Public Policy Polling

Hassan riding high in New Hampshire, safe for 2014 re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Maggie Hassan’s high job approval rating and significant double-digit leads over five possible Republican challengers indicate that the incumbent Democratic governor will start out ahead for  re-election in 2014 if she decides to run, according to PPP’s first New Hampshire poll since the 2012 election.

Hassan has a +19 job approval rating with 50% of voters approving and 31% disapproving of her performance. Democrats (80/8) and independents (47/29) approve of Hassan, who also nabs 18% support from Republicans. She has 14 to 20 point leads over five possible GOP opponents. She leads Jeb Bradley 52/38, Chris Sununu 53/37, Ted Gastas 51/35, Frank Guinta 54/36 and Kevin Smith 52/32. None of these potential candidates have a positive favorability rating with New Hampshire voters.

Ayotte faces backlash over gun vote

Gun show background checks are pretty universally popular in New Hampshire...and Kelly Ayotte is facing some serious backlash from voters in the state for voting against them last week.

Ayotte now has a negative approval rating with 44% of voters giving her good marks and 46% disapproving. That's down a net 15 points from the last time we polled on her, in October, when she had a 48% approval with 35% disapproving. 75% of New Hampshire voters- including 95% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 56% of Republicans- say they support background checks. And 50% of voters in the state say Ayotte's 'no' vote will make them less likely to support her in a future election, compared to just 23% who consider it to be a positive.

Ayotte won her seat in 2010 by 23 points. But in a very early hypothetical match up between her and new Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan, she trails by a 46/44 margin. This issue is really giving her some trouble.

Speaking of Hassan, she's off to a good start in her first term as Governor. 50% of voters approve of her to only 31% who disapprove, including a 47/29 spread with independents. She holds leads ranging from 14 to 20 points over five potential Republican foes for reelection that we tested against her.

Former Congressman Jeb Bradley does the best but still trails by 14 points at 52/38. He is followed by Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas and Sununu family member Chris Sununu who trail by 16 points each at 51/35 and 53/37 respectively, former Congressman Frank Guinta who trails by 18 at 54/36, and 2012 primary runner up Kevin Smith who has a 20 point deficit at 52/32. Hassan holds a double digit lead among independents and pulls double digit support from Republican voters in each match up.

A few other notes from New Hampshire:

Romney leads by 1 in Iowa and New Hampshire

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 49-48 in both states. That represents a big decline for Obama compared to last month. Obama had previously led 51-44 in Iowa and 51-43.5 in New Hampshire on polls conducted the final week of September. Voters in both Iowa (45/36) and New Hampshire (46/38) do think that Obama won the debate on Tuesday night. But unlike Romney's win in the first debate this one doesn't seem to be moving the needle too much.

Mitt Romney's seen a big improvement in his image in both states. In Iowa his net favorability has improved 16 points from a -15 spread at 40/55 on our last poll to now 48/47. He's seen a 10 point ascent on that front in New Hampshire from -5 at 45/50 when we last looked at his favorability in August to now 51/46. Obama's approval numbers have declined. He was at 49/48 the last time we polled each of these states, but now he's dropped to 46/50 in Iowa and 47/51 in New Hampshire.

Romney leads by 1 point in Iowa and New Hampshire

PPP's newest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 49-48 in both states. That represents a big decline for Obama compared to last month. Obama had previously led 51-44 in Iowa and 51-43.5 in New Hampshire on polls conducted the final week of September.

Mitt Romney's seen a big improvement in his image in both states. In Iowa his net favorability has improved 16 points from a -15 spread at 40/55 on our last poll to now 48/47. He's seen a 10 point ascent on that front in New Hampshire from -5 at 45/50 when we last looked at his favorability in August to now 51/46. Obama's approval numbers have declined. He was at 49/48 the last time we polled each of these states, but now he's dropped to 46/50 in Iowa and 47/51 in New Hampshire.

Romney has a big advantage on the economy in both of these states that seems to be driving his lead. In New Hampshire voters prefer Romney 52/45 on that front and in Iowa it's 49/45. Voters are closely divided between the two candidates on the issue of Libya, favoring Romney 47/46 in New Hampshire and 46/44 in Iowa. Obama does have a wide lead on women's issues in both states, 56/39 in New Hampshire and 49/44 in Iowa.

Obama's decline in these states  is particularly large compared to his national drop over the last month, but it's a reflection of the demographics in them. Obama has fallen much further with white voters than African Americans or Hispanics and in states like Iowa and New Hampshire where almost the entire population is white it stands to reason that he would have a bigger decline.

Voters in both Iowa (45/36) and New Hampshire (46/38) do think that Obama won the debate on Tuesday night. But unlike Romney's win in the first debate this one doesn't seem to be moving the needle too much.

State specific notes from Iowa:

Tight gubernatorial race in New Hampshire

Raleigh, N.C. – With John Lynch’s retirement, the gubernatorial race in the Granite State is wide open.  All four variations of the fall contest are essentially ties.  Maggie Hassan tops likely GOP nominee Ovide Lamontagne, 45-43, and challenger Kevin Smith, 42-39.  Jackie Cilley ties Lamontagne at 42%, and leads Smith, 39-38.  12% to 23% of voters are undecided in these match-ups—still a lot, but down from 21-32% when PPP last polled the race in May.

There is some question who will emerge from the somewhat sleepy Democratic primary as well, but Lamontagne has a more than 2:1 edge for the GOP nod.  He leads Smith by a 49-21 margin.  That is down from a 53-13 advantage in May, but it should be enough to survive the next month.  On the other side of the aisle, Hassan is retaining a slim lead over Cilley, 30-24, but a huge 46% are undecided, so anything could happen in the closing weeks.   In the last poll, Hassan was up 23-20, with 57% not sure.

Up for grabs in New Hampshire

PPP's newest poll of New Hampshire's Governor's race finds a complete toss up regardless of who the Democratic and Republican nominees end up being. The candidates are within 3 points of each other in every possible match up.

Democrat Maggie Hassan holds modest leads over both of the potential Republican candidates- she's up 45-43 on Ovide Lamontagne and 42-39 on Kevin Smith. The other Democratic candidate, Jackie Cilley, ties Lamontagne at 42% and leads Smith 39-38. The relatively high level of undecideds in all these match ups reflects the anonymity of the candidates. Only Lamontagne is particularly well known, with 69% of voters having an opinion about him. Hassan comes in at 51%, Smith at 47%, and Cilley at 42%.

The Democrats are ahead mostly because they have the advantage with independents in all four match ups. Hassan leads by 6-7 points with them and Cilley has a 3 point lead against each Republican with them. That's making the difference overall, as none of the candidates have much crossover support- Democrats are voting Democratic and Republicans are voting Republican.