Public Policy Polling

NJ voters not mad at Christie’s blizzard response, ties Booker

Raleigh, N.C. – The national press has given Chris Christie a lot of flak for not abandoning his family vacation in Disney World during the recent snow storm, but apparently his constituents are not so mad at him, with a near majority thinking he made the right choice.  Voters are much more divided, however, on his handling of the blizzard and his overall job record.  And if he were to be challenged for re-election by popular Newark Mayor Cory Booker in 2013, it would be a dead-even race.

49% say they think Christie should have remained, as he did, in Florida, while 39% think he should have returned home instead.  53% of Democrats think he should have come back, but 34% go the other way, and the numbers with independents are reversed, 53-36 in favor of Disney World.  Predictably, Republicans strongly back their governor, 68-21.

Booker, Christie would fight to a draw

New Jersey voters were fine with Chris Christie staying at Disney World instead of coming back to deal with the snow storm the state had a couple weeks ago. But they're also very fond of Cory Booker and a hypothetical contest between the two of them in 2013 would start out as a tie.

First the Christie numbers: it's clear his handling of the snow storm has not and is not likely to do him any long term political damage. Voters are pretty evenly divided on his leadership regarding the storm- 43% approve and 44% disapprove- folks would have to be much more universal in their unhappiness with him for this to have a real impact on his overall political standing. Those numbers mostly reflect folks who already like him saying he did a good job and folks who already dislike him saying he did a bad job.

Focusing in more specifically on the question of whether he should have abandoned his vacation to deal with the storm, 49% of voters say Christie was right to stay at Disney World to just 39% who think he should have come back.

Although much of the focus on Christie's political future has been on a Presidential bid he's a long way from being able to take even a second term as Governor of New Jersey for granted, particularly if Newark Mayor Cory Booker were to challenge him two years from now. Booker is remarkably popular across the state with 46% of voters viewing him favorably to only 16% with a negative opinion. The number of politicians in the country with nearly 3:1 favorability ratings these days is pretty short.

What's most striking within the figures on Booker is how well liked he is across party lines. Although he is unsurprisingly most popular with Democrats at a 51/12 favorability, he also has a 47/17 spread with independents, and even a 36/21 with Republicans. There just aren't very many Democrats who Republicans like right now, especially in a state as polarized as New Jersey.

In a hypothetical contest between Booker and Christie the two tie at 42% each. Those numbers are actually misleadingly good for Christie though. 21% of Democrats are undecided in such a match up while only 7% of Republicans are. That's probably a reflection of 38% of voters in the state still not having an opinion about Booker. More likely than not most of those undecided Democrats would end up in Booker's camp if this match up ever did become a reality.

That a popular Democrat like Booker would probably defeat Christie if there was an election today shouldn't come as any real surprise. Christie's election was never about his being unusually popular- it was about Jon Corzine being unusually unpopular and even with Corzine's disapproval rating hovering up near 60% Christie could still only muster a 4 point victory in 2009.

Of course the good news for Christie is that he doesn't have to worry about any of this for quite a while yet. And his approval numbers are pretty good for a Republican in New Jersey. But it's clear that Booker's appeal goes well beyond the boundaries of Newark and he will be a formidable candidate for some future political office if he decides he wants to move up.

Full results here

2006 rematch closer but Menendez still beats Kean, others

Raleigh, N.C. – It was the closest re-election of any Democratic U.S. Senate incumbent that year, but at nine points, Robert Menendez’s margin over new State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr., in 2006 speaks to how strong a year it was for the Democratic Party.  If the two tangled again now, Menendez would barely squeak by, but he would beat two other potential opponents by much wider margins, looking ahead to his presumed 2012 bid for a second full and third partial term.

Menendez tops Kean now only 41-39 after soundly defeating him 53-44 just over four years ago.  But Menendez beats outspoken talk show host Lou Dobbs, 47-35, and Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno, 45-30.

Menendez vulnerable...to a point

Robert Menendez continues to post mediocre approval numbers and could have a difficult time in a rematch with 2006 Tom Kean Jr., PPP's newest New Jersey poll finds.

Voters in the state are pretty evenly divided on whether Menendez is doing a good job with 37% approving and 38% disapproving. Republicans are more unified in their unhappiness with Mendendez (67% disapproval) than Democrats are in their support for him (57% approval.) He also has a lot of work to do with independents, only 32% of whom currently give him good marks to 44% who say they're unhappy with him.

