Raleigh, N.C. – Although the political climate has worsened overall for Democrats since September, little has changed in the New Hampshire Senate race. In a November election, voters prefer Jeanne Shaheen over Scott Brown by 3 points (46/43), numbers that are little changed from a 4 point Shaheen lead before the Obamacare rollout.
Shaheen holds double-digit leads in matchups against all other possible Republican challengers (48/34 over Bob Smith, 49/33 over Jim Rubens, and 47/30 over Karen Testerman). However, voters still see Brown unfavorably, with only 34% viewing him favorably and 40% unfavorably. For Shaheen, voters narrowly approve of the job she’s doing (44/43). President Obama’s recent low job approval ratings extend to New Hampshire as well, where 41% approve of the job he’s doing to 53% who disapprove.
Among Republicans, Scott Brown leads the primary field, with 42% of likely Republican primary voters in support. The next-highest candidates, Andy Martin and Bob Smith, got only 11% each. The numbers also show possibilities of trouble ahead for Brown if he does get into the race though. A plurality of GOP voters say they’d be less likely to vote for a candidate who supported an assault weapons ban, and voters also react negatively to someone who is pro-choice on the issue of abortion.