Public Policy Polling

Foxx, Berry lead Republican wish list for NC Senate race

Raleigh, N.C.-PPP’s monthly North Carolina Senate poll finds Kay Hagan leading or tying all potential challengers. For the first time, Cherie Berry ties Hagan at 45%. Hagan leads Phil Berger 46%-42%. The Senator comes in ahead of Greg Brannon 49%-40% and Jim Cain 48%-41%. Hagan bests Virginia Foxx 49%-42%. She leads Mark Harris 46%-40%. Hagan beats out Lynn Wheeler by a 48%-37% margin. The very-likely candidates Thom Tillis and Renee Ellmers each trail Hagan, at 48%-41% and 48%-39%, respectively.

Virginia Foxx holds a slight lead in the contest for the Republican nomination. 15% of Republican primary voters support her, to Cherie Berry’s 14%. Renee Ellmers also makes it into double digits, at 10%. The Ron Paul-style libertarian Brannon garners the support of 7% of Republicans. Jim Cain gets 4% of the vote, and Lynn Wheeler wins 3%. Thom Tillis’s self-promotion continues not to yield results. With 6% of the vote, the state House Speaker finishes third-worst.

Foxx back at the top for NC Republicans

PPP's monthly look at next year's race for the US Senate in North Carolina finds Virginia Foxx back at the top of the Republican wish list for their candidate. 15% say she's their pick to 14% for Cherie Berry, 10% each for Phil Berger and Renee Ellmers, 7% for Greg Brannon, 6% for Thom Tillis, 4% for Jim Cain, and 3% each for Mark Harris and Lynn Wheeler.

Foxx also has the highest net favorability of the potential GOP contenders with Republican primary voters at +15 (34/19). Others with positive numbers are Berry at +10 (31/21), Ellmers at +8 (23/15), and Tillis at +3 (21/18). Foxx leads the GOP field based on her strength with conservatives and voters in the Triad, while Berry does well with moderates and young Republicans.

For the first time in our polling of the 2014 Senate race Kay Hagan doesn't lead all of her challengers. Berry pulls even with her at 45%, owing in large part to a 56/36 advantage with independents.  She has a +9 net favorability rating at 29/20 and pulls off the unusual feat of being viewed positively by Republicans (33/22), Democrats (29/19), and independents (25/21) alike.

Hagan does, however, still have leads ranging from 4 to 11 points against the rest of the potential GOP field of candidates. She's up 4 on Phil Berger at 46/42, 6 on Mark Harris at 46/40, 7 on Jim Cain, Thom Tillis, and Virginia Foxx at 48/41, 48/41, and 49/42 respectively, 9 on Renee Ellmers at 48/39, and 11 on Lynn Wheeler at 48/37. Hagan's approval this month comes in at 46/40 and she continues to look like a favorite for reelection overall.

Other notes from North Carolina:

Hagan, Landrieu gun votes could help in 2014

PPP's newest round of polling finds that Kay Hagan and Mary Landrieu helped their cause for reelection with their recent votes in support of background checks for gun sales. More than 70% of voters in each of their states support such checks, and their constituents say they're more likely to vote for them next year because of their votes.

In Louisiana 72% of voters say they favor background checks to only 20% who are opposed. There is strong bipartisan backing with Democrats (81/13), independents (73/20), and Republicans (61/29) all expressing at least 2:1 support. 45% of voters in the state say they're now more likely to support Landrieu for reelection because she voted for background checks, compared to only 25% who say they're now less likely to vote for her. Landrieu has also seen a 6 point improvement in her net approval rating from the last time we polled the state in February, from +2 then at 47/45 to now +8 at 49/41.

It's a similar story in North Carolina. There 73% of voters support background checks with only 22% opposed. Again there is a strong consensus across party lines with more than 60% of Democrats (86/11), independents (67/28), and Republicans (61/34) all supporting them.  52% of voters say they're more inclined to reelect Hagan next year because she voted for background checks, while only 26% of voters say they will be less likely to support her because of it.

Cherie Berry leads GOP primary, strongest against Hagan for 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – North Carolina Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry is back as the favorite among Republican primary voters and the strongest potential challenger against Democratic Senator Kay Hagan in 2014, according to PPP’s latest North Carolina poll.

