Public Policy Polling

Maine Miscellany

-Maine voters are leaning towards legalizing gay marriage, but it looks like it will be probably be close. 52% of voters say that they plan to vote yes on Question 1 to 44% who are opposed. When we ask simply whether or not voters think same sex marriage should be legal, 52% say it should be while 40% think it should not. Our experience in polling these kinds of issues is that undecided usually means no so this really should be seen as a toss up with gay marriage supporters barely over the 50% mark- there's not a lot of room for error in the final seven weeks.

There's a pretty significant gender gap on this issue with women supporting Question1 58-38, while men oppose it 50/47. There's a major divide along generational lines as well with voters under 65 support it by a 56/41 margin, but those over 65 opposing it 53/41.

-Paul LePage continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 37% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove.  He trails a generic Democratic opponent for reelection by a 48/40 margin, including 45/38 with independents. Of course LePage got elected in 2010 with less than 40% of the vote so if there's a strong independent candidate and that person and the Democratic candidate cannibalize each other enough LePage could continue to be really unpopular and get himself reelected anyway. Probably related to voters' unhappiness with LePage, Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot in the state by a 48/37 margin.

King leads by only 8 points in Maine Senate race

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest poll on the Maine Senate race finds it much closer than expected, with independent Angus King leading with 43% to 35% for Republican Charlie Summers, and 14% for Democrat Cynthia Dill.

King's popularity is not what it was at the beginning of the campaign. 52% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 35% with an unfavorable one. That +17 spread is down a net 21 points from March when he was at +38 with 62% of voters rating him positively and 24% holding a negative opinion. The drop in King's popularity has been across the board, but it's particularly acute with Republicans. He's gone from 43/38 with them to now 22/65. His declines with independents (from 69/20 to 57/30) and Democrats (from 74/14 to 69/19) have been more modest.

King lead now only 8 points

PPP's newest poll on the Maine Senate race finds it much closer than expected, with independent Angus King leading with 43% to 35% for Republican Charlie Summers, and 14% for Democrat Cynthia Dill.

King's popularity is not what it was at the beginning of the campaign. 52% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 35% with an unfavorable one. That +17 spread is down a net 21 points from March when he was at +38 with 62% of voters rating him positively and 24% holding a negative opinion. The drop in King's popularity has been across the board, but it's particularly acute with Republicans. He's gone from 43/38 with them to now 22/65. His declines with independents (from 69/20 to 57/30) and Democrats (from 74/14 to 69/19) have been more modest.

It's reaching the point where King may need to more explicitly say he's going to organize as a Democrat if he wants to win this race. King is winning only 13% of the Republican vote at this point, but he's losing 26% of the Democratic vote to Dill.  Among those already voting for King 64% want him to caucus with the Democrats if he's elected to only 9% who want him to side with the Republicans and 27% who are undecided. So he has more to gain by bringing Democrats voting for Dill into the fold than he does to lose by antagonizing his small number of Republican leaning supporters.

Obama crushing Republican field in Maine

Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama leads each of his potential Republican challengers in Maine by 15 points or more, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. The President leads Mitt Romney in Maine 58-35 (up from 49-38 the last time PPP polled the matchup in October), leads Rick Santorum 58-35, and leads Newt Gingrich 60-32 (up from 55-35 compared to last October).  Ron Paul actually performs best against Obama but still loses by 16 points, 54-38.

The Republican candidates suffer from horrific favorability ratings. Mitt Romney is viewed favorably by just 30% of voters compared to 63% who view him unfavorably (down from 38-49 last October). Rick Santorum sits at 29% favorable and 63% unfavorable. Newt Gingrich sees the worst favorability rating of the group at 17% favorable and 74% unfavorable (somehow down even further compared to where he was last October at 25-63). Ron Paul once again performs best, with a 34% favorable and 54% unfavorable opinion rating (up slightly from 24-57 last October).

Obama standing much improved in Maine

Maine pretty well represents the significant upgrade Barack Obama's seen in his reelection prospects over the last four months.  When PPP polled there in late October he led Mitt Romney by only 11 points, 49-38. That represented a 6 point tightening from Obama's margin of victory over John McCain there in 2008. Since then Obama's Maine lead has more than doubled to 23 points at 58-35 against Romney, representing a 6 point improvement on his 2008 numbers.

It's not hard to explain Obama's improved numbers: he's getting more popular, and Romney's getting less popular. In October Obama was slightly under water in the state at 47/48.  Now he's quite popular with 55% of voters approving of him to 41% who disapprove.

There are two big reasons for his improvement, and these are things we're seeing most places right now:

-The Democratic base is unifying around him. In October he was at 75/17 with his party's voters, now it's 86/10. The more Democratic voters see the Republican candidate field, the more they forgive Obama for not being completely perfect and get behind him.

-Obama's flipped independents from giving him negative reviews (46/49) to positive ones (54/38).

