Raleigh, N.C. – Could Jane Norton be the next Republican Senate candidate endorsed by the Washington establishment to see her campaign go up in flames? Ken Buck has gained rapidly on her in the last two months and her lead over him is now within the margin of error.
Norton leads Buck 31-26. When PPP looked at the race in March she had a 34-17 lead. Buck actually has the 34-30 advantage with conservatives but Norton continues to lead overall thanks to a 32-12 edge with moderates.
Buck has seen his favorability improve from 21% to 32%, while Norton’s has dropped from 41% to 34%. It’s clearly a two candidate race at this point with none of the other contenders getting more than 5%.
Scott McInnis continues to cruise to the party’s nomination for Governor. He leads Dan Maes 50-15. That actually represents a tightening since McInnis was up 58-8 on the March poll, but he still doesn’t really seem to have much to worry about.
On the Democratic side Michael Bennet has widened his lead over Andrew Romanoff to 46-31 after being ahead just 40-34 on the previous poll. Bennet is doing well across the ideological spectrum, holding double digit leads with liberals, moderates, and conservatives alike.
“In Colorado the Democratic primary was supposed to be competitive and the GOP one a foregone conclusion,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it seems like the opposite of that is happening. Bennet has expanded his lead while Buck and Norton are headed for a close one.”
PPP surveyed 442 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.7%, and 448 likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.6%, from May 14th to 16th. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Colorado Republican Survey Results:
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jane Norton? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 43%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Buck? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable ………….. 32%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not Sure……………. 54%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Wiens? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 73%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott McInnis? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 32%
Q5 The Republican candidates for Senate are
Steve Barton, Ken Buck, Robert Greenheck,
Gary Kennedy, Vincent Martinez, Jane Norton,
Cleve Tidwell, Mark Van Wyk, and Tom Wiens.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for? If Steve Barton, press 1. If Ken Buck,
press 2. If Robert Greenheck, press 3. If Gary
Kennedy, press 4. If Vincent Martinez, press 5.
If Jane Norton, press 6. If Cleve Tidwell, press
7. If Mark Van Wyk, press 8. If Tom Wiens,
press 9. If you’re undecided, press 0.
Barton ……………………………………………………. 1%
Buck………………………………………………………. 26%
Greenheck ……………………………………………… 5%
Kennedy…………………………………………………. 1%
Martinez…………………………………………………. 2%
Norton……………………………………………………. 31%
Tidwell …………………………………………………… 1%
Van Wyk ………………………………………………… 0%
Wiens…………………………………………………….. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%
Q6 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Joe Gschwendtner, Dan Maes, Y.J. Mager,
Scott McInnis, and Mark Vanderbilt. If the
election was today, who would you vote for? If
Joe Gschwendtner, press 1. If Dan Maes,
press 2. If Y.J. Mager, press 3. If Scott
McInnis, press 4. If Mark Vanderbilt, press 5.
If you’re undecided, press 6.
Gschwendtner…………………………………………. 0%
Maes……………………………………………………… 15%
Mager ……………………………………………………. 4%
McInnis ………………………………………………….. 50%
Vanderbilt……………………………………………….. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for? If Newt Gingrich, press 1.
If Mike Huckabee, press 2. If Sarah Palin,
press 3. If Ron Paul, press 4. If Mitt Romney,
press 5. If you’re undecided, press 6
Gingrich …………………………………………………. 16%
Huckabee……………………………………………….. 18%
Palin………………………………………………………. 29%
Paul ………………………………………………………. 9%
Romney …………………………………………………. 25%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q8 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 1%
Moderate………………………………………………… 34%
Conservative…………………………………………… 64%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 42%
Man……………………………………………………….. 58%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 10%
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African American …………………………………….. 0%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
Colorado Democratic Survey Results:
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Michael Bennet’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 53%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 22%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Romanoff? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable ………….. 48%
Unfavorable……….. 14%
Not Sure……………. 38%
Q3 The Democratic candidates for US Senate are
Michael Bennet and Andrew Romanoff. If the
election was today, who would you vote for? If
Michael Bennet, press 1. If Andrew Romanoff,
press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
Bennet …………………………………………………… 46%
Romanoff ……………………………………………….. 31%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 43%
Moderate………………………………………………… 47%
Conservative…………………………………………… 10%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 62%
Man……………………………………………………….. 38%
Q6 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 22%
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African American …………………………………….. 5%
Other……………………………………………………… 1%
Q7 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