Hagan continues to lead all seven potential Republican challengers in hypothetical match-ups by 5 to 13 points. She leads Berry 46/41, Renee Ellmers 48/40, Phil Berger 48/39, Virginia Foxx 48/39, Thom Tillis 49/39, Terry Embler 47/37 and Greg Brannon 49/36. Berry is the only Republican with a net positive favorability rating with general election voters—32% hold a favorable opinion of her against 18% unfavorable. None of the GOP challengers have statewide name recognition above 50%.

North Carolina voters narrowly approve of Hagan’s job performance, 39% to 37%, but 24% are not sure. Independent voters are evenly divided with 38% approving and 37% disapproving. Moderates approve of her by a substantial margin, 52% to 24%. Republican Senator Richard Burr is slightly less popular, with 36% of voters approving and 38% disapproving of his job performance.

Hagan leads all Republicans, Berry leads GOP hopefuls

PPP's first poll of the North Carolina Senate race since Kay Hagan announced her support of gay marriage finds her approval numbers largely unaffected. 39% of voters approve of the job she's doing to 37% who disapprove, almost identical to a 42/39 spread a month ago

Our new poll finds Hagan isn't putting herself much at risk with North Carolina voters by supporting gun control laws either. 54% of voters in the state generally support Congress passing stricter gun laws to only 38% who are opposed, and they're supportive of an assault weapons ban in particular 52/40. Additionally Project New America released polling today showing 79% support for expanding background checks.

Hagan continues to lead all of her potential Republican opponents for next year by margins ranging from 5-13 points. The strongest GOP candidate this month- both for the general election and among Republican primary voters- is Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry. 18% say they'd like her to be their candidate next year compared to 13% for Virginia Foxx, 12% for Renee Ellmers, 11% for Phil Berger, 7% for Thom Tillis, 6% for Greg Brannon, and 1% for Terry Embler. Berry is particularly strong with moderate Republicans and younger ones- among those under 45 she gets 38% support with no one else even in double digits.

Berry is the only one of the potential Republican candidates who has a positive favorability rating with the general electorate- 32% of voters see her favorably to just 18% with a negative opinion. She is well liked across party lines with Republicans (37/18), Democrats (33/18), and independents (25/19) all expressing a positive opinion of her. She comes the closest to Hagan in a head to head match up, trailing by just 5 points at 46/41.

After Berry the Republican who comes closest to Hagan is Ellmers, who trails by 8 points at 48/40. Then it's Berger and Foxx who each trail by 9 points at 48/39, Tillis and Embler who each trail by 10 points at 49/39 and 47/37 respectively, and Brannon who does the worst with a 13 point deficit at 49/36.

Forest new GOP frontrunner vs. rejuvenated Hagan

Raleigh, N.C. – Another month, another “frontrunner.”  Throwing new Lt. Gov. Dan Forest into the mix for the first time, PPP finds that he is Republicans’ preference for Kay Hagan’s opponent next year.  Last month, it was longtime Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry, and before that, U.S. Rep. Virginia Foxx.  But one thing remains clear: Hagan has large early leads over her mostly unknown potential challengers.  And she now looks stronger than before, moving from 45-49% of the vote in last month’s poll to 49-52% now.

Forest has 18% of usual GOP primary voters’ support, over 13% for Foxx, 12% for Berry, 10% for U.S. Rep. Renee Ellmers, 8% for Senate Pro Tem Phil Berger, 7% for U.S. Rep. Patrick McHenry, 4% for Greg Brannon, 2% for Speaker Thom Tillis, and 1% for Terry Embler.  The real leader is the 24% who are not yet sure or favor someone else. 

In February, Berry led with 18% over Foxx’s 16%, and the month before that, Foxx was up with 21% over McHenry’s 15%.  Introducing the somewhat well-known Berry and then Forest has eaten into support for the lesser-known far-right candidates, but Ellmers has remained at 10-11% in all three polls.

Forest leads GOP field

PPP's monthly look at the North Carolina Senate race once again finds a new leader on the Republican side. Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest, tested for the first time, leads the way among GOP voters at 18%, followed by Virginia Foxx at 13%, Cherie Berry at 12%, Renee Ellmers at 10%, Phil Berger at 8%, Patrick McHenry at 7%, Greg Brannon at 4%, Thom Tillis at 2%, and Terry Embler at 1%.

