Public Policy Polling

Democrats still behind Clinton, four-way race for Republicans

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's monthly look at the 2016 Republican field for President finds essentially a 4 way tie at the top- Marco Rubio has 16%, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie 15% each, and Rand Paul 14%. Paul Ryan at 9%, Ted Cruz at 7%, Rick Santorum at 5%, Bobby Jindal at 3%, and Susana Martinez at 1% round out the potential candidates we tested.

It's now been almost 6 months since we started doing regular polling of the 2016 race. The only candidate who's shown any real momentum over that period of time is Paul, whose support has doubled from 7% to 14%. Rubio's shift from 18% to 16%, Bush's from 12% to 15%, and Christie's from 14 to 15% are all within the margin of error. It is worth noting though that this is the first time Rubio hasn't held at least a 4 point lead over the other Republican contenders.

4 way tie for Republicans, Clinton leads Dems

PPP's monthly look at the 2016 Republican field for President finds essentially a 4 way tie at the top- Marco Rubio has 16%, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie 15% each, and Rand Paul 14%. Paul Ryan at 9%, Ted Cruz at 7%, Rick Santorum at 5%, Bobby Jindal at 3%, and Susana Martinez at 1% round out the potential candidates we tested.

It's now been almost 6 months since we started doing regular polling of the 2016 race. The only candidate who's shown any real momentum over that period of time is Paul, whose support has doubled from 7% to 14%. Rubio's shift from 18% to 16%, Bush's from 12% to 15%, and Christie's from 14 to 15% are all within the margin of error. It is worth noting though that this is the first time Rubio hasn't held at least a 4 point lead over the other Republican contenders.

There hasn't been much movement on the Democratic side either. Hillary Clinton leads with 63% to 13% for Joe Biden, 4% for Andrew Cuomo, 3% for Mark Warner and Elizabeth Warren, 2% for Martin O'Malley, and 1% each for Kirsten Gillibrand, Deval Patrick, and Brian Schweitzer. Clinton led Biden 61-12 when we started polling on this in December. Clinton has at least 58% support with liberals, moderates, men, women, whites, African Americans, Hispanics, young voters, and seniors- in other words every key segment of the Democratic electorate.

Hillary Clinton would be dominant in New Hampshire in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – If Hillary Clinton runs for president in 2016, she would likely clear the Democratic primary field in New Hampshire and could put the general election swing state out of reach for Republicans, according to PPP’s latest poll.

In a nine-way Democratic primary contest, Clinton captures 68% support, followed distantly by 12% for Joe Biden, 9% for someone else or not sure, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, 2% for Deval Patrick, 1% for Kirsten Gillibrand and Martin O’Malley, and less than 1% for Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner.

In general election match-ups, Clinton would lead Rand Paul by 11 points, 52% to 41%, and Marco Rubio by 14 points, 52% to 38%. She holds sizeable leads with moderate voters against Paul (68/20) and Rubio (67/18).

Paul rising in New Hampshire

PPP's new poll of New Hampshire Republicans about 2016 finds momentum on Rand Paul's side. He leads the potential field with 28% to 25% for Marco Rubio, 14% for Chris Christie, 7% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Susana Martinez, and 1% each for Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal.

Paul has seen a huge increase in his support from when PPP last looked at New Hampshire in November, from 4% then to his current 28% standing. Also on the rise is Rubio who's gone up 11 points from 14% to 25%. On the down swing are Christie who's dropped 7 points from 21% and the lead then to 14% and 3rd place now, Bush who's dropped 4 points from 11% to 7%, and Ryan who's dropped 3 points from 10% to 7%.

Paul is benefiting from his appeal to independent voters. Rubio leads him 29/26 among voters who are actually registered as Republicans, but Paul's at 32% with independents to 19% for Christie and 17% for Rubio. Paul also leads Rubio with men (33/22) and younger voters (35/26), while Rubio has the upper hand with women (27/22) and seniors (35/14).

On the Democratic side desire for Hillary Clinton to be the party nominee next year has just increased even further from November. Then 60% of Democrats supported her, now that's up to 68% who want her as their candidate to 12% for Joe Biden, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, and 2% for Deval Patrick with nobody else over 1%. Clinton has over 50% support from men and women, young, middle aged, and old voters, 'very liberal,' 'somewhat liberal,' and 'moderate' voters, and both Democrats and independents.

Colorado voters support gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – Colorado voters like the civil unions bill the legislature passed earlier this year, supporting it by a 50/38 margin. But they'd also like to take it a step further, supporting full marriage rights for same sex couples by a 51/43 spread. Voters under 30 favor it by a 74/17 margin.

Although he is a strong favorite for reelection as Governor next year, there's not a lot of enthusiasm in Colorado for a 2016 John Hickenlooper Presidential bid. Only 21% of voters in the state think he should run to 65% who think he should not, and even among Democrats just 30% would like to see him run with 48% dissenting. Hickenlooper does hold a narrow 47/45 advantage over Rand Paul and Marco Rubio in hypothetical match ups. But even without the benefit of home state advantage Hillary Clinton does slightly better than Hickenlooper in the state, leading Paul 48/45 and Rubio 48/44.

