad gets 41-68% of the vote across the ideological spectrum, but does worst among the 74% conservative majority, edging Tea Party favorite Vander Plaats only 41-35.
Branstad is very well liked, with a 59-20 favorability rating. Vander Plaats also grades well, at 47-19, with the least-known Roberts at 24-15.
Former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin, the establishment pick, pulls 48% in the race to challenge Senator Chuck Grassley in the fall. While 31% are undecided at this late stage, the two lesser-known candidates, former State Representiative Bob Krause and former State Senator Tom Fiegen, get only 13% and 8%, respectively. Conlin leads Krause by 30 points among the 38% liberal minority, and tops Fiegen by 50 points among the 46% moderate plurality, but trumps Krause only 24-22 among the 16% conservative minority.
More than 70% of likely Democratic primary voters have no opinion of Krause or Fiegen, and of those who do, they are both in negative territory, Fiegen at 12-16 and Krause at 11-18. Conlin, meanwhile, posts a strong 38-15 favorability mark.
“It’s going to be very interesting to see if Terry Branstad is the next victim of the Tea Party movement,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s still ahead but the momentum seems to be on Vander Plaats’ side.”
PPP surveyed 474 likely Iowa Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.5%, and 406 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.9%, from May 25th to 27th. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terry Branstad?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rod Roberts?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 62%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Vander Plaats?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 34%
Q4 The Republican candidates for governor are
Terry Branstad, Rod Roberts, and Bob Vander
Plaats. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Terry Branstad………………………………………… 46%
Rod Roberts……………………………………………. 13%
Bob Vander Plaats…………………………………… 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Conservative…………………………………………… 74%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q7 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%