Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s new Arizona poll finds not only that voters in the state agree with Jan Brewer’s veto of Senate Bill 1062, but that they also for the first time support legalizing gay marriage in the state.
Only 22% of Arizonans say they support Senate Bill 1062, compared to 66% who opposed it. Opposition to the bill is bipartisan with majorities of Democrats (11/86), independents (18/64), and Republicans (34/51) alike against it. For the first time in our polling we find that a plurality of Arizonans support gay marriage. 49% are in favor of it to 41% who are opposed, a net 9 movement in favor of gay marriage in the state since November of 2011 when there was 44/45 opposition to it. Voters under the age of 45 support it 55/36 with seniors the only age group against it at this point.
“Arizona’s a pretty good representative of how the nation is moving on gay issues,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “They don’t support new laws discriminating against gays- they support new laws giving them full equality.”
Moving on to the Governor’s race for this year, it looks pretty wide open for both the Republican primary and the general election. The leader for the GOP nomination is ‘undecided’ at 34%. 5 candidates have measurable amounts of support at this point- Ken Bennett at 20%, Christine Jones at 16%, Scott Smith at 12%, Andrew Thomas at 9%, and Doug Ducey at 6%. Al Melvin, John Molina, and Frank Riggs all register at 1% in the poll.
In hypothetical general election contests between Democratic candidate Fred DuVal (who has just 27% name recognition) and the Republican field, no candidate ever gets more than 40%. DuVal trails Scott Smith (39/33) and Ken Bennett (37/33) but leads the rest of the GOP hopefuls- it’s 36/35 over Doug Ducey, 35/32 over John Molina, 36/32 over Frank Riggs, 37/33 over Christine Jones, 37/32 over Al Melvin, and 40/35 over Andrew Thomas. Overall the race has to be considered a toss up at this point.
PPP surveyed 870 Arizona voters, including 403 Republican primary voters, from February 28th to March 2nd. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.3% and for the Republican primary component it’s +/-4.9%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jan
Brewer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Bennett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Doug Ducey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Fred DuVal?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Christine Jones?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Al Melvin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Molina?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Frank Riggs?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Thomas?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 57%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Ken Bennett and Democrat Fred
DuVal, who would you vote for?
Ken Bennett ……………………………………………. 37%
Fred DuVal……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Doug Ducey and Democrat Fred
DuVal, who would you vote for?
Doug Ducey ……………………………………………. 35%
Fred DuVal……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Christine Jones and Democrat
Fred DuVal, who would you vote for?
Christine Jones ……………………………………….. 33%
Fred DuVal……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q15 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Al Melvin and Democrat Fred
DuVal, who would you vote for?
Al Melvin ………………………………………………… 32%
Fred DuVal……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q16 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican John Molina and Democrat Fred
DuVal, who would you vote for?
John Molina ……………………………………………. 32%
Fred DuVal……………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q17 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Frank Riggs and Democrat Fred
DuVal, who would you vote for?
Frank Riggs ……………………………………………. 32%
Fred DuVal……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q18 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Scott Smith and Democrat Fred
DuVal, who would you vote for?
Scott Smith …………………………………………….. 39%
Fred DuVal……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q19 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Andrew Thomas and Democrat
Fred DuVal, who would you vote for?
Andrew Thomas………………………………………. 35%
Fred DuVal……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q20 If the candidates for Attorney General were
Republican Tom Horne and Democrat Felicia
Rotellini, who would you vote for?
Tom Horne ……………………………………………… 36%
Felicia Rotellini………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q21 Do you support or oppose Senate Bill 1062,
which would allow businesses to refuse service
to same-sex couples and other customers
based on their religious beliefs?
Support ………………………………………………….. 22%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 66%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q22 Do you agree or disagree with Governor
Brewer’s decision to veto Senate Bill 1062?
Support ………………………………………………….. 72%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q23 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Arizona, or not?
Think it should be…………………………………….. 49%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q24 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..45%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………32%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q25 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q26 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q28 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q29 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If
other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 12%
White …………………………………………………….. 80%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q30 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q31 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Bennett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Doug Ducey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Christine Jones?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Al Melvin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Molina?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Frank Riggs?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 86%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Andrew Thomas?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 17%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q9 Given the choices of Ken Bennett, Doug
Ducey, Christine Jones, Al Melvin, John
Molina, Frank Riggs, Scott Smith, and Andrew
Thomas, who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Governor this year?
Ken Bennett ……………………………………………. 20%
Doug Ducey ……………………………………………. 6%
Christine Jones ……………………………………….. 16%
Al Melvin ………………………………………………… 1%
John Molina ……………………………………………. 1%
Frank Riggs ……………………………………………. 1%
Scott Smith …………………………………………….. 12%
Andrew Thomas………………………………………. 9%
Something else / Not sure…………………………. 34%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 7%
Moderate………………………………………………… 23%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 31%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1.If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
