Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today’s contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He’s at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.
Santorum’s personal popularity is the main reason for his sudden reemergence as a relevant player in the GOP race. In all 3 of these states his favorability is over 70%- 74/17 in Minnesota, 72/17 in Missouri, and 71/19 in Colorado. He’s far better liked than his main opponents- Romney’s favorability is 47-60% in those states and Gingrich’s is 47-48%. While Romney and Gingrich have hammered each other in recents weeks Santorum’s been largely left alone and he’s benefiting from that now.
There are three groups Santorum’s winning in all three of these states: Tea Partiers, Evangelicals, and those describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ Those were groups that had previously been in Gingrich’s column, but it appears right leaning Republican voters are shifting toward Santorum as their primary alternative to Romney. If Santorum does pick up 2 wins and a 2nd place finish tomorrow that trend is likely to be accelerated.
“Rick Santorum has the potential to firmly establish himself as the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney today,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If he can pick up two wins and a second it will raise significant questions about both Romney’s inevitability and about the purpose for Newt Gingrich’s continued presence in the race.”
PPP surveyed 938 likely Republican caucus voters in Colorado with a margin of error of +/-3.2% and 864 likely Republican caucus voters in Minnesota with a margin of error of +/-3.3% on February 4th and 6th, as well as 958 likely primary voters in Missouri on February 6th with a margin of error of +/-3.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Colorado Toplines
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus
or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure?
Republican caucus…………………………………..100%
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 27%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 69%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 31%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 25%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 23%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 25%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 47%
Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 35%
No …………………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 45%
Are not …………………………………………………… 55%
Q14 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 12%
Someone else/Not sure …………………………… 11%
Minnesota Toplines
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus
or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure?
Republican caucus…………………………………..100%
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 22%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 20%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 33%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 2%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 65%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 35%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 25%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 24%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 74%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 33%
No …………………………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q13 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 49%
Are not …………………………………………………… 51%
Q14 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 35%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 17%
Someone else/Not sure …………………………… 14%
Missouri Toplines
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary
or the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 The Republican candidates for President on
the ballot in Missouri are Ron Paul, Mitt
Romney, and Rick Santorum. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 19%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 32%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 4%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 62%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 38%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 22%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 44%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 72%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 43%
Q12 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 27%
No …………………………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 54%
Are not …………………………………………………… 46%
Q14 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 17%
Someone else/Not sure …………………………… 17%
