Public Policy Polling

Dems favored for MA-Gov.—unless Brown runs

Raleigh, N.C. – It’s more than a year and a half out from the 2014 Massachusetts gubernatorial election, and the indecision of voters in PPP’s latest look at the contest reflects that.  At least 17% and as much as 48% of voters are undecided in 21 match-ups PPP tested in this very unsettled race.

But the general picture is no surprise in this deep blue state: Democrats have a slight edge unless Scott Brown is the Republican nominee.  53% see Brown favorably and 35% unfavorably, and he earns 43-49% of the vote, with leads of four to 18 points against the seven Democrats PPP tested.  Yet those Democrats lead the other two Republicans tested—2010 gubernatorial nominee Charlie Baker and failed 2012 congressional and 2010 Lt. Gov. candidate Richard Tisei—in almost all the other head-to-heads.

Wide open in Massachusetts

PPP's first comprehensive look at next year's race for Governor in Massachusetts finds that voters are largely unfamiliar with the potential candidates, making it pretty wide open.

The one exception to that rule is if Scott Brown decides to make a race of it. Despite working as a Fox News commentator and openly flirting with running for office in another state, he remains quite popular with 53% of Massachusetts voters seeing him favorably to 35% with a negative opinion. Brown leads all the potential Democratic candidates we tested by anywhere from 4 to 18 points. William Galvin comes closest at 43-39, followed by Mike Capuano at 45-38, Steve Grossman at 46-34, Joe Avellone, Don Berwick, and Mo Cowan who each trail by 17 at 46/29, 47/30, and 48/31 respectively, and Carmen Ortiz who trails 49/31.

One reason the Democrats all trail Brown by so much is that they're largely unknown. Galvin has the highest name recognition but even he is known only to 52% of voters in the state. He's followed in familiarity by Capuano at 46%, Grossman and Ortiz at 34%, Cowan at 28%, Avellone at 19%, and Berwick at 17%. Asked who out of that crew they'd like as their candidate for Governor next year, 44% of Democrats say they'd prefer someone else or that they're not sure. Capuano leads the way among those who have an opinion with 17% to 13% for Galvin, 6% for Grossman, 5% for Avellone and Ortiz, and 4% for Berwick and Cowan.

Markey puts Brown on the ropes

Raleigh, N.C. – A Scott Brown/Ed Markey race to replace John Kerry in Massachusetts would start out as a toss up, PPP's newest poll of the state finds. Markey is a clear favorite over Stephen Lynch in a potential primary contest, and Brown would have an easier path to the Governor's office than a return to the Senate.

Brown starts out leading Markey by just 3 points in a head to head match up, 48/45. 69% of the voters currently undecided voted for Elizabeth Warren in November, while only 17% of them voted for Brown. If those folks ended up voting for the same party that they did in November, Markey would lead Brown by a point.

The primary for the special election looks like it will be a blowout. Markey starts out with a 52/19 lead over Lynch. Lynch actually has a net negative favorability rating with Democratic voters- only 27% see him positively to 28% with a negative opinion. Markey, on the other hand, is quite popular with the party base- 58% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him to only 13% with an unfavorable one.

Brown/Markey would start out as toss up

A Scott Brown/Ed Markey race to replace John Kerry in Massachusetts would start out as a toss up, PPP's newest poll of the state finds. Markey is a clear favorite over Stephen Lynch in a potential primary contest, and Brown would have an easier path to the Governor's office than a return to the Senate.

Brown starts out leading Markey by just 3 points in a head to head match up, 48/45. 69% of the voters currently undecided voted for Elizabeth Warren in November, while only 17% of them voted for Brown. If those folks ended up voting for the same party that they did in November, Markey would lead Brown by a point. Brown may be starting out at 48%, but it's a very hard path to 50 for him given who the undecideds are.

The comparatively large number of undecided voters who lean Democratic is a function of Markey having 73% name recognition at this point compared to 93% for Brown. Markey starts out as the much stronger potential Democratic candidate- Lynch trails Brown by 9 points at 48/39.

The primary for the special election looks like it will be a blowout. Markey starts out with a 52/19 lead over Lynch. Lynch actually has a net negative favorability rating with Democratic voters- only 27% see him positively to 28% with a negative opinion. Markey, on the other hand, is quite popular with the party base- 58% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him to only 13% with an unfavorable one.

The Senate race looks like about a 50/50 proposition for Brown at this point. Republican voters, by a 48/38 margin, would actually prefer that Brown run for Governor rather than the Senate. And our polling finds that Brown would start out as a pretty strong favorite for that office.

Democrats set to win Massachusetts, Connecticut Senate races

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Massachusetts and Connecticut find that Democrats are likely to pick up the Senate seat in the former and hold onto the open seat in the latter. Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown 52-46 in the Massachusetts contest, while Chris Murphy has a 52-43 advantage over Linda McMahon in Connecticut.

Scott Brown has a 52/36 approval rating. Usually Senators with those kinds of approval numbers are safe for reelection. But Warren needed to do 2 things in this campaign: solidify the Democratic vote behind her and reduce Brown's advantage with independents. She's succeeded on both of those fronts. 84% of Democrats are planning to vote for her, only slightly less than the 88% of Republicans Brown's winning. And Warren's deficit with independents is only 21 points at 59-38. Our final poll of the 2010 Massachusetts Senate special election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley 64-32 with them so Warren's really made up a fair amount of ground on that front.

Democrats likely to win CT, MA Senate races

PPP's final polls in Massachusetts and Connecticut find that Democrats are likely to pick up the Senate seat in the former and hold onto the open seat in the latter. Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown 52-46 in the Massachusetts contest, while Chris Murphy has a 52-43 advantage over Linda McMahon in Connecticut.