Meanwhile Romney's headed in the opposite direction. His numbers were already poor in October at a 38/49 favorability spread. But they're much worse now with only 30% of voters seeing him favorably to 63% with a negative opinion.

Maine has voters' remorse on Governor LePage

Raleigh, N.C. – Maine voters regret electing Republican Paul LePage Governor and would choose Independent Eliot Cutler if they could do the 2010 election over again, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. When asked who they would vote for if they could do the election over, 43% of Maine voters chose Eliot Cutler, 35% chose Paul LePage, and 19% chose Democrat Libby Mitchell. LePage suffers from a negative job approval rating, with just 41% of voters approving of his job performance and 52% disapproving.

Democrats are in strong position to make gains in the State Legislature, with 51% of voters saying they’d generally vote for Democratic candidates if the election were held today and just 37% of voters saying they’d vote for a Republican candidate. Among independent voters, 42% say they would vote for Democrats and 28% say they’d vote for a Republican.

A majority of Maine voters say same-sex marriage should be legal, by a 54-41 margin. A plurality of voters (47-32) favor a law that would allow “marriage licenses for same-sex couples that protects religious freedom by ensuring that no religion or clergy be required to perform such a marriage in violation of their religious beliefs.”

Maine Miscellany

-It looks like Maine voters will reverse their 2009 decision and legalize gay marriage in the state this fall. 54% think that gay marriage should be legal to only 41% who think it should be illegal. And when we asked about the issue using the exact language voters will see on the ballot this fall, they say they're inclined to support the referendum by a 47-32 margin.

There's some indication that the exact ballot language is confusing people a little at this point. Only 67% of those who support gay marriage in general say they'll vote yes while 12% say they'll not and 21% are not sure. At the same time just 60% of those who oppose gay marriage generally say they'll vote against the proposed referendum, while 24% say they'll vote for it and 16% are not sure. My guess is at the end of the day voters will see this as a straight referendum on gay marriage regardless of what the language on the ballot says- and the 54/41 number bodes well for pro-equality voters.

Republicans' opinions are pretty much the same as they were in 2009. But Democrats' support for gay marriage has increased slightly, from 71% to 78%. And more importantly independents have gone from voting against gay marriage 52/46 three years ago to now supporting it by a 57/36 margin.

-In the wake of her retirement announcement Olympia Snowe has tied colleagues Daniel Inouye and John Barrasso for the highest approval rating PPP has ever found for a Senator. 69% of voters like the job she's doing to only 26% who disapprove. She gets her best numbers with Democrats (76/20), followed by independents (72/23), then Republicans (57/36).

King tops three-way ME-Sen. race, Pingree leads two-ways

Raleigh, N.C. – Olympia Snowe’s decision to retire rather than seek another term in the Senate jolted the political world last week and gave Democrats a huge opportunity to pick up a seat and possibly even retain control of the Senate.  In PPP’s first look at the now open seat, Rep. Chellie Pingree looks to be an early favorite, both in the potential Democratic primary and in the general election, should she jump into the race.  But popular former independent Gov. Angus King would narrowly lead a three-way contest and potentially complicate Democrats’ plans.

Pingree tops former Gov. John Baldacci and former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap in a three-way primary, 52-28-11.  Baldacci leads the six GOP hopefuls tested by an average of about eight points, but Pingree leads the same candidates by an average of about 16 points.  That is because Pingree is better liked personally.  47% see her favorably and 41% unfavorably, 21 points better on the margin than Baldacci’s 37-52.

King, Pingree top candidates in Maine

Angus King is easily the most popular of the potential Maine Senate candidates, and looks like he would start out as a slight favorite in the race.

62% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of King to only 24% with a negative one. His appeal crosses party lines- he's at his most popular with Democrats (74/14), but he's almost as well liked with independents (69/20). And even with Republicans he's above water at 43/38.

In a three way contest with Chellie Pingree as the Democrat and Charlie Summers as the Republican King leads with 36% to 31% for Pingree and 28% for Summers. It's possible King could be a spoiler but it's more likely he'd be a Senator. King wins 53% of the independent vote, takes 35% of Democrats, and gets 25% of Republicans.

King's supporters are pretty clear on which side they'd want him to take in the Senate: 51% say they would want him to caucus with the Democrats to only 25% who would want him to go with the Republicans. If there ends up being a strong Democratic candidate in the race he may need to pledge to organize with the Democrats in order to hold on to his initial support with the party's voters.

If King wasn't running, Pingree would be the strong favorite to replace Olympia Snowe. 52% of Democrats want her to be the party nominee, compared to only 28% for John Baldacci and 11% for Matt Dunlap. And she would lead all of the potential Republican candidates we tested in the general election by margins ranging anywhere from 12 to 21 points. Pingree has solid if not spectacular statewide favorability numbers- 47% see her favorably to 41% with an unfavorable opinion. She's polarizing- 74% of Democrats like her but 76% of Republicans don't. Tipping the scales in her favor overall is a 48/37 spread with independents.

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).