Public Policy Polling

Clinton’s popularity soars in Florida while Rubio stumbles

Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton now leads Florida’s own Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio by double-digit margins in 2016 presidential match-ups as her popularity continues to climb in the state, according to PPP’s latest poll.

Clinton leads Bush by 13 points (53/40), Paul Ryan by 13 points (54/41) and Rubio by 16 points (56/40). This is a significant gain from January, when Clinton led Bush by 5 points and Rubio by 4 points. Clinton now claims 20-24% of the Republican vote and 55-58% of the independent vote against each of her potential Republican opponents. Her favorability has jumped to +19 (56/37) from an 11-point spread (52/41) two months ago.

Rubio’s job approval, meanwhile, has taken a big hit in Florida. His numbers are barely above water with 44% approving and 43% disapproving of his performance in the Senate. This represents a significant decrease from his +13 (49/36) job approval in January. The poll finds a drop in support from moderates and independents. 37% of Florida voters support Rubio running for president in 2016 while 53% are opposed to the idea.  Jeb Bush’s favorability numbers have held steady in the past two months—he’s at +13 (50/37) compared to +16 (51/35) two months ago. Just 33% of Florida voters think he should run for president in 2016 while 53% disagree.

Floridians tepid on Bush, Rubio bids

Floridians aren't enthusiastic about either Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio running for President in 2016, and Hillary Clinton would crush either of them in the state at this point.

Our newest poll finds that just 33% of Sunshine State voters think Bush should make a 2016 White House bid, compared to 51% who think he should sit it out. There is only a little bit more enthusiasm for a Rubio candidacy, with 37% of voters saying they think he should take the plunge while 53% think he should not. Among Republican voters 60% want Rubio to run, compared to 53% who think Bush should.

Hillary Clinton is a good deal more popular than either Bush or Rubio in the state, and would lead both of them by double digits in hypothetical match ups. 56% of voters have a favorable opinion of her compared to 37% with a negative one. She leads Bush 53/40 and Rubio 56/40 head to head, and also has a 54/41 advantage over Paul Ryan. She leads the Republicans by margins of 17-24 points with independents.

Support for gay marriage in Pennsylvania on the rise

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's found a net 14 point increase in support for gay marriage in Pennsylvania over the last year and a half. Voters in the state are now almost evenly divided on the issue with 45% thinking it should be legal and 47% believing it should continue to be illegal. In November of 2011 we found only 36% support and 52% opposition for gay marriage among Keystone State voters. Seniors continue to be opposed to gay marriage by a 28/62 margin, but voters under 45 support it 58/35, suggesting that it's only a matter of time.

Civil unions for same sex couples are pretty uncontroversial now with voters in the state. 74% support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 24% of voters opposed to any sort of legal recognition for gay couples. Even among Republicans there's 68% support for one or the other.

Pennsylvania Miscellany

-PPP's found a net 14 point increase in support for gay marriage in Pennsylvania over the last year and a half. Voters in the state are now almost evenly divided on the issue with 45% thinking it should be legal and 47% believing it should continue to be illegal. In November of 2011 we found only 36% support and 52% opposition for gay marriage among Keystone State voters. Seniors continue to be opposed to gay marriage by a 28/62 margin, but voters under 45 support it 58/35, suggesting that it's only a matter of time.

Civil unions for same sex couples are pretty uncontroversial now with voters in the state. 74% support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 24% of voters opposed to any sort of legal recognition for gay couples. Even among Republicans there's 68% support for one or the other.

-Pennsylvanians support an assault weapons ban by a 52/39 margin. It has majority support from independents, and even 36% of Republicans support it. Voters in the state favor stronger gun laws in general by a 53/41 margin, and by a 42/43 margin have an unfavorable opinion of the NRA.

-Bob Casey is Pennsylvania's most popular politician with a net +9 approval rating at 45/36. That makes him a good deal more well liked than junior colleague Pat Toomey who's at -3 with 34% of voters approving of him and 37% disapproving. Voters in the state are evenly divided in their feelings about Barack Obama- 48% approve and 48% disapprove.

Clinton would beat Walker, Ryan in Wisconsin in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – Wisconsin voters would pick Hillary Clinton over their state’s own Scott Walker or Paul Ryan for president in 2016, according to PPP’s latest Wisconsin poll.

Clinton leads Ryan 51% to 43%, Walker 54% to 41% and Marco Rubio 52% to 38%. She has a formidable +19 favorability rating, with 56% of voters holding a favorable opinion to 37% unfavorable. Clinton’s strong numbers stem from her popularity with moderates (71/20) and independent voters (58/34). Ryan’s favorability is evenly split at 46%.

In the GOP primary, Ryan leads with 35% support without Walker included, and Walker leads with 33% support without Ryan in the mix. In both cases Rubio is a close second (27% against Walker, 22% against Ryan) and Chris Christie is a distant third at 10%.

Clinton tied or ahead against GOP candidates in Louisiana

Raleigh, N.C. – Louisiana was not on anyone’s list of battleground states in 2012, but it might be in 2016 if Hillary Clinton runs for president, according to PPP’s latest poll.