Colorado favors gay marriage

-Colorado voters like the civil unions bill the legislature passed earlier this year, supporting it by a 50/38 margin. But they'd also like to take it a step further, supporting full marriage rights for same sex couples by a 51/43 spread. Voters under 30 favor it by a 74/17 margin.

-Although he is a strong favorite for reelection as Governor next year, there's not a lot of enthusiasm in Colorado for a 2016 John Hickenlooper Presidential bid. Only 21% of voters in the state think he should run to 65% who think he should not, and even among Democrats just 30% would like to see him run with 48% dissenting. Hickenlooper does hold a narrow 47/45 advantage over Rand Paul and Marco Rubio in hypothetical match ups. But even without the benefit of home state advantage Hillary Clinton does slightly better than Hickenlooper in the state, leading Paul 48/45 and Rubio 48/44.

Republican-sponsored bills draw public opposition in NC

Raleigh, N.C. – Pat McCrory continues to be popular despite strong disapproval of the Republicans running state government, according to PPP’s latest North Carolina poll.

With 49% approving and 36% disapproving of his job performance, voters still have a positive view of McCrory—in large part because 31% of registered Democrats approve of him. Public opinion of Republicans as a whole running state government is roughly reversed with just 38% approving and 52% disapproving. Just 20% of voters approve of the job the General Assembly is doing in Raleigh, while 56% are opposed. Democrats lead the general state legislative ballot 45% to 41% against Republicans.

Voters don’t support any of the GOP-sponsored bills that PPP tested. They narrowly oppose making Christianity the official state religion with 45% against the bill and 42% in favor, including 53% of Republicans, 41% of Democrats and 30% of independents.

NC voters oppose many GOP proposals

A pretty consistent picture is emerging in PPP's monthly look at how North Carolinians feel about state government: Pat McCrory's popularity is holding up well but the legislature and many of its high profile proposals continue to be extremely unpopular.

McCrory's approval rating is a +13 spread this month with 49% of voters approving and 36% disapproving of his performance. His numbers have been very consistent over the last 3 months- +14 in February, +14 in March, and now +13. Compared to his predecessor that's good news for McCrory- from February to April of her first year in office Bev Perdue went from +11 to +1 before dropping into negative territory in May and never recovering.

The Republicans as a whole are getting poor marks for their leadership over state government though- 38% of voters approve of the job they're doing to 52% who disapprove. That's largely a function of the legislature. Republicans legislators have a 34/53 favorability rating, and the General Assembly as a whole has just a 20% approval with 56% of voters disapproving of it.

A whole bevy of bills introduced by Republican legislators recently are proving to be quite unpopular:

Clinton and Paul are neck and neck in Kentucky

Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton is standing her ground in a historically red state with a favorability rating of 45% and an equal likelihood of voters choosing her over Rand Paul.

When asked whether they would vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Rand Paul, 45% of voters chose Clinton and 45% of voters chose Rand Paul. 10% of voters were unsure. Hillary Clinton does even better against Marco Rubio with a 6 point lead (46-40).

“Hillary Clinton’s competitiveness in Kentucky shows what a formidable Presidential candidate she would be in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Democrats haven’t been able to make it a race in Kentucky since her husband was on the ticket almost 20 years ago.”

Kentucky Miscellany

-PPP's newest Kentucky poll continues to find that Hillary Clinton would have the potential to make the state competitive in 2016, something no Democrat's been able to do since her husband was on the ballot. Clinton has a positive favorability rating at 45/43 in the state, an impressive feat for any national Democrat. She musters a tie with home state Senator Rand Paul at 45, and leads early Republican front runner Marco Rubio by a 46/40 margin.

Kentuckians are cool toward a potential Paul Presidential bid. 30% want him to run in 2016, while 50% think he should not. He would be the top choice of Republicans in the state though- 31% say he would be their preferred candidate to 17% for Rubio, 13% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Chris Christie, 4% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Paul Ryan, 2% each for Rick Perry and Rick Santorum, and 1% for Susana Martinez.

-Kentucky voters are evenly divided on the passage of stricter gun laws. 46% are supportive of them and 46% are opposed. Those kinds of numbers in a very conservative state like Kentucky reinforce national numbers showing pretty strong support for more stringent gun control.

-Support for gay marriage is on the rise nationally but it's going to be a long time before Kentucky voters get behind it. Only 27% of voters in the state think it should be legal, compared to 65% who think it should be illegal. Even among Democrats there's still 37/54 opposition. 52% of Kentuckians do though support at least civil unions for same sex couples compared to only 44% who believe those relationships should receive no legal recognition at all. That divide- opposition to marriage, support for civil unions- is what we find throughout most of the south.