Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Gingrich still rising

Last night we went into the field in Florida and Montana- we'll have the results of those polls out tomorrow after another night of calls but the early indications are that Newt Gingrich will have a double digit lead in both states- he has not peaked yet and is still on an upward curve.

If Herman Cain really ends up dropping out of the race Gingrich's surge should continue in the next few weeks, unless/until something starts happening to erode his popularity. Why? Because Cain's supporters absolutely love Gingrich. And they absolutely hate Mitt Romney.

Our last national survey found that Gingrich's favorability with Cain voters was 73/21. Meanwhile Romney's was 33/55.  That's the same basic trend we've seen in every Republican primary poll we've done in the month of November. On average in 7 polls we've done this month Gingrich's favorability with Cain voters is 69/22. Romney's average is  31/57. In other words Gingrich's net favorability is 73 points better with Cain supporters than Romney's. Here's how they stack up:

Location	Gingrich fav	Romney fav	Difference
National	73/21 (+52)	33/55 (-22)	74
Ohio	69/18 (+51)	32/50 (-18)	69
Mississippi	63/25 (+38)	25/62 (-37)	75
Iowa SD-18	74/19 (+55)	42/48 (-6)	61
California	60/30 (+30)	30/56 (-26)	56
Arizona	71/15 (+56)	25/62 (-37)	93
Pennsylvania	70/26 (+44)	27/69 (-42)	86

Given how much more Cain supporters like Gingrich than Romney, it's not surprising that most of them say Gingrich is their second voting choice behind Cain.  On average across six polls we've asked a second choice question on this month 37% of Cain voters pick Gingrich to only 13% for Romney.  In fact Romney isn't any more likely to be the second choice of Cain supporters than Michele Bachmann (14%) or Rick Perry (12%). Here's all the data on that:

Location	Gingrich	Romney	Bachmann	Perry
Ohio	38%	19%	10%	12%
Mississippi	28%	17%	12%	19%
Iowa SD-18	24%	10%	22%	16%
California	42%	12%	14%	8%
Arizona	39%	10%	15%	11%
Pennsylvania	49%	10%	9%	7%
Average	37%	13%	14%	12%

If Herman Cain's support fades to zero in the next few weeks, whether because he drops out or because people abandon him because of all his issues, Newt Gingrich is going to keep on climbing.  He's going to get stronger before he gets weaker. Gingrich's fall may come and if history is any guide in this race it will probably come before Iowa. But in the short term Cain's issues should mean Gingrich just keeps on gaining.

Romney's Fading Popularity

You want to know the biggest reason Mitt Romney hasn't surged at any point in the Republican Presidential race this year? It's because the more GOP primary voters across the country have been exposed to him, the less they've liked him.

There are 13 places PPP has polled the Republican race in October or November where it also did a poll sometime between January and March.  In those places Romney's net favorability has dropped by an average of 15 points over the course of the year.

On average Romney's favorability with primary voters was 54/25 in these 13 places at the begininng of the year. Now it's only 50/35. His problem is partially that his positives have gone down but more than that it's that as his name recognition has increased, most folks moving off the fence have gone into the negative column.

What's most remarkable about the decline in Romney's popularity is how uniform it's been- he's less popular now than he was at the start of the year in all 13 places where there are polls to compare. And in 11 out of the 13 places that decline in his net favorability has been at least 14 points- the only places with more modest declines are Maine and North Carolina.

This is why as Donald Trump and Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry and Herman Cain have risen and fallen Romney hasn't seen any increase in his support- GOP voters just simply aren't warming up to him at all- in fact they're going in the other direction.

Here's the full data:

State	Romney in Jan/Feb/Mar	Romney in Oct/Nov	Shift
West Virginia	56/18 (+38)	42/27 (+15)	-23
Pennsylvania	52/25 (+27)	46/39 (+7)	-20
Arizona	62/22 (+40)	56/34 (+22)	-18
Ohio	53/26 (+27)	47/37 (+10)	-17
Nebraska	51/23 (+28)	45/34 (+11)	-17
Iowa	57/26 (+31)	51/36 (+15)	-16
Nevada	70/18 (+52)	63/27 (+36)	-16
Mississippi	48/36 (+12)	40/44 (-4)	-16
National	52/28 (+24)	48/39 (+9)	-15
California	59/22 (+37)	55/33 (+22)	-15
Wisconsin	49/25 (+24)	47/37 (+10)	-14
Maine	47/31 (+16)	51/37 (+14)	-2
North Carolina	50/26 (+24)	53/30 (+23)	-1

Mississippi Voters on a Variety of Topics

Raleigh, N.C. – One symptom of the losing ways of the Houston Nutt years at Ole Miss is that the Rebels have fallen to being only the third most popular college sports team in the state: 36% of voters say that Mississippi State is their favorite school to 27% for Southern Mississippi and only 21% for Mississippi. That decline in fan support in and of itself might prove that a change was badly needed.

