Public Policy Polling

Obama down in Nebraska but close in 2nd CD

Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama padded his already overwhelming Electoral College victory over John McCain four years ago by taking one of Nebraska’s three congressional districts despite losing statewide by 15 points.  Though the state legislature redrew the districts to try to ensure that would not happen again, there is still a chance it may, per PPP’s latest poll of the state.

Mitt Romney leads Obama by only 12 points statewide (51-39)—less not only than McCain’s margin of victory but equal to Ron Paul’s lead and also less than that of the man he is trying to fend off for the nomination.  Rick Santorum tops Obama by 17 points, 55-38, while Paul matches Romney at 49-37.  Only Newt Gingrich fares worse than Romney, leading the president by nine (49-40).  Obama trails Romney by only one point in the 2^nd Congressional District he snatched from McCain last time; he ties Santorum.

Santorum tops in Nebraska

Rick Santorum is the strongest Presidential candidate in Nebraska- for both the primary and general elections.

Santorum's the top choice of 39% of GOP voters in Nebraska to 25% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul. Santorum is very popular with Republicans in the state, at a 64/22 favorability rating. None of the other contenders can even hit 50% there, with Romney at 46/39, Gingrich at 38/42, and Paul at 30/52.

As has been the case everywhere he's done well, Santorum's strength is based on support from the most conservative groups of the Republican electorate. He's up 53-18 on Romney with 'very conservative' voters, and also has a 48-18 advantage with Tea Party voters. Nebraska also provides another example of Romney's difficulty connecting with Evangelicals. He's actually up 29-28 with non-Evangelical voters but is still getting crushed overall because of his 50-22 deficit with Evangelicals.

Nebraska's another state where Santorum would gain in a big way if Newt Gingrich got out of the race. His lead would expand to 21 points with him getting 51% to 30% for Romney and 10% for Paul.

Santorum's the strongest candidate in the general election in Nebraska as well. He leads Barack Obama by 17 points at 55-38. The other Republicans lead by smaller, but still healthy, margins. Romney and Paul are each up by 12 at 51-39 and 49-37 respectively. Gingrich is the weakest of the GOP hopefuls, leading Obama by 9 points at 49-40.

Santorum, Romney tied in NC

Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican race for President in North Carolina looks very competitive, with Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney tied at 30%. Newt Gingrich is 3rd at 19% with Ron Paul bringing up the rear at 13%.

Two weeks ago Romney had a four point lead over Santorum in the state. Romney's support has remained pretty steady since then, but Santorum's grown from 27% to 30%. It's no coincidence that Santorum's support has increased as Gingrich's has declined from 24% to 19%. More and more conservatives are unifying around Santorum as the alternative to Romney. If Gingrich dropped out of the race Santorum would open up a 6 point lead in North Carolina with 43% to 37% for Romney and 13% for Paul.

Santorum leads by 14 in Louisiana

Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Santorum is headed for a commanding win in Louisiana on Saturday. We find him with 42% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, and 2% for Buddy Roemer.

It's interesting to look at these numbers in the context of last week's results in Alabama and Mississippi. Mitt Romney averaged 30% in those two contests, and that's about where he is here. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich combined for 64% in those two contests, and they combine for a relatively similar 60% here. The big difference though is that conservative voters appears to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now, and that's why Louisiana is likely to be much more lopsided than either of last week's contests were. If Gingrich was completely out of the race Santorum would have a 22 point lead, 53-31, over Romney here with Paul at 11%.

Santorum leads in LA and other notes...

Rick Santorum is headed for a commanding win in Louisiana on Saturday. We find him with 42% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, and 2% for Buddy Roemer.

It's interesting to look at these numbers in the context of last week's results in Alabama and Mississippi. Mitt Romney averaged 30% in those two contests, and that's about where he is here. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich combined for 64% in those two contests, and they combine for a relatively similar 60% here. The big difference though is that conservative voters appears to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now, and that's why Louisiana is likely to be much more lopsided than either of last week's contests were. If Gingrich was completely out of the race Santorum would have a 22 point lead, 53-31, over Romney here with Paul at 11%

Santorum's entire lead in Louisiana is coming with the furthest right factions of the Republican Party. He leads Romney 50-23 with 'very conservative' voters, 44-22 with Tea Partiers, and 51-23 with Evangelicals. Santorum also appears to have the late momentum on his side. Among those who've decided who to vote for in the last few days he's at 47% to just 25% for Romney. That suggests he could end up winning by an ever wider margin than he has in this poll.

Romney's up only 37-33 in urban areas, which have been one of his strong suits. He's running slightly behind Santorum, 38-29 in suburban areas.  And he's getting absolutely crushed, 50-23, in rural areas. Southern Republicans still aren't warming up to Romney. His 49/41 favorability rating runs far behind both Santorum (70/22) and Gingrich (59/30).

Other notes from our Louisiana poll:

Romney holds narrow national primary lead

Raleigh, N.C. – The bloom is off Rick Santorum’s rose, and Republican primary voters are starting to warm up to Mitt Romney.  Santorum is still more popular with Republicans nationally than Romney is, but sentiment has shifted toward Romney significantly since PPP’s last national survey last month.

Romney’s favorability spread is up 18 points from almost even at 44% favorable and 43% unfavorable to 54-35 in the last month, while Santorum’s is down 13 points from 64-22 to 59-30.  Corresponding with that, Romney now leads the national primary preference with 34% to Santorum’s 31%, Newt Gingrich’s 20%, and Ron Paul’s 9%.  In February, Santorum had a 38-20 lead, with Gingrich at 17% and Paul at 13%, a shift of 21 points on the margin toward the former Massachusetts governor.

Romney holds small lead nationally

PPP's newest national poll finds that Mitt Romney leads with 34% to 31% for Rick Santorum, 20% for Newt Gingrich, and 9% for Ron Paul. But if Gingrich dropped out Santorum would have a small lead with 41% to 40% for Romney and 11% for Paul.

46% of Republican primary voters actually do think it's time for Gingrich to drop out, while 42% think he should continue on. 48% of his supporters would go to Santorum, while 33% would pick Romney. Gingrich dropping out being worth 4 points to Santorum is also what we found on our Illinois poll over the weekend- it would be a boost to Santorum, but not necessarily a game changing one.

A deeper look at the favorability numbers for the two front runners shows two campaigns headed in opposite direction. Romney's net favorability of +19 (54/35) is up 18 points from our national poll in February, a sign of increasing acceptance with the GOP base. Santorum is actually more well liked than Romney with a net favorability of +29 (59/30). But his numbers are headed in the wrong direction, a 13 point drop from his lofty +42 (64/22) standing a month ago.

Romney up big in Illinois primary

Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.

Romney's particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he's even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn't tended to do that well with is why he's looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.

Romney up big in Illinois

Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.

Romney's particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he's even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn't tended to do that well with is why he's looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.

Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just 'somewhat conservative.' Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney's also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors.

Obama improving in NC, Romney leads primary

Raleigh, N.C. – In a state he won by a hair in 2008, North Carolinians are now again evenly split on President Obama’s job performance, and he has upped his leads over all four remaining Republican contenders since PPP’s last survey in February.

49% both approve and disapprove of the job Obama is doing in office, basically unchanged from the 48-49 spread PPP found last month.  But he now leads GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney by three points (49-46), up from 47-46.  He also tops challengers Rick Santorum (49-44, up from 48-46), Ron Paul (48-41, up from 47-41), and Newt Gingrich (51-42, up from 50-45).