Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds that while voters have much more recognition of the Republican candidates, little has changed in the race for the open Senate seat. This comes despite the fact the Republican candidates enjoy much greater name recognition than they did three months ago by an average of just over 20 points. However, those voters are still pretty split on each of the Republicans as Sam Clovis’ favorability rating stands at 19/19, with Joni Ernst’s at 27/32, Mark Jacobs’ at 19/25, and Matt Whitaker at 13/15.
As a result, Democrat Bruce Braley continues to hold a steady lead over each of his potential Republican opponents. Braley maintains the same average 7-point lead over the various Republicans that he held in late February. He leads Sam Clovis 43/34, Joni Ernst 45/39, Mark Jacobs 42/36, and Matt Whitaker 43/36. This comes despite the fact that his favorability spread dropped 6 points, going from 31/25 in February to a 29/29 split today.
Ernst is looking like Braley’s most likely opponent for the general election at this point. She polls at 34% in the Republican primary to 18% for Mark Jacobs and 14% for Sam Clovis with the other candidates in single digits.
“Bruce Braley remains the favorite in the Iowa Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But there are a lot more votes up for grabs in this contest because the candidates are still so little known, and that leaves more room for movement between now and the fall than in a lot of the other key Senate contests.”
In the Governor’s race Terry Branstad leads Democratic challenger Jack Hatch 48/40. Iowans are closely divided on Branstad’s job performance with 42% approving and 43% disapproving. Hatch remains mostly unknown to voters in the state, with 60% saying they have no opinion about him one way or the other.
Same-sex marriage enjoys increased support in Iowa, with 48% of voters thinking it should be allowed and 42% thinking it should not. In February, voters were split on the issue, with 46% in favor of allowing same-sex marriage and 45% opposed.
PPP surveyed 914 registered voters from May 15th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Hatch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Hoefling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Jack
Hatch, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 48%
Jack Hatch……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Tom Hoefling and Democrat Jack
Hatch, who would you vote for?
Tom Hoefling…………………………………………… 30%
Jack Hatch……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Braley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Clovis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joni Ernst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Jacobs?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Whitaker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Sam
Clovis, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 43%
Sam Clovis……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni
Ernst, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 45%
Joni Ernst……………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Mark
Jacobs, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 42%
Mark Jacobs …………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Matt
Whitaker, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 43%
Matt Whitaker………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q16 If the candidates for Secretary of State this fall
were Democrat Brad Anderson and Republican
Paul Pate, who would you vote for?
Brad Anderson………………………………………… 34%
Paul Pate ……………………………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q17 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Charles Grassley’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Vilsack?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q19 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Charles Grassley and Democrat
Tom Vilsack, who would you vote for?
Charles Grassley …………………………………….. 49%
Tom Vilsack…………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q20 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Harkin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q21 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 43%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q22 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Iowa, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 48%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q23 Has the legalization of gay marriage in Iowa
had a positive or negative impact on your life,
or has it not had any impact at all?
Positive impact………………………………………… 17%
Negative impact ………………………………………. 26%
No impact at all ……………………………………….. 57%
Q24 Do you support or oppose increasing Iowa’s
minimum wage, which is $7.25 per hour, to
$10.10 per hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 48%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q25 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals,
Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, New
York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, or some
other team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 3%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 4%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 39%
White Sox ………………………………………………. 5%
Royals……………………………………………………. 6%
Brewers …………………………………………………. 3%
Twins……………………………………………………… 12%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 7%
Cardinals………………………………………………… 11%
Some other team / Not a baseball fan…………. 10%
Q26 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 6%
Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q29 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 28%
Q30 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q31 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q32 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 71%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Hoefling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Clovis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joni Ernst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Jacobs?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Whitaker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q7 Given the choices of Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst,
Mark Jacobs, Paul Lunde, Scott Schaben, and
Matt Whitaker, who would you most like to see
as the Republican candidate for Senate this
fall?
Sam Clovis……………………………………………… 14%
Joni Ernst……………………………………………….. 34%
Mark Jacobs …………………………………………… 18%
Paul Lunde……………………………………………… 2%
Scott Schaben ………………………………………… 1%
Matt Whitaker………………………………………….. 6%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 26%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for Governor were
Terry Branstad and Tom Hoefling, who would
you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 66%
Tom Hoefling…………………………………………… 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 42%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 42%
Man……………………………………………………….. 58%
Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
