Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds that the US Senate race has narrowed since the summer, but that Democrat Bruce Braley continues to hold a clear lead over all of his Republican opponents. In July Braley led the GOP field by an average of 11 points. Now it’s an average of 7 points: he leads Matt Whitaker 40/34, Joni Ernst and Mark Jacobs 41/35, and Sam Clovis 42/34. At least part of Braley’s leads at this point is a product of name recognition- 56% of voters know enough about him to have formed an opinion, where none of the Republican hopefuls have more than 25% familiarity.
The Republican primary for Senate is still pretty wide open, with 42% of voters undecided. Mark Jacobs has opened up a small lead at 20% to 13% for Joni Ernst, 11% for Matt Whitaker, 8% for Sam Clovis, and 3% each for Paul Lunde and Scott Schaben. Even with Republican primary voters the highest name id any of the candidates has is 32% for Jacobs.
There’s a pretty clear reason why the Senate race has tightened over the last seven months. Barack Obama’s approval rating in the state has dropped a net 10 points compared to the summer, from a -4 spread at 46/50 to now a -14 one at 40/54. That decline in the overall political climate for Democrats is having an effect in races like Iowa and Michigan where the actual candidates aren’t particularly well known.
In the Iowa Governor’s race Terry Branstad continues to have approval numbers that aren’t terribly impressive, but still leads by double digits for reelection against a Democratic opponent who isn’t particularly well known. Branstad has a 45/40 approval spread and leads Jack Hatch 48/36, the same 12 point lead he held in July. Hatch only has 31% name recognition and the undecideds in the race skew Democratic.
“Right now it looks like Iowa voters could be headed for a split decision in November,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “They’re inclined to reelect Terry Branstad but they’re also leaning toward keeping the open Senate seat Democratic by choosing Bruce Braley to replace Tom Harkin.”
PPP surveyed 869 Iowa voters, including 283 Republican primary voters, from February 20th to 23rd. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.3% and for the Republican primary component it’s +/-5.8%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 72%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Hoefling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 88%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Clovis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joni Ernst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Jacobs?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Whitaker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q7 Given the choices of Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst,
Mark Jacobs, Paul Lunde, Scott Schaben, and
Matt Whitaker, who would you most like to see
as the Republican candidate for Senate this
fall?
Sam Clovis……………………………………………… 8%
Joni Ernst……………………………………………….. 13%
Mark Jacobs …………………………………………… 20%
Paul Lunde……………………………………………… 3%
Scott Schaben ………………………………………… 3%
Matt Whitaker………………………………………….. 11%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 42%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for Governor were
Terry Branstad and Tom Hoefling, who would
you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 70%
Tom Hoefling…………………………………………… 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 43%
Man……………………………………………………….. 57%
Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Hatch?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Hoefling?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 88%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Jack
Hatch, who would you vote for?
Terry Branstad ………………………………………… 48%
Jack Hatch……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Tom Hoefling and Democrat Jack
Hatch, who would you vote for?
Tom Hoefling…………………………………………… 30%
Jack Hatch……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bruce Braley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sam Clovis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joni Ernst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Jacobs?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Whitaker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Sam
Clovis, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 42%
Sam Clovis……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni
Ernst, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 41%
Joni Ernst……………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Mark
Jacobs, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 41%
Mark Jacobs …………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Matt
Whitaker, who would you vote for?
Bruce Braley …………………………………………… 40%
Matt Whitaker………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q16 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q22 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%