Public Policy Polling

North Carolina voters disapprove of Republican legislators

Raleigh, N.C. – North Carolina voters disapprove of the way Republicans are running state government in general and of several of their specific policy proposals. Just 38% of voters say they approve of the job Republicans as a whole are running state government, while 52% disapprove. The General Assembly as a whole fares particularly badly, with just 23% job approval and 49% disapproval. 50% say they have an unfavorable opinion of Republicans in the North Carolina Legislature compared to 36% who hold a favorable opinion. Democrats in the Legislature fare only slightly better, with a 38%-44% favorability rating. Only Governor Pat McCrory himself sees a net positive job approval rating, with 49% approving and 35% disapproving.

The policies North Carolina Republicans are pushing just aren’t viewed very favorably by voters: just 36% support a proposed law banning the baring of women’s breasts compared to 41% who oppose it; 30% support the Legislature eliminating the earned income tax credit while 42% oppose it; and only 26% support the Legislature blocking the expansion of Medicaid health care coverage to roughly 500,000 North Carolinians while 56% oppose. And fully 68% of voters say they should have the option to vote straight-party ticket if they choose to, while 21% say they should not. As such it may not come as much of a surprise that Democrats lead Republicans in the general ballot for State Legislature: 47% say they’d vote for a Democrat and 41% say a Republican in the next election.

North Carolina Miscellany

As a whole North Carolinians are unhappy with their Republican run state government. 38% of voters approve of the job it's doing to 52% who disapprove, including a 34/51 spread with independents.

Voter anger is being directed a lot more at the legislature than Governor Pat McCrory. McCrory's approval is steady at a +14 spread compared to a month ago, with 49% of voters approving of him to 35% who disapprove. Given that Bev Perdue's polls numbers slipped every single month from January to July of her term in office, stability is not a bad thing for McCrory. He's at 47/32 with independents.

The Republicans in the legislature though have just a 36% favorability rating with 50% of voters giving them poor marks. The Democrats aren't popular either at a 38/44 spread, but they're at least doing a good deal better than their GOP counterparts. Democrats currently lead the generic legislative ballot 47/41.

What's driving the Republicans' unpopularity? Much of the agenda they're pursuing is unpopular with the public at large:

-56% of voters disagree with the decision to block Medicaid expansion, compared to only 26% of voters who support it. Even rank and file Republicans are pretty divided on the decision (39/36 support) and there's majority opposition from Democrats (16/70) and independents (27/56).

-Voters are also opposed, by a 42/30 margin, to the elimination of the earned income tax credit. This is another issue where even GOP voters are pretty tepid on the action taken by their elected officials (38/34 support) and Democrats (26/46) and independents (28/45) are both pretty opposed.

-The action we see the strongest opposition to that Republican lawmakers are trying to take is the elimination of straight party ticket voting. Only 21% of voters support eliminating that option, compared to 68% who think it should continue to exist. Both Democrats (70/17) and Republicans (68/22) strongly support the continuation of straight party ticket voting.

-And finally voters oppose the proposed 'nipple bill' 41/36. Women are evenly divided on it at 38%, but men firmly oppose it 45/34.

Other notes from North Carolina:

McCrory starts term in decent shape

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's first Pat McCrory approval poll finds 45% of voters giving him good marks to just 19% who disapprove. His approval number is almost identical to the 43% we found for Bev Perdue the first time we polled on her in 2009, but the disapproval is a good deal lower than the 32% of voters who started out with unhappy. A big part of that is due to Democrats splitting evenly on McCrory, 26% approving and 26% disapproving. That suggests they're at least giving him a chance.

The next six months will be critical for McCrory. After starting out in a similar place, Perdue was down to a 25% approval rating by July and was never able to recover over the next four years. The success or failure of McCrory's administration may be determined in these early days.

Reflecting the fact that most voters don't pay close attention state government 31% approve of McCrory's cabinet selections, 24% disapprove, and 45% don't have an opinion either way. His two most controversial appointees Tony Tata (14/19) and Art Pope (12/19) both have negative favorability ratings but that may be more a reflection of them being unknown than anything else. In the Triangle where they do have decently high name recognition Tata (36/23) is seen positively, while Pope (21/28) is not.

