Raleigh, N.C. – Tom Barrett would be the front runner if he decides to seek the Democratic nomination for Governor of Wisconsin in the upcoming recall election. He leads Kathleen Falk 46-27 and David Obey 42-30 in potential head to heads. He also gets 26% to 22% for Falk, 21% for Obey, and 11% for Tim Cullen in a hypothetical four way contest.
If Barrett doesn’t end up throwing his hat in the ring, it looks like Obey would have a better chance at the nomination than Falk as well. He leads her 43-28 in a head to head contest.
Barrett has the best favorability numbers of the candidates at a +30 spread (53/23). He’s followed by Obey at +20 (43/23), Falk at +8 (36/28), and Cullen at +6 (25/19).
Barrett may have greater name recognition than Falk, but that’s not the reason for his early advantage. Among likely primary voters with an opinion about Falk, whether it’s positive or negative, Barrett’s lead remains pretty much unchanged at 47-33.
There’s a great deal of interest in the potential primary beyond the Democratic base. We find that 30% of likely voters for it are independents and 11% are even Republicans.
Core Democrats prefer Barrett over Falk 53-25, Barrett over Obey 44-32, and Obey over Falk 48-27. In the four way contest 31% say they’d support Barrett to 25% for Obey with Falk slipping into third at 18% and Cullen at 9%.
“Tom Barrett would be the top choice of Wisconsin Democrats to take on Scott Walker,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If he doesn’t run they’d prefer David Obey. Kathleen Falk is not at the top of voters’ lists.”
Opponents of Scott Walker are submitting the signatures for a potential recall election today. A primary to pick his opponent will likely be held sometime this spring.
PPP surveyed 522 likely Democratic primary voters on January 16th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, includings crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 It appears there will be a recall election against
Governor Scott Walker this year, and there will
be a Democratic primary election to determine
who runs against him. How likely are you to
vote in the Democratic primary for Governor:
Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote,
are the chances fifty-fifty, or do you think you
will not vote?
Certain to vote ………………………………………… 90%
Will probably vote ……………………………………. 10%
Chances are fifty-fifty ……………………………….. 0%
Will not vote ……………………………………………. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Barrett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Cullen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kathleen Falk?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Obey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q6 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were just Tom Barrett and Kathleen Falk, who
would you vote for?
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 46%
Kathleen Falk………………………………………….. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were just David Obey and Kathleen Falk, who
would you vote for?
David Obey …………………………………………….. 43%
Kathleen Falk………………………………………….. 28%
Undecided………………………………………………. 29%
Q8 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were just Tom Barrett and David Obey, who
would you vote for?
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 42%
David Obey …………………………………………….. 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 28%
Q9 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were Tom Barrett, Tim Cullen, Kathleen Falk,
and David Obey, who would you vote for?
Tom Barrett …………………………………………….. 26%
Tim Cullen………………………………………………. 11%
Kathleen Falk………………………………………….. 22%
David Obey …………………………………………….. 21%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 61%
Man……………………………………………………….. 39%
Q11 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 21%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If an independent or a
member of another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 59%
Republican……………………………………………… 11%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