Scott Brown has a 52/36 approval rating. Usually Senators with those kinds of approval numbers are safe for reelection. But Warren needed to do 2 things in this campaign: solidify the Democratic vote behind her and reduce Brown's advantage with independents. She's succeeded on both of those fronts. 84% of Democrats are planning to vote for her, only slightly less than the 88% of Republicans Brown's winning. And Warren's deficit with independents is only 21 points at 59-38. In a vacuum that might sound pretty bad, but our final poll of the 2010 Massachusetts Senate special election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley 64-32 with them so Warren's really made up a fair amount of ground on that front.

In Connecticut our final poll finds Chris Murphy with his largest lead all year at 9 points. He's increased his advantage by 5 points since two weeks ago when he was ahead just 48-44. Linda McMahon, already unpopular, has just become more disliked by voters in the state over the last couple weeks. Only 37% have a favorable opinion of her to 52% with an unfavorable one. For a Republican to win in Connecticut requires their party to be strongly unified around them. But McMahon is losing 19% of the GOP vote to Murphy, a good deal more than the 14% of Democrats she's picking up. McMahon is also performing terribly with women, trailing Murphy 55-39 with them.

Warren lead up to 6 points, Obama’s down to 14

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Massachusetts poll finds two races going in opposite directions- Mitt Romney's cut Barack Obama's lead to its smallest level in the state all year. But at the same time Elizabeth Warren's built her advantage out to the widest margin we've ever found.

Warren leads Scott Brown 50-44. The big change over the last month is that Brown's image is finally starting to take a hit. His approval rating is now a +7 spread at 49/42, down a net 14 points from mid-September when he was at 55/34.

The biggest thing that continues to make it very hard for Brown to win this race is that 52% of voters in the state want Democrats to have control of the US Senate to 35% who want the Republicans in control. Warren is now winning the Democratic vote 82/13, erasing most of the crossover support that Brown had earlier in the year.

Warren up 6, Obama up 14 in Massachusetts

PPP's newest Massachusetts poll finds two races going in opposite directions- Mitt Romney's cut Barack Obama's lead to its smallest level in the state all year. But at the same time Elizabeth Warren's built her advantage out to the widest margin we've ever found.

Warren leads Scott Brown 50-44. The big change over the last month is that Brown's image is finally starting to take a hit. His approval rating is now a +7 spread at 49/42, down a net 14 points from mid-September when he was at 55/34. There's an increasing sense that he's been more a partisan voice for the national Republican Party (45%) than an independent voice for Massachusetts (44%). That's a 10 point shift from our last poll when voters thought 49/40 that he'd been more of an independent voice.

The biggest thing that continues to make it very hard for Brown to win this race is that 52% of voters in the state want Democrats to have control of the US Senate to 35% who want the Republicans in control. Warren is now winning the Democratic vote 82/13, erasing most of the crossover support that Brown had earlier in the year.

Republicans have been very consistent in referring to Elizabeth Warren as a professor over the last year but that may not be the best framing. 57% of Massachusetts voters have a favorable opinion of college professors to 19% with a negative one. The breakdown is 79/5 among Democrats, but GOP voters do have a negative opinion of professors with 33% rating them favorably to 42% with a unfavorable opinion.

In the Presidential race Barack Obama's seeing the same kind of decline in Massachusetts that he is nationally. He leads Mitt Romney by 14 points, 55-41. That's down from an 18 point lead last month, and it's the smallest advantage we've found for him in the state all year. The big shift over the last month in Massachusetts has been among independent voters. They now support Romney 53-40, after giving Obama a 47-44 edge last month.

Warren gains 7 points on Brown in a month, takes 2-point lead

Raleigh, N.C. – Things have been going Elizabeth Warren's way in the Massachusetts Senate race over the last month. She's gained 7 points and now leads Scott Brown 48-46 after trailing him by a 49-44 margin on our last poll.

Warren's gaining because Democratic voters are coming back into the fold. Last month she led only 73-20 with Democrats. Now she's up 81-13. That explains basically the entire difference between the two polls. There are plenty of Democrats who like Scott Brown- 29% approve of him- but fewer are now willing to vote for him. That's probably because of another finding on our poll- 53% of voters want Democrats to have control of the Senate compared to only 36% who want Republicans in charge. More and more Democrats who may like Brown are shifting to Warren because they don't like the prospect of a GOP controlled Senate.

Warren rebounds

Things have been going Elizabeth Warren's way in the Massachusetts Senate race over the last month. She's gained 7 points and now leads Scott Brown 48-46 after trailing him by a 49-44 margin on our last poll.

Warren's gaining because Democratic voters are coming back into the fold. Last month she led only 73-20 with Democrats. Now she's up 81-13. That explains basically the entire difference between the two polls. There are plenty of Democrats who like Scott Brown- 29% approve of him- but fewer are now willing to vote for him. That's probably because of another finding on our poll- 53% of voters want Democrats to have control of the Senate compared to only 36% who want Republicans in charge. More and more Democrats who may like Brown are shifting to Warren because they don't like the prospect of a GOP controlled Senate.

Brown's approval numbers have actually improved since our poll last month. 55% of voters approve of him to 34% who disapprove. He continues to dominate the race with independents, leading 56-35, and he's taking 94% of the Republican vote. 56% of voters think he's ideologically 'about right' to only 29% who think he's too conservative. And 49% consider him to be more an 'independent voice for Massachusetts' than the 40% who think he's more a 'partisan voice for the national Republican Party.' Brown continues to be one of the more popular Senators in the country and he's doing what he needs to do in this campaign, but his party label may end up being more than he can overcome.