Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama and his health care plan continue to be very unpopular in Missouri, and that’s helped Roy Blunt to move ahead of Robin Carnahan in his bid to be the state’s next Senator.
Obama’s approval rating in the state is 43% with 52% of voters disapproving of the job he’s doing. Feelings about him are highly polarized along party lines with 85% of Democrats giving him good marks and 90% of Republicans expressing the opinion that he’s doing a poor job. Independents are arrayed against him by a 59/37 spread.
Obama’s health care plan is even less popular with just 37% of voters supporting it to 54% who are opposed. By a 51/42 margin Missourians would like to see the bill repealed.
Against that backdrop it’s no surprise Blunt has taken the lead in the Senate race, getting 45% to Carnahan’s 41%. His lead comes largely because of a 47-35 advantage with independents. Carnahan is actually more popular than Blunt with 38% of voters holding a favorable opinion of her to only 25% who like Blunt. But voters ambivalent toward both candidates are leaning strongly toward Blunt in this Republican climate.
Carnahan does lead Chuck Purgason 42-38 in a hypothetical contest. 82% of voters in the state don’t know enough about Purgason to have formed an opinion of him.
“The Missouri Senate race has very little to do with Roy Blunt or Robin Carnahan and everything to do with Barack Obama right now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If his numbers don’t improve it will be very hard for Carnahan to win.”
PPP surveyed 495 Missouri voters on March 27th and 28th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you think that Republicans should work to
repeal the health care bill that was passed this
week? If yes, press 1. If no, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 51%
No …………………………………………………………. 42%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Support ………………………………………………….. 37%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 54%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roy Blunt? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 34%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Robin Carnahan? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chuck Purgason? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 82%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican
Roy Blunt, who would you vote for? If Robin
Carnahan, press 1. If Roy Blunt, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Carnahan……………. 41%
Blunt ………………….. 45%
Undecided…………… 13%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate this year were
Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican
Chuck Purgason, who would you vote for? If
Robin Carnahan, press 1. If Chuck Purgason,
press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Carnahan……………………………………………….. 42%
Purgason ……………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 Do you trust Washington politicians or
Jefferson City politicians more to deal with
Missouri’s problems? If Washington
politicians, press 1. If Jefferson City politicians,
press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Washington…………………………………………….. 13%
Jefferson City………………………………………….. 55%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 31%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in Congress? If favorable,
press 1. If unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not
sure, press 3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in Congress? If favorable,
press 1. If unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not
sure, press 3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, press
2. If someone else or you don’t remember,
press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 50%
Obama…………………………………………………… 42%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 8%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 29%
Q16 If you are white, press one now. If you are
African-American, press two now. If other,
press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
