Polls

Booker’s best 2014 hope may be the Senate

| Tom Jensen


Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –

PPP’s newest New Jersey poll finds Cory Booker leading the pack for Democratic
Senatorial Candidate in 2014. In a hypothetical head-to-head, Booker leads the
race with a 23 point spread over Republican Lieutenant Governor, Kim Guadagno. That
lead narrows to15 points when current NJ Senator Frank Lautenberg is pitted against
her. The results for Guadagno versus Congressmen Rob Andrews and Frank Pallone are
well within the margin of error at 34-35 and 32-32 respectively.

Equally promising for Booker is how voters responded when asked if Frank
Lautenberg should retire. 45% said he should retire, compared to 36% saying he
should run for reelection. Based on the results, it looks like New Jersey
Democrats are ready for a fresher face in the Senate, and would prefer Booker.

Even more reassuring is Booker’s favorability with non-liberals. Among
voters who consider themselves, “moderate”, “somewhat conservative” or “very
conservative”, Booker did significantly better than any other Democrat
Candidate listed. His favorability among “somewhat conservative” voters is 41%
compared to Lautenberg’s 20% and Pallone’s 10%. Booker’s 41% becomes
significant when compared to Guadagno’s favorability among “somewhat
conservative voters”, which comes in at a disappointing 14%.

For as good as the results were for Booker, they were just as bad for
Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno. When asked if voters had a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of Guadagno, 73% responded “not sure”. Even region-relevant
Rob Andrews and Frank Pallone received more familiar responses, with Andrews
receiving 67% “not sure” and Pallone receiving 71% “not sure”.

 “Democrats will likely hold onto
their Senate seat in New Jersey regardless of their 2014 candidate,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Cory Booker could replace
Frank Lautenberg either in an open seat situation or even in a primary.”

PPP surveyed 600 New
Jersey voters, including an oversample of 300 Democratic primary voters, from November
26th to 28th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-4.0%
and for the Democrats it’s +/-5.6%.  This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Frank Lautenberg’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Booker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Andrews?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Guadagno?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Frank Pallone?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Frank Lautenberg and Republican
Kim Guadagno, who would you vote for?
Frank Lautenberg ……………………………………. 48%
Kim Guadagno………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Cory Booker and Republican Kim
Guadagno, who would you vote for?
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 52%
Kim Guadagno………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Rob Andrews and Republican Kim
Guadagno, who would you vote for?
Rob Andrews ………………………………………….. 35%
Kim Guadagno………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Frank Pallone and Republican Kim
Guadagno, who would you vote for?
Frank Pallone………………………………………….. 32%
Kim Guadagno………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%

Q10 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 57%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 26%
Moderate………………………………………………… 35%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 20%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 10%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 25%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%

Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 69%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 42%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Frank Lautenberg’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 63%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cory Booker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Andrews?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Frank Pallone?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%

Q5 Would you like for Frank Lautenberg to run for
re-election in 2014, or would you prefer that he
retired?
He should run for re-election……………………… 36%
He should retire ………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 Would you prefer the Democratic candidate for
Senate in 2014 be Cory Booker or Frank
Lautenberg?
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 59%
Frank Lautenberg ……………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q7 Given the choices of Rob Andrews, Cory
Booker, and Frank Pallone, who would you
most like to see as the Democratic candidate
for Senate in 2014?
Rob Andrews ………………………………………….. 17%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 48%
Frank Pallone………………………………………….. 13%
Someone else…………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 36%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 7%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 2%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%

Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%

Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 40%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

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