McCrory starts out at 45%

-PPP's first Pat McCrory approval poll finds 45% of voters giving him good marks to just 19% who disapprove. His approval number is almost identical to the 43% we found for Bev Perdue the first time we polled on her in 2009, but the disapproval is a good deal lower than the 32% of voters who started out with unhappy. A big part of that is due to Democrats splitting evenly on McCrory, 26% approving and 26% disapproving. That suggests they're at least giving him a chance.

The next six months will be critical for McCrory. After starting out in a similar place, Perdue was down to a 25% approval rating by July and was never able to recover over the next four years. The success or failure of McCrory's administration may be determined in these early days.

-Reflecting the fact that most voters don't pay close attention state government 31% approve of McCrory's cabinet selections, 24% disapprove, and 45% don't have an opinion either way. His two most controversial appointees Tony Tata (14/19) and Art Pope (12/19) both have negative favorability ratings but that may be more a reflection of them being unknown than anything else. In the Triangle where they do have decently high name recognition Tata (36/23) is seen positively, while Pope (21/28) is not.

-Barack Obama's starting out his second term with a 46% approval rating in North Carolina. He was at 52% on his first approval poll in 2009 and the 46% figure reflects voters having their minds already made up and not really being willing to give him a chance to the same extent they did the last time around.

McCrory continues to lead by 10

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds Pat McCrory's lead in the Governor's race holding steady. He's at 47% to 37% for Walter Dalton with Libertarian Barbara Howe at 5%. Those numbers are exactly identical to what they were two weeks ago.

McCrory continues to be the most popular politician in the state, with a 47/31 favorability rating. Those numbers are far better than the sitting Governor or either Senator has. McCrory leads by a greater than 2:1 margin among independents, 52-25. He's also taking 18% of the Democratic vote from Dalton while losing just 7% of Republicans.

Incumbents in the other Council of State races appear to be favored for reelection right now, although some of those contests are pretty close. Auditor Beth Wood leads Republican challenger Debra Goldman 40-36 and Treasurer Janet Cowell leads her GOP foe Steve Royal 41-36. Republican Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler looks like a shoo in for reelection with 45% to 35% for Democratic challenger Walter Smith.

McCrory lead steady

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds Pat McCrory's lead in the Governor's race holding steady. He's at 47% to 37% for Walter Dalton with Libertarian Barbara Howe at 5%. Those numbers are exactly identical to what they were two weeks ago.

McCrory continues to be the most popular politician in the state, with a 47/31 favorability rating. Those numbers are far better than the sitting Governor or either Senator has. McCrory leads by a greater than 2:1 margin among independents, 52-25. He's also taking 18% of the Democratic vote from Dalton while losing just 7% of Republicans.

Incumbents in the other Council of State races appear to be favored for reelection right now, although some of those contests are pretty close. Auditor Beth Wood leads Republican challenger Debra Goldman 40-36 and Treasurer Janet Cowell leads her GOP foe Steve Royal 41-36. Republican Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler looks like a shoo in for reelection with 45% to 35% for Democratic challenger Walter Smith.

The closest statewide race could end up being the open seat contest for Lieutenant Governor. There Republican Dan Forest leads Democrat Linda Coleman 38-37. This is the fourth PPP poll of the contest, and all four of them have found the candidates within two points of each other. It's likely to be an extremely close contest.

In the North Carolina Supreme Court race Sam Ervin IV continues to lead with 32% to 24% for incumbent Paul Newby. But the main story in the nonpartisan race is the undecideds- 44% of voters are undecided without having party cues to rely on.

McCrory now up double digits

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's new poll of the North Carolina Governor's race finds Republican Pat McCrory leading Democrat Walter Dalton 47-37, with Libertarian Barbara Howe at 5%. This is the biggest lead McCrory's had in a PPP survey since Dalton won the Democratic nomination in May.

