Public Policy Polling

Collins strong for re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Maine poll finds that if Susan Collins is the Republican candidate for Senate next year, she'll get reelected. Collins is one of the most popular Senators in the country, with 63% of voters approving of her to 24% who disapprove. She accomplishes the incredibly rare feat in these times of having at least a 60% approval across party lines- she's at 66/24 with Republicans, 64/24 with independents, and 60/25 with Democrats.

Collins would easily dispatch either of her state's members of Congress in a head to head match up. Despite Mike Michaud's own stellar 58/23 favorability rating, Collins would lead him 54/36 in a head to head match up. And Collins' lead over Chellie Pingree would be even more substantial at 58/33.

Maine Republicans safe with Collins, in trouble otherwise

PPP's newest Maine poll finds that if Susan Collins is the Republican candidate for Senate next year, she'll get reelected. Collins is one of the most popular Senators in the country, with 63% of voters approving of her to 24% who disapprove. She accomplishes the incredibly rare feat in these times of having at least a 60% approval across party lines- she's at 66/24 with Republicans, 64/24 with independents, and 60/25 with Democrats.

Collins would easily dispatch either of her state's members of Congress in a head to head match up. Despite Mike Michaud's own stellar 58/23 favorability rating, Collins would lead him 54/36 in a head to head match up. And Collins' lead over Chellie Pingree would be even more substantial at 58/33. In both contests Collins carries 34% of the Democratic vote and wins independents by more than 20 points.

As Dick Lugar and Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle have learned in recent years though, being a moderate Republican can give you trouble in a Senate primary. Collins' 66/24 approval spread with GOP voters is well below Murkowski's 77/13 standing at the beginning of 2010- she was defeated in the primary 8 months later. And against a hypothetical 'more conservative' GOP opponent in a primary, Collins leads only 49-46. Voters describing themselves as 'very conservative' would like to replace her by a 75/22 margin. If the Tea Party is looking for a primary target in 2014, Collins probably belongs at the top of the list alongside Georgia's Saxby Chambliss.

Obama, King, gay marriage favored in Maine

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final Maine poll of the 2012 election cycle finds Barack Obama leading the state 55-42.  Romney has gained 3 points since PPP's last look at the state in mid-September, but he hasn't been able to get too close because Obama's support has remained steady at 55%.

Obama has a 50% approval rating in the state with 44% of voters disapproving of him. You might expect the contest in Maine to be closer based on those numbers, but Mitt Romney is not getting any New England home field advantage- only 40% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 53% with a negative one.

If there is any intrigue with the Presidential race in Maine it's that the race is relatively close in the 2nd Congressional District. Obama leads Romney only 51/46 there with most of his statewide margin coming thanks to a 59/39 lead in the 1st District. It's a long shot for Romney but his chances of picking up that electoral vote are better than his prospects in places that have received more attention this week such as Michigan and Minnesota.

Maine narrowly favors gay marriage legalization

Raleigh, N.C. – Maine voters are leaning towards legalizing gay marriage, but it looks like it will be probably be close. 52% of voters say that they plan to vote yes on Question 1 to 44% who are opposed. When we ask simply whether or not voters think same sex marriage should be legal, 52% say it should be while 40% think it should not.

“Our experience in polling gay marriage is that if people say they’re undecided it usually means they’re opposed to it,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Despite the 8 point lead for passage this should be seen as a very close race.”

There's a pretty significant gender gap on this issue with women supporting Question1 58-38, while men oppose it 50/47. There's a major divide along generational lines as well with voters under 65 support it by a 56/41 margin, but those over 65 opposing it 53/41.

Maine Miscellany

-Maine voters are leaning towards legalizing gay marriage, but it looks like it will be probably be close. 52% of voters say that they plan to vote yes on Question 1 to 44% who are opposed. When we ask simply whether or not voters think same sex marriage should be legal, 52% say it should be while 40% think it should not. Our experience in polling these kinds of issues is that undecided usually means no so this really should be seen as a toss up with gay marriage supporters barely over the 50% mark- there's not a lot of room for error in the final seven weeks.

There's a pretty significant gender gap on this issue with women supporting Question1 58-38, while men oppose it 50/47. There's a major divide along generational lines as well with voters under 65 support it by a 56/41 margin, but those over 65 opposing it 53/41.

-Paul LePage continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 37% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove.  He trails a generic Democratic opponent for reelection by a 48/40 margin, including 45/38 with independents. Of course LePage got elected in 2010 with less than 40% of the vote so if there's a strong independent candidate and that person and the Democratic candidate cannibalize each other enough LePage could continue to be really unpopular and get himself reelected anyway. Probably related to voters' unhappiness with LePage, Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot in the state by a 48/37 margin.

Maine has voters' remorse on Governor LePage

Raleigh, N.C. – Maine voters regret electing Republican Paul LePage Governor and would choose Independent Eliot Cutler if they could do the 2010 election over again, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. When asked who they would vote for if they could do the election over, 43% of Maine voters chose Eliot Cutler, 35% chose Paul LePage, and 19% chose Democrat Libby Mitchell. LePage suffers from a negative job approval rating, with just 41% of voters approving of his job performance and 52% disapproving.