Clinton is tied with Paul Ryan at 46%, and she leads Marco Rubio 46/43 and Bobby Jindal 48/45. 66% of voters in his home state do not think Jindal should run for president in 2016. The state’s voters have a narrowly favorable opinion of Clinton, 46% to 44%.

These results are within the margin of error, but they are indicative of Clinton’s unmatched appeal to moderate voters. 67% of moderates have a favorable view of Clinton to 25% unfavorable. Even 23% of somewhat conservative voters view her favorably, and these numbers hold up in match-ups against each of the GOP candidates.

Louisiana Miscellany

-Louisiana could have a fun race for Governor in 2015. New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu is seen pretty positively statewide, with 49% of voters rating him favorably to 26% with an unfavorable opinion. In a hypothetical contest with Senator David Vitter, who has a 46/38 approval rating, the two would be tied at 44%. Landrieu would have a slight edge over Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne at 44-42. If Landrieu decided to run it appears that it would be a competitive race.

-Louisiana mirrors what we find in most southern states when it comes to legal rights for same sex couples- its voters oppose gay marriage but would support civil unions. Only 29% of voters in the state think same sex marriage should be legal to 59% who believe it should be illegal. But 54% of voters at least support civil unions to only 41% who think there should be no recognition at all for gay couples.

-59% of voters in the state think that the Saints' bounty program was inappropriate...but 60% also think that the NFL's punishment of the franchise was too strict. Sean Payton's image hasn't suffered any damage from the whole scandal- 74% of people in Louisiana see him positively to 6% with a negative opinion. Drew Brees is one of the most popular people PPP's ever polled on anywhere- 86% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to just 4% with an unfavorable one. One person not doing too well there is Roger Goodell- he has a 17/42 favorability spread.

Begich and Parnell looking strong for 2014 re-election bids

Raleigh, N.C. – Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Sean Parnell both appear to be in strong positions for re-election in their 2014 Alaska Senate and governor’s races respectively, according to PPP’s latest poll.

Voters narrowly approve of Parnell’s job performance 46% to 44%, and he is much better known than his potential Democratic challengers. Parnell leads Ethan Berkowitz by 9 points (50/41), Scott McAdams by 18 points (52/34), Mike Navarre by 22 points (51/29) and Joe Paskvan by 26 points (51/25). Only 34% want Parnell to run for governor while 10% want him to run for Senate and 49% don’t want him to run for either office.

Voters approve of Begich’s job performance by a wider margin, 49% to 39%, and independents approve of Begich 54% to 32%. Begich also gets approval from 24% of Republican voters. If Parnell ran for Senate against Begich, the two would be tied at 48% each. Otherwise Begich leads Dan Sullivan by 6 points (47/41), Mead Treadwell by 8 points (47/39) and Sarah Palin by 16 points (54/38).

Clinton, Rubio lead primary contests

Raleigh, N.C. – New PPP polls both nationally and in Iowa find Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton leading the way for their party's respective 2016 nominations, with Clinton leading Rubio by 8 points in a hypothetical head to head.

For the third month in a row in our national 2016 GOP tracking Rubio leads the way. He's at 22% to 15% for Paul Ryan, 13% each for Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 10% for Rand Paul, 4% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Rick Perry, and 1% for Susana Martinez. Rubio continues to lead based on his appeal to the furthest right segment of the Republican Party- he's at 28% with 'very conservative' voters to 15% for Huckabee and 14% for Ryan.

Rubio's tied for the lead in Iowa as well. It's a closely contested picture there with he and Huckabee both at 16%, followed by Paul at 15%, Bush at 14%, Christie at 12%, Ryan at 10%, Martinez at 4%, and Jindal and Perry at 3%. Rubio leads with conservatives there as well but polls so far behind Huckabee with moderates that it's just a tie overall.

Looking ahead to 2016 nationally and in Iowa

New PPP polls both nationally and in Iowa find Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton leading the way for their party's respective 2016 nominations, with Clinton leading Rubio by 8 points in a hypothetical head to head.

For the third month in a row in our national 2016 GOP tracking Rubio leads the way. He's at 22% to 15% for Paul Ryan, 13% each for Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 10% for Rand Paul, 4% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Rick Perry, and 1% for Susana Martinez. Rubio continues to lead based on his appeal to the furthest right segment of the Republican Party- he's at 28% with 'very conservative' voters to 15% for Huckabee and 14% for Ryan.

Rubio's tied for the lead in Iowa as well. It's a closely contested picture there with he and Huckabee both at 16%, followed by Paul at 15%, Bush at 14%, Christie at 12%, Ryan at 10%, Martinez at 4%, and Jindal and Perry at 3%. Rubio leads with conservatives there as well but polls so far behind Huckabee with moderates that it's just a tie overall. One other interesting finding in Iowa is that Chris Christie has only a 36/33 favorability rating with Republicans in the state, including 36/38 with 'very conservative' ones.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to dominate both nationally and in Iowa. Nationally she's at 58% to 19% for Joe Biden, 8% for Elizabeth Warren, and 3% for Andrew Cuomo. She's even stronger in Iowa at 68% to 21% for Biden with no one else over 2%. Her favorability rating with Democrats there is 90/5.