Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest poll
of the Wisconsin Senate race finds Tammy Baldwin leading Tommy Thompson by a
49-45 margin. That represents a nine point reversal from a month ago when
Thompson led 49-44.
Baldwin’s image has improved a little bit in the last month with her
favorability rating improving from 40% to 44%. Her unfavorable number has
remained steady at 45%. But the bigger reason for the shift is that Thompson’s
image has taken a major hit. Last month he had a net +3 favorability rating
with 46% of voters rating him positively to 43% with a negative opinion. He’s
dropped a net 11 points since that time and now just 42% see him positively to
50% with an unfavorable view.
Baldwin’s turned a small deficit with independents last month (45-42) into a
slight advantage with them this month (46-44). And she’s more than doubled her
share of the Republican vote from 4% to 10%.
By a 47/43 margin voters say they want Democrats to have control of the US
Senate and the actual Baldwin/Thompson numbers are tracking that pretty
closely.
“Tammy Baldwin is now looking like the favorite in the Wisconsin Senate
race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Tommy Thompson
isn’t proving to be a very strong candidate in this race 26 years after he was
first elected Governor, although he has time to turn it around.”
Things are increasingly looking bad for Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson in
Wisconsin, but Scott Walker just continues to roll along. He has a 50/46
approval rating and leads a generic Democratic opponent for reelection by a
50/44 margin, numbers very similar to what happened in June’s recall election.
The problems other key Republicans are having in the state aren’t rubbing off
on Walker. Wisconsin voters continue to be very closely divided at the state
level- 46% say they plan to vote for Democratic legislative candidates this
fall to 44% who prefer Republicans.
PPP surveyed 842 likely Wisconsin voters on
September 18th and 19th. The margin of error for the overall survey
is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tammy Baldwin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican
Tommy Thompson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Tammy Baldwin……………………………………….. 49%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Scott Walker’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q5 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Republican
Scott Walker or his Democratic opponent?
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 50%
Democratic opponent……………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ron
Johnson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Herb
Kohl’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q8 Would you rather that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the US Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 47%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If there was an election for state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 What do you think the outcome of the Packers
season will be this year: win the Super Bowl,
win the NFC but not the Super Bowl, make the
playoffs but not win the NFC, or miss the
playoffs?
Win the Super Bowl …………………………………. 26%
Win the NFC but not the Super Bowl ………….. 26%
Make the playoffs but not win the NFC……….. 29%
Miss the playoffs ……………………………………… 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Brett Favre?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Aaron Rodgers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 87%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McCarthy?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 75%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 6%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bret Bielema?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 46%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 31%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q19 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
