Raleigh, N.C.— Despite her unpopularity at large, Alaska Republicans want Sarah Palin to be their U.S. Senate nominee next year. If they get their wish, Mark Begich should escape his meager approval ratings and cruise to re-election in a deep red state. And the GOP will have choked in yet another prime pickup opportunity three cycles in a row.
In the primary, Palin tops establishment favorite, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, 36-26, with Dan Sullivan back at 15% and 2010 nominee Joe Miller at 12%. If Palin opts out of a bid, Treadwell would be in better shape, with 33% to Sullivan’s 25% and Miller’s 24%. Head-to-head with Miller, who is disliked 2:1 even by GOP primary voters, Treadwell would romp, 53-30.
If Treadwell triumphs, he would provide Begich with a tough contest. Begich earns only 44% of the vote to Treadwell’s 40%. Sullivan could also provide some competition, lagging 46-39. But Palin drops by 12 points, 52-40, and Miller by an astounding 23, 55-32.
In a state where only a fifth of voters identify as Democrats and President Obama has a 39% approval rating, Begich is managing to stay barely above water, though his approval marks are down from February. 42% approve and 41% disapprove of Begich’s job performance, down a net nine points from 49-39 in the previous poll.
He does so well in the horse races because none of the Republicans is that well-liked, and Palin and Miller are downright despised. 39% see Palin favorably and 58% unfavorably, a standing of which Miller would be jealous, with his 19-63 spread. Voters like Treadwell (35-29) and Sullivan (31-28) slightly, but they are much less familiar with them.
“It looks like Begich/Treadwell would be a very competitive race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Republicans just have to hope their primary voters nominate the right candidate.”
PPP surveyed 890 Alaska voters, including an oversample of 507 usual Republican primary voters, between July 25th and 28th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.3%, and +/-4.4% for the GOP portion. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Begich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan
Sullivan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mead Treadwell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Joe
Miller, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 55%
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Sarah
Palin, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 52%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Dan
Sullivan, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 46%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Mead
Treadwell, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich……………………………………………. 44%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sean Parnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ethan Berkowitz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hollis French?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Les Gara?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 48%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Wielechowski?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sean Parnell and Democrat Ethan
Berkowitz, who would you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 51%
Ethan Berkowitz………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q17 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sean Parnell and Democrat Hollis
French, who would you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 54%
Hollis French…………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q18 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sean Parnell and Democrat Les
Gara, who would you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 53%
Les Gara………………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q19 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Republican Sean Parnell and Democrat Bill
Wielechowski, who would you vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 52%
Bill Wielechowski …………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q20 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Don Young’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q21 If the candidates for Congress next year were
Republican Don Young and Democrat Matt
Moore, who would you vote for?
Don Young ……………………………………………… 56%
Matt Moore……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q22 Do you consider Sarah Palin to be an Alaskan
still, or not?
Consider her one …………………………………….. 47%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q23 Do you think it would be more appropriate for
Sarah Palin to run for the Senate from Alaska
or Arizona?
Alaska……………………………………………………. 41%
Arizona…………………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q24 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q25 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q26 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 20%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 48%
Q27 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 83%
Other……………………………………………………… 17%
Q28 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 23%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan
Sullivan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mead Treadwell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q5 Given the choices of Joe Miller, Sarah Palin,
Dan Sullivan, and Mead Treadwell, who would
you most like to see as the Republican
candidate for Senate next year?
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 12%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 36%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 15%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 26%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 11%
Q6 If Sarah Palin didn’t run for the Senate, and the
candidates were Joe Miller, Dan Sullivan, and
Mead Treadwell, who would you vote for?
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 24%
Dan Sullivan……………………………………………. 25%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate were just Joe
Miller and Mead Treadwell, who would you vote
for?
Joe Miller ……………………………………………….. 30%
Mead Treadwell ………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Sean Parnell and Bill Walker, who would you
vote for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 60%
Bill Walker………………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%