Raleigh, N.C. – The Nevada Senate primary is roughly a year away, so a lot can change, but right now, neither of the Washington-recruited frontrunners in either party appears to have any obstacle to nomination. It looks like Dean Heller and Shelley Berkley will face off for the seat Heller will soon take over from John Ensign on an appointed basis.
Sharron Angle is more likely to seek Heller’s House seat than challenge him in the Senate primary. But if she did and the vote were today, she would get only 8% to his 84%. Angle defeated Sue Lowden and crew last spring by riding the Tea Party wave, but only 12% of people who claim to be a part of the movement would vote for her against Heller. In other states, PPP has found that even conservative Republicans are vulnerable to a generic “more conservative challenger,” but Heller would defeat an idealized opponent from his right by a resounding 69-17 margin, even 68-22 among Tea Partiers.
Unlike Heller, Berkley is facing an announced opponent, Byron Georgiou, but though he has raised some money, he has yet to make an impression on voters. 73% have no opinion of him, and those who think they know enough to say how they feel fall 4-23 against him, compared to her 59-13. Berkley leads Georgiou in an early primary matchup, 65-8, with the same 27% undecided as have no opinion on Berkley.
Mitt Romney still leads the presidential caucus standings at 24%, but that is down from 31% in January, with Donald Trump now placing second at 16%. Sarah Palin was second at 19%, but she has fallen to a tie for fifth at 8% with Tim Pawlenty (up from 1% in January). Trump also eats into Newt Gingrich’s (11% from 18%) and Mike Huckabee’s (10% from 14%) support. Rounding out the field are Michele Bachmann (7%) and Ron Paul (5%, down from 7%). The trouble for Romney? Only 7% say they would vote for a candidate who supported a health insurance mandate, less than the 14% who say that in New Hampshire and 11% in Iowa. The fact that he still wins with the 69% who would not shows that many voters have not yet paid attention to his record.
PPP surveyed 300 Nevada Democratic primary voters and 300 Republican primary voters from April 21st to 24th. The margin of error for each survey is +/-5.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Nevada Republican Survey Results:
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 10%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 8%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 24%
Donald Trump …………………………………………. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q7 What if Donald Trump didn’t run and the
candidates for President in 2012 were just
Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you
vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 9%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 29%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q8 What if neither Mike Huckabee nor Donald
Trump ran and the candidates for President in
2012 were just Michele Bachmann, Newt
Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty,
and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 14%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 33%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%
Q9 What if Mike Huckabee did run but neither
Sarah Palin nor Donald Trump did and the
candidates for President in 2012 were just
Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 31%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q10 What if neither Mike Huckabee, nor Sarah
Palin, nor Donald Trump ran for President and
the candidates were just Michele Bachmann,
Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and
Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 14%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 38%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for the Republican Senate
nomination next year were Dean Heller and
Sharron Angle, who would you vote for?
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 84%
Sharron Angle…………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 Generally speaking would you like Dean Heller
to be the Republican nominee for Senate next
year or would you prefer someone more
conservative?
Dean Heller…………………………………………….. 69%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 34%
No …………………………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q15 Would you be willing to vote for someone who
supported a bill at the state level mandating
that voters have health insurance for
President?
Would be willing to vote for someone who
supported a bill at the state level mandating
that voters have health insurance for
President…………………………………………………7%
Would not be willing to……………………………… 69%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 42%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 9%
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Nevada Democratic Survey Results:
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Shelley Berkley?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Byron Georgiou?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q3 If the Democratic candidates for Senate next
year were Shelley Berkley and Byron
Georgiou, who would you vote for?
Shelley Berkley ……………………………………….. 65%
Byron Georgiou……………………………………….. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 32%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 10%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 3%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 65%
Man……………………………………………………….. 35%
Q6 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 20%
White …………………………………………………….. 62%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q7 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