The key for McCrory is that the attacks on him over the last four months just haven't done much to affect his image. He has a +12 net favorability rating with 46% of voters giving him positive marks to 34% who have a negative opinion. That's not much different from May when he was at +13 (41/28).

McCrory's lead continues to be driven by two major factors: a high level of crossover support from Democrats, and a huge advantage with independents.  McCrory's winning 19% of the Democratic vote while losing only 7% of Republicans to Dalton. And he's up by a 52/22 margin with independents.

McCrory leads by 10

-PPP's new poll of the North Carolina Governor's race finds Republican Pat McCrory leading Democrat Walter Dalton 47-37, with Libertarian Barbara Howe at 5%. This is the biggest lead McCrory's had in a PPP survey since Dalton won the Democratic nomination in May.

The key for McCrory is that the attacks on him over the last four months just haven't done much to affect his image. He has a +12 net favorability rating with 46% of voters giving him positive marks to 34% who have a negative opinion. That's not much different from May when he was at +13 (41/28).

McCrory's lead continues to be driven by two major factors: a high level of crossover support from Democrats, and a huge advantage with independents.  McCrory's winning 19% of the Democratic vote while losing only 7% of Republicans to Dalton. And he's up by a 52/22 margin with independents.

-The good news for Democrats is that McCrory's strength at the top of the ticket isn't hindering them too much further down the ballot. In three Council of State races with Democratic incumbents we find all of them winning. June Atkinson is up 44-34 on John Tedesco for Superintendent of Public Instruction, Elaine Marshall's up 41-34 on Ed Goodwin for Secretary of State, and Wayne Goodwin's up 41-36 on Mike Causey for Insurance Commissioner. In the one race with a Republican incumbent that we looked at this month Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry leads challenger John Brooks 41-37.

-The most important state race this year besides Governor may actually be for the Supreme Court. In that nonpartisan race the de facto Democrat candidate, Sam Ervin IV, leads the Republican incumbent Paul Newby by a 31-23 margin. The 46% of voters undecided is not terribly surprising in a race where voters can't just go on party labels. Ervin is winning 44% of Democrats while only 37% of Republicans are currently committed to Newby.

Obama holds narrow edge in North Carolina

Raleigh, N.C.-- President Barack Obama added a couple of points to his slim margin over Mitt Romney in North Carolina that PPP found in a survey last month, bringing his current lead in the state to 3 points, at 49% to 46%. While Obama picked up two points in his approval rating to bring it to -1, Romney’s favorability experienced a drop of 5 points.

Independent voters have warmed up to the President considerably over the past month, turning towards Obama by 12 points, though still favoring Romney by a 48% to 44% mark. Obama’s approval rating has also improved among this key demographic, from a scathing -25 in July to -13 today.

This most recent survey includes results among North Carolina’s newer residents, asking both if respondents were born in the Tar Heel state and how long they have lived there. Obama’s entire margin comes from non native North Carolinians. In this group, the President leads 51% to 45%, while he is tied with Romney among natives at 47%.

Obama slightly ahead in NC

PPP's newest North Carolina poll continues to find an extremely close race for President in the state, with Barack Obama at 49% to 46% for Mitt Romney. PPP started monthly polling of this contest in November of 2010 and Obama and Romney have now been within 3 points of each 21 of the last 22 months.

North Carolina voters aren't thrilled with the job Obama's doing- 48% approve and 49% disapprove. But they continue to have pretty tepid feelings toward Romney with only 42% of voters rating him favorably to 50% who have a negative opinion of him.

This new poll really shows how in migration has changed the landscape for Presidential campaigns in North Carolina. Obama and Romney are tied at 47% among voters who were born in North Carolina. But among those who've moved into the state from somewhere else Obama has a 51/45 advantage.

The divide is even more stark when you look at how long folks have lived in North Carolina. Romney dominates among long time residents of the state, leading 54-41 with those who have been here for more than 30 years. But Obama's even stronger among North Carolina's newest residents, leading 58-37 with those who have been here less than 30 years and 66-27 with folks who have been here less than ten years. These sorts of numbers are why North Carolina's swing state status isn't likely to fade any time soon. The long term trends speak to continued Democratic competitiveness.