Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton still leads her top potential opponents for 2016 in Michigan, but the margins are a good deal closer than they were 6 months ago. Clinton is up 43/40 on Chris Christie, 46/42 on Jeb Bush, 48/39 on Rand Paul, and 49/38 on Ted Cruz. This is the first time Cruz has been tested, but Clinton's average lead of 5 points over Christie, Bush, and Paul is quite a bit down from an average lead of 13 points over that trio when we polled the state in June. The decline in Clinton's leads mirrors what we found for Democrats in the races for Governor and Senate on this poll.
Rand Paul narrowly leads the Republican field in the state with 18% to 16% for Chris Christie, 15% for Ted Cruz, 10% for Jeb Bush, 8% for Marco Rubio, 7% for Paul Ryan, 5% for Scott Walker, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 2% for Rick Santorum. Christie win the moderates (31% to 15% for Paul and 8% for Cruz) and Cruz wins the voters identifying themselves as 'very conservative' (27% to 18% for Paul and 10% for Christie), but Paul leads overall because he's up with folks identifying as 'somewhat conservative' (21% to 10% for Cruz and 9% for Christie).