Democrats are in strong position to make gains in the State Legislature, with 51% of voters saying they’d generally vote for Democratic candidates if the election were held today and just 37% of voters saying they’d vote for a Republican candidate. Among independent voters, 42% say they would vote for Democrats and 28% say they’d vote for a Republican.

A majority of Maine voters say same-sex marriage should be legal, by a 54-41 margin. A plurality of voters (47-32) favor a law that would allow “marriage licenses for same-sex couples that protects religious freedom by ensuring that no religion or clergy be required to perform such a marriage in violation of their religious beliefs.”

Maine Miscellany

-It looks like Maine voters will reverse their 2009 decision and legalize gay marriage in the state this fall. 54% think that gay marriage should be legal to only 41% who think it should be illegal. And when we asked about the issue using the exact language voters will see on the ballot this fall, they say they're inclined to support the referendum by a 47-32 margin.

There's some indication that the exact ballot language is confusing people a little at this point. Only 67% of those who support gay marriage in general say they'll vote yes while 12% say they'll not and 21% are not sure. At the same time just 60% of those who oppose gay marriage generally say they'll vote against the proposed referendum, while 24% say they'll vote for it and 16% are not sure. My guess is at the end of the day voters will see this as a straight referendum on gay marriage regardless of what the language on the ballot says- and the 54/41 number bodes well for pro-equality voters.

Republicans' opinions are pretty much the same as they were in 2009. But Democrats' support for gay marriage has increased slightly, from 71% to 78%. And more importantly independents have gone from voting against gay marriage 52/46 three years ago to now supporting it by a 57/36 margin.

-In the wake of her retirement announcement Olympia Snowe has tied colleagues Daniel Inouye and John Barrasso for the highest approval rating PPP has ever found for a Senator. 69% of voters like the job she's doing to only 26% who disapprove. She gets her best numbers with Democrats (76/20), followed by independents (72/23), then Republicans (57/36).

Maine Question 1 narrowly leads; voters want gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – Next Tuesday, Maine voters will get to vote whether to reject a state law that requires voters to register at least two business days prior to an election.  The vote could come down to the wire.  In PPP’s poll this past weekend, it was leading 48-44, meaning same-day registration would be restored.  Democrats and Republicans are about equally polarized for or against it, but independents favor it, 56-35.

Maine’s gay marriage law failed 47-53 at the polls just two years ago, but now, as nearly everywhere, public opinion is shifting rapidly towards same-sex marriage rights.  51% of Maine voters want it to be legal and only 42% illegal, a 15-point reversal from 2009.  That is up even seven points from when PPP last polled the state in March; then 47% said gay couples should be allowed to legally marry, and 45% said they should not.  If a proposed referendum were on the ballot to re-legalize gay marriage while respecting the right of churches to not perform the ceremonies, it would pass even more handily, 48-35.

Maine Miscellany

-The referendum to return same day voter registration to Maine is heading for a close vote, with 48% of voters supporting it and 44% opposed. Democrats support keeping same day registration by a 60/33 margin, while Republicans oppose it 29/64.  Breaking the tie are independents, who say they'll vote for it 56/35.  This looks like a vote that could go either way and it may come down to whether young people- more likely to use the same day registration option- bother to turn out and vote.  They support keeping it by a 61/39 margin.

-This is the first time PPP has polled Maine in over 7 months but Paul LePage's position hasn't budged a bit.  In March 43% of voters approved of him with 48% disapproving, and now those numbers are exactly the same. He is very polarizing with 80% of Republicans giving him good marks, and 76% of Democrats rating him negatively.  Independents split against him by a 38/52 spread. 

Voters say if they could do it over again they'd elect independent Eliot Cutler as Governor- 43% say they'd go with him to 38% for LePage and 16% for Democratic nominee Libby Mitchell. LePage's 38% is exactly what he got last year, but with the benefit of hindsight more Democrats now wish they had voted for Cutler instead of their own party's nominee.

-Maine is a great example of the reality that public opinion is moving on the topic of gay marriage. 2 years ago voters in the state narrowly voted to overturn a law allowing same sex couples to marry. But now 51% of voters in the state say they think gay marriage should be legal to only 42% who continue to believe it should be illegal.  Opinions among Democrats and Republicans haven't changed a whole lot over the last 2 years, but independents have gone from opposing gay marriage by a 52/46 margin to supporting it by a 53/39 spread.

Maine favors gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – In November 2009, Maine voters rejected the state’s then new law legalizing same-sex marriage, but more than a year removed from that vote, voters are now narrowly in favor of legalizing these unions once again.  47% want gay marriage to be the law, and 45% oppose it being legal.  The quarter of voters who claim to be independents overwhelmingly support same-sex unions, 56-37, along with 71% of Democrats, but 21% of Democrats and 77% of Republicans prefer the status quo.  As in most places across the country, only senior citizens, those over the age of 65, resist change.  Pluralities to slim majorities of every other age group favor same-sex marriage.