Raleigh, N.C. – In PPP’s first Alaska poll of 2014, incumbent Senator Mark Begich holds a lead against all Republican challengers we tested him against. Begich leads 41/37 over former Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources Dan Sullivan, 44/40 over former governor Sarah Palin, 43/37 over Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell, and 45/25 over the Tea Party-backed 2010 Senate candidate Joe Miller. This new poll shows little movement from our July poll, with Begich narrowly widening his lead on Treadwell, but losing a bit of his lead on Sullivan, Palin, and Miller.
Begich leads despite having mixed approval ratings, as 43% of voters approve of the job he’s doing compared to 44% who disapprove. As for the Republican candidates, only Mead Treadwell boasts a positive favorability rating, with 33% of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 31% having an unfavorable opinion. Alaskans have a slightly less favorable opinion of Dan Sullivan (30/35). While Sarah Palin remains unpopular (39/55), Alaskans really hate Joe Miller—only 16% have a favorable opinion of him as compared to 62% who have an unfavorable opinion.
In the upcoming GOP primary, Dan Sullivan leads the field with 30% of Republicans supporting him. Mead Treadwell is not far behind with 25%, and Joe Miller is at 20%. Neither of the other candidates tested in the poll, John Jaramillo and Kathleen Tonn, garnered more than 4% of the vote.
“A lot has happened politically since we polled Alaska last July but Mark Begich’s standing is mostly unchanged,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He had small leads over his Republican opponents then, and he has small leads over them now. It will be a close race but so far he is hanging on.”
As for the upcoming gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Sean Parnell leads Democrat Byron Mallott and Independent Bill Walker, 41/25/16. In the race for Alaska’s lone Congressional seat, incumbent Republican Don Young leads Democrat Matt Moore and Libertarian Jim McDermott, 50/22/12.
PPP surveyed 850 registered voters from January 30th to February 1st, including 442 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.4%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-4.7%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Begich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Sullivan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mead Treadwell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Joe Miller,
Alaskan Independent Party candidate Zachary
Kile, independent Ted Gianoutsos, and
independent Sidney Hill, who would you vote
for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 45%
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 25%
Zachary Kile……………………………………………. 5%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 1%
Sidney Hill………………………………………………. 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Sarah
Palin, Alaskan Independent Party candidate
Zachary Kile, independent Ted Gianoutsos,
and independent Sidney Hill, who would you
vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 44%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Zachary Kile……………………………………………. 4%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 1%
Sidney Hill………………………………………………. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Dan
Sullivan, Alaskan Independent Party candidate
Zachary Kile, independent Ted Gianoutsos,
and independent Sidney Hill, who would you
vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 41%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 37%
Zachary Kile……………………………………………. 6%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 1%
Sidney Hill………………………………………………. 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Begich, Republican Mead
Treadwell, Alaskan Independent Party
candidate Zachary Kile, independent Ted
Gianoutsos, and independent Sidney Hill, who
would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 43%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 37%
Zachary Kile……………………………………………. 5%
Ted Gianoutsos……………………………………….. 1%
Sidney Hill………………………………………………. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sean Parnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Byron Mallott?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Sean Parnell, Democrat Byron
Mallott, Constitution Party candidate J.R.
Myers, and independent Bill Walker, who would
you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 41%
Byron Mallott…………………………………………… 25%
J.R. Myers………………………………………………. 3%
Bill Walker………………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Don Young’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q15 If the candidates for Congress next year were
Republican Don Young, Democrat Matt Moore,
and Libertarian Jim McDermott, who would you
vote for?
Don Young ……………………………………………… 50%
Matt Moore……………………………………………… 22%
Jim McDermott………………………………………… 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q16 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 12%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 7%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 20%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 46%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
Other……………………………………………………… 21%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
Q22 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Sullivan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mead Treadwell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q4 If the Republican candidates for Senate were
John Jaramillo, Joe Miller, Dan Sullivan,
Kathleen Tonn, and Mead Treadwell, who
would you vote for?
John Jaramillo…………………………………………. 2%
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 20%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 30%
Kathleen Tonn…………………………………………. 4%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 25%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 19%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%