Despite his own less than ideal numbers, Menendez easily leads two of the people who have been discussed as possible opponents for him. He has a 47-35 advantage over TV host Lou Dobbs and an even wider 45-30 one over Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno. Dobbs' problem is that he is unpopular, sporting a 25/30 favorability breakdown. Guadagno's problem is that she is unknown- 72% of voters don't know enough about her to have formed an opinion.

Menendez would have a little more difficulty in a rematch with Tom Kean Jr., whose father PPP found in an October 2009 poll to be by far and away the state's most popular Governor of the last three decades. Menendez leads Kean, but only by a 41-39 margin, a good deal less than the 9 point victory he posted in that match up in the 2006 election. Although Kean Jr. has been quickly forgotten by voters in the state- 51% now say they have no opinion about him- the ones who do have a take rate him positively, with 31% saying they have a favorable opinion of him and 18% an unfavorable one.

Usually I'd say a Senator with a negative approval rating leading a little known challenger by only 2 points is in very, very serious trouble. But this is New Jersey and New Jersey is not like most places. Jon Corzine persistently had a disapproval number in the upper 50s, far greater than Menendez's 38%, and trailed by double digits in most polls up until the last 2 or 3 months of the campaign in 2009. For all of that in the end he lost by just 4 points. It takes a special level of unpopularity for an incumbent Democrat to lose in New Jersey and I'm not sure Menendez is there. Menendez will also be helped by the fact that Barack Obama is pretty strong in the state...it is difficult to imagine the President cruising to reelection by double digits and Menendez simultaneously losing. Nevertheless this certainly has the potential to be a competitive race and it's worth keeping an eye on.

Full results here

Obama would dominate Christie, others in NJ

Barack Obama would easily win New Jersey again if he had to stand for reelection today, even if Republicans put forth Chris Christie as their candidate. Obama leads Christie by a 17 point margin in a hypothetical contest, the same amount Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich trail by. Mitt Romney does the best of the leading Republican contenders in the state, trailing Obama by 15, and Sarah Palin has one of her worst performances in any state we've polled to date, lagging the President by a whooping 30 points.

Christie still has decent approval numbers for a Republican in a blue state, with 48% of voters happy with the job he's doing to 45% who express disapproval. Republicans are pretty unanimous in their support for his performance, independents give him a positive 55/39 spread, and even 23% of Democrats give him good marks which is not a bad amount of crossover support in this political climate. His popularity with Democrats and independents does not, however, extend to support in a possible Presidential bid. Only 7% of Democrats are actually willing to vote for him over Obama and with independents he just breaks even with Obama at 42%. That's quite a contrast to the enormous margin he won them by against Jon Corzine in 2009.

None of the other Republicans are competitive with Obama either. Part of that is a function of New Jersey voters generally being happy with the job the President's doing- 51% of them approve of his job performance to 43% disapproving. It's obviously a strongly blue leaning state to begin with and beyond that there are more GOP voters- 12% who approve of Obama than there are Democrats- 9%- who disapprove. Obama continues to lack popularity with independents in the state but his good numbers with Democrats outweigh that.

Beyond Obama's popularity though the current crop of top Republicans simply has very little appeal to voters in New Jersey. Mitt Romney with a 35/41 favorability and Mike Huckabee at 32/41 have marginally bad numbers. Newt Gingrich at 29/49 and Sarah Palin at 27/65 have exceptionally poor ones. Most telling, none of the GOP hopefuls wins greater than 9% of the Democratic vote against Obama- it is simply not possible for a Republican to win a state as dark blue as New Jersey without more support across party lines than that.

Barack Obama has a lot of worries as he gears up to seek reelection next year, but it doesn't look like winning New Jersey again is one of them.

Full results here

A small piece of hope

We haven't had much positive to say for Democrats lately but here's a little glimmer of hope: in the New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Virginia elections so far this cycle the enthusiasm gap has lessened as the election got closer. It wasn't enough to save Jon Corzine, Martha Coakley, or Creigh Deeds but it could be a difference maker in a close race.

A Virginia poll we conducted in late July and early August last year found a likely electorate that supported John McCain by 11 points. Our second to last poll there, which predicted Bob McDonnell's final margin of victory almost right on the dot, found that improved to McCain +4.

Our mid September New Jersey poll last year found an electorate that was Obama +2. Our final poll there found that improved all the way to Obama +11 and that's a big reason why Corzine ended up losing only by 4 points instead of the 9 point deficit he had a month and a half before the election.

And in Massachusetts two weekends before the election we were looking at an Obama +16 electorate, which improved to an Obama +19 one the weekend before the election. That didn't save Coakley though after her gaffe filled final week.