-Ole Miss may get its mascot back though- 52% of voters say they would support a constitutional amendment to designate Colonel Reb as the school's official mascot to only 22% who say they would oppose such a move at this time. White voters with an opinion on the matter pretty universally support it, 62/14, and although black voters oppose it 19-46 that opposition is not as unanimous as the support from whites at this point.

Mississippi Miscellany

-One symptom of the losing ways of the Houston Nutt years at Ole Miss is that the Rebels have fallen to being only the third most popular college sports team in the state: 36% of voters say that Mississippi State is their favorite school to 27% for Southern Mississippi and only 21% for Mississippi. That decline in fan support in and of itself might prove that a change was badly needed.

-Ole Miss may get its mascot back though- 52% of voters say they would support a constitutional amendment to designate Colonel Reb as the school's official mascot to only 22% who say they would oppose such a move at this time. White voters with an opinion on the matter pretty universally support it, 62/14, and although black voters oppose it 19-46 that opposition is not as unanimous as the support from whites at this point.

No hope for Obama in Mississippi

Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP last took a look at President Obama’s re-election effort in Mississippi back in March, he was actually trailing a few of his potential opponents by single-digit margins.  That is no longer the case.  All but one of the six Republicans tested against him in the latest survey beat Obama by larger spreads than John McCain’s 13-point win three years ago.

Mitt Romney, as nearly everywhere, tops the president by the largest amount, 18 points (54-36), up 12 points from a six-point lead in March.  Rick Perry and Herman Cain each lead by 17 (55-38 and 54-37, respectively); neither was tested eight months ago.  Newt Gingrich leads by 16 (54-38), up 10 points from March.  Ron Paul is up 15 (52-37), and Michele Bachmann by 12 (52-40); neither was polled last time.  The Republicans lead by 23 to 44 points with independents, and take 12-13% of the Democratic vote.

Obama getting trounced in Mississippi

We have our most shocking poll results of the week for you today: President Obama can write Mississippi off his target list.

When we last took a look at his re-election effort in Mississippi back in March, Obama was actually trailing a few of his potential opponents by single-digit margins.  That is no longer the case.  All but one of the six Republicans tested against him in the latest survey beat Obama by larger spreads than John McCain’s 13-point win three years ago.

Mitt Romney, as nearly everywhere, tops the president by the largest amount, 18 points (54-36), up 12 points from a six-point lead in March.  Rick Perry and Herman Cain each lead by 17 (55-38 and 54-37, respectively); neither was tested eight months ago.  Newt Gingrich leads by 16 (54-38), up 10 points from March.  Ron Paul is up 15 (52-37), and Michele Bachmann by 12 (52-40); neither was polled last time.

Wicker leads comfortably for re-election in Mississippi

Raleigh, N.C. – It was probably never on any Democrat’s list of targets for next year, but the Mississippi Senate race looks out of reach for whichever Democrat agrees to be their sacrificial lamb against freshman Roger Wicker.  56% approve and 23% disapprove of Wicker’s performance, up from 51-23 when PPP last polled the state in March.  That ties him for the seventh most popular of 87 sitting senators on which PPP has polled.  While Wicker does not match that +33 approval margin in the re-election horse races, he leads any Democrat thrown at him by 13 to 26 points, up from 10 to 18.

No chance for Democrats in MS-Sen.

Mississippi's Initiative 26 surged from certain passage to overwhelming defeat in a matter of about two weeks as voters soundly rejected conservatives' attempt to restrict abortion rights and birth control accessibility yesterday.  But unless Roger Wicker commits some atrocious crime or affront to the state's sensibility like this amendment posed, Democrats can't expect a similar turnaround in their quest to unseat the freshman senator next fall.

Wicker is a rather popular and inoffensive figure.  56% approve and 23% disapprove of his job performance, up from 51-23 when we last polled the state in March.  That ties him for the seventh-best-liked of 87 sitting senators we've polled on.  So not even a popular and moderate-to-conservative candidate with statewide or congressional experience can come close to toppling Wicker right now.  He doesn't match that +33 approval margin in any of the re-election horse races, but he leads any Democrat thrown at him by 13 to 26 points, up from 10 to 18 seven months ago.

Wicker’s closest matchup at this point would be against Attorney General Jim Hood, who was overwhelmingly re-elected yesterday. Wicker tops him by 13 points (52-39), making Hood the only of the five tested opponents who does even a point better than he did in March. Against the others, Wicker has gained. He tops former A.G. Mike Moore by 14 points (53-39), up four from March. Wicker leads former Rep. Gene Taylor by 21 (55-34), up nine. He also leads his 2008 opponent, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, by 25 (58-33), up eight from March and 14 or 15 from three years ago. Finally, Wicker leads Rep. Travis Childers by 26 (56-30), up eight.