Forest, along with Berry, is one of only two of the potential Republican candidates we tested who has over 50% name recognition. 36% of GOP primary voters view him favorably to 18% who have an unfavorable opinion. Forest finds particularly strong support with conservative voters.

One thing that continues to be particularly noteworthy is Tillis' poor showing. Even though he's basically been running for the Senate seat for 2 years he still places 8th in a 9 person field. It will be interesting to see if the new tv ad campaign on his behalf does anything to improve these numbers for next month's poll.

Kay Hagan continues to have a clear lead over all these potential Republican candidates for the general election. Forest and McHenry come the closest but still trail by 10 points at 50/40 and 49/39 respectively. Berry and Foxx do next best but each face a 12 point deficit at 50/38 and 49/37. After them it's Ellmers who trails by 13 at 49/36, Berger and Tillis who trail by 14 at 51/37 and 50/36 respectively, Brannon who trails by 15 at 51/36, and Embler who trails by 19 at 52/33.

Hagan out in front of possible 2014 Republican opponents

Raleigh, N.C. – Kay Hagan leads nine possible Republican Senate candidates for the 2014 race by five to 15 points, according to PPP’s latest North Carolina poll.

Every hypothetical GOP challenger trails Hagan. She leads Patrick McHenry 45/40, Cherie Berry 46/38, Thom Tillis 46/38, Renee Ellmers 47/38, Virginia Foxx 48/38, George Holding 46/36, Phil Berger 49/38, Greg Brannon 48/35 and Terry Embler 48/33.

39% of voters approve of Hagan’s job performance while 38% disapprove and 23% are not sure. 46% of moderates approve of Hagan’s performance to 26% who disapprove. The big shift for Hagan since January is that she is consolidating Democratic support but disapproval from independent voters has increased. 64% of Democrats now approve of Hagan’s job performance compared to only 49% in January. But independents are split 28% approving to 48% disapproving compared to 31% to 34% a month ago.

Berry leads Republican field

PPP added Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry into the mix on the Republican side for its monthly North Carolina Senate poll, and she leads the GOP field. Berry gets 18% to 16% for previous leader Virginia Foxx, 10% each for Renee Ellmers and Patrick McHenry, 7% for Phil Berger, 5% for Greg Brannon, 3% each for George Holding and Thom Tillis, and 1% for Terry Embler.

Berry is the only one of the potential Republican candidates with name recognition over 50%. 32% of primary voters have a positive opinion of her to 19% with a negative one. She's particularly strong with moderate Republicans, leading Foxx 25-10 with them, and she also does well with young voters, holding a 26/16 edge over Foxx with them.

When it comes to the general election Kay Hagan continues to lead all of her potential opponents for reelection by anywhere from 5 to 15 points. Patrick McHenry comes the closest at 45/40. Other Republicans within single digits are Cherie Berry and Thom Tillis who each trail by 8 points at 46/38 and Renee Ellmers who's down by 9 at 47/38. The rest are down by double digits- Virginia Foxx and George Holding are down 10 at 48/38 and 46/36 respectively, Phil Berger's down 11 at 49/38, Greg Brannon's down 13 at 48/35, and Terry Embler has a 15 point deficit at 48/33.

Hagan leads potential 2014 GOP Senate challengers

Raleigh, N.C. – Kay Hagan leads seven different potential Republican challengers for her U.S. Senate seat, according to PPP’s latest North Carolina poll.

Hagan has a 34% job approval rating with 36% disapproving of her and 31% not sure. Only 49% of Democrats approve of Hagan’s job performance and 35% of Democrats aren’t sure, indicating that Hagan needs to consolidate her party’s base of support between now and 2014.

Similar to PPP’s December poll, Hagan has at least a 6 point advantage (but no larger than 10 points) over seven potential Republican challengers: 47/38 over Phil Berger, 46/40 over Renee Ellmers, 47/40 over Virginia Foxx, 45/37 over George Holding, 45/39 over Patrick McHenry, 46/38 over Robert Pittenger and 47/37 over Thom Tillis.