Similar upticks in enthusiasm this year won't keep the election from being a bloodbath for Democrats but it could make the difference for some candidates, particularly those in close races in states with particularly large enthusiasm gaps. Three specifics names come to mind. Our last Illinois poll found Alexi Giannoulias ahead by 2 points with an Obama +9 electorate in a state he actually won by 25 points. Our last Wisconsin poll found Russ Feingold up 2 points with an Obama +1 electorate in a state that he won by 14 points. And our last Nevada poll found Harry Reid ahead by 2 points with an Obama +4 electorate in a state that he won by 12. A small increase in Democratic interest in those states could ensure those guys pull out narrow victories.

The 2012 Senate Picture

Our Pennsylvania poll this week found Bob Casey's approval rating in negative territory at 31% approving and 38% disapproving of his job performance. That's yet another data point suggesting a very tough cycle for Democrats on the Senate front in 2012. Last week we found Claire McCaskill at 38/51 in Missouri, two weeks ago we found Sherrod Brown at 32/39 in Ohio, and four weeks ago we found Bill Nelson at 37/40 in Florida. In New Jersey and Virginia polling last fall we found Bob Menendez at 34/45, and although we found Jim Webb in positive territory we also found him losing a hypothetical contest to George Allen.

Do all these upside down approval numbers mean these folks are going to lose? Not necessarily- this may be a low water point for Democrats and things could be completely different by 2012. What the data does suggest is that few of these folks are going to coast to reelection- they may win but they're going to have to fight pretty hard for it.

That's a big contrast from the Republican Senate class of 2004. Lisa Murkowski, John Thune, Tom Coburn, Johnny Isakson, and Jim DeMint are all coasting to reelection now after first being elected then with only David Vitter and Richard Burr facing serious opposition.

Democrats really need to cut their losses this year because it is not going to be a favorable playing field the next time around.

The Corzine Line

Jon Corzine's approval was a net -23 on our final poll before the New Jersey Governor's race, with 34% of voters in the state giving him good marks and 57% bad ones. Anyone polling below the Corzine line seems like a pretty good bet to be defeated.

There are actually only three politicians up for reelection this year in our recent polling who find themselves in that category. One is Blanche Lincoln at 27/62, who most political observers do expect to lose. Another is Deval Patrick at 22/59. He may be saved by the presence of a third party candidate in his race but it's still really hard to see him surviving with those kind of approval numbers. The third is Pat Quinn, whose approval is 25/53 in numbers we'll release tomorrow. That's pretty unpopular but it's also a really Democratic state- will the negative feelings about Quinn or the overall blue tone of the state dictate what happens this fall? We'll give you some early answers tomorrow.

Indistinguishable Senate Delegations

One of the things I found interesting about our Alabama poll was how indistinguishable Jeff Sessions and Richard Shelby's approval numbers are. Shelby's at a positive 44/34 spread and Sessions is at 41/34. It's really not that surprising though- unless you are an avid follower of the Senate, what is the difference between Sessions and Shelby? They're both conservative Republicans who don't draw a whole lot of national media attention.

Alabama's one of five states we've polled in the last six months where voters felt pretty much the same way about both of their Senators. The others are:

-New Mexico, where Jeff Bingaman and Tom Udall's numbers are literally identical at 48/36 each.

-Maine, where Olympia Snowe's at 51/36 and Susan Collins is at 48/30.

-Georgia, where Saxby Chambliss is at 38/43 and Johnny Isaskon's at 36/38

-New Jersey, where Frank Lautenberg's at 36/45 and Bob Menendez is at 34/45.

Campaign Committee Chair Curse?

Is there a campaign committee curse on politician approval ratings?

The Texas numbers we put out today showed NRSC chair John Cornyn with a super mediocre 32/30 approval spread, with 37% of voters having no opinion about him. Is all of his traveling around the country making his constituents forget who he is?

We found an even more negative picture for DSCC chair Bob Menendez the last time we polled on him in October- 34% approval to 45% disapproval.

Their predecessors from the 2006 and 2008 election cycles aren't doing too hot either- Elizabeth Dole was defeated in 2008 after serving in 2006 and John Ensign has seen his political stock crumble because of his personal foibles after doing the NRSC gig in 2008. And Chuck Schumer's in the best shape of the bunch but even he's seeing his lowest approval ratings in years right now.

One thing seems likely- Menendez in 2012 and Cornyn in 2014 may have to put their primary focus on their own prospects for reelection and ditch the national stuff.