Public Policy Polling

Obama dominates in Connecticut

Raleigh, N.C. – Connecticut voters are certain of who they want to see win the Presidential election on November 6.  With 40 days until election day, President Barack Obama leads in the state by 13 points at 54%, with Mitt Romney only taking 41% of the vote.  This comes with President Obama’s approval rating at 52%, while Romney’s favorability hardly compares at 41%.

When polled, Connecticut residents back Obama on all issues.  51% of residents trust Obama on issues with the economy, while only 43% trust Romney.  When it comes to foreign policy, 54% trust President Obama’s decisions, while Romney compares with only 40%.

Obama up 13 in Connecticut

Barack Obama doesn't need to worry about losing Connecticut this fall, but it definitely continues to be one of the states where he's fallen the furthest. Our new poll there finds him leading Mitt Romney 54-41. That's up from him having only an 8 point advantage when we polled the state in July, but it's down a good deal from his 23 point margin of victory there in 2008.

Obama's actually losing independents 50-43 to Romney. But there are far more Democrats in the state than Republicans, and Obama's winning 20% of the Republican vote on top of that, more than we've found for him in just about any state.

Obama's approval rating in Connecticut is over 50%, at 52/44. Meanwhile voters there aren't particularly warm to Romney with 41% rating him favorably while 53% hold a negative opinion. Obama has the edge over Romney both on who voters trust more about the economy (51-43) and foreign policy (54-40). Obama won't match the size of his victory last time in the state but he's still pretty safe.

Malloy sinks, Lieberman rises in Connecticut

Raleigh, N.C.-- Much has happened in the 10 months since PPP last surveyed the Nutmeg state, but nothing that has drastically altered Connecticut voters’ perception of their major politicians. Governor Dan Malloy’s already ugly approval rating got a little uglier, sinking from -16 to -18, while freshman Senator Richard Blumenthal’s rating has also taken a hit, dropping to +13 at 49% approving and 36% disapproving, from +18 in September.

Governor Malloy’s numbers have actually improved somewhat with Democrats, who now approve of his performance by +19, compared to +12. However, his support among independents has withered significantly from an already underwhelming -19 net approval to -28. Malloy’s reelection numbers have recovered some, from -11 when pitted against 2010 opponent Tom Foley to -7 now against an unnamed Republican. This movement can be entirely explained by an increase in undecideds due to the nameless challenger, however, and Malloy is clearly still in trouble.

Connecticut Miscellany

-Dan Malloy continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country in our polling. Only 33% of voters approve of him to 51% who disapprove. Out of more than 40 sitting Governors we've polled on across the country the only ones with worse numbers in our most recent polls are Bev Perdue of North Carolina, Neil Abercrombie of Hawaii, Pat Quinn of Illinois, and Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania.

Malloy only barely gets over 50% approval even with Democrats, at 52/33. Independents disapprove of him by a more than 2:1 margin, 25/53, and with Republicans he's at 15/73. Malloy would trail a hypothetical GOP opponent for reelection right now by a 46/39 margin. Certainly he has plenty of time to turn it around before November 2014 but for now he's not in a great position.

-Richard Blumenthal continues to be Connecticut's most popular major politician. 49% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 36% who disapprove, numbers pretty comparable to where he was when we last polled the state in September and found him at 52/34.

Joe Lieberman's approval numbers have seen a fair amount of improvement as he heads for the door. 41% of voters give him good marks to 43% who disapprove. Those still aren't good numbers but they compare quite favorably to the first poll we did after his retirement announcement, in March of 2011, when we found only 29% of voters approving of him to 58% who disapproved.

Lieberman continues to be very unpopular with Democrats. Only 26% approve of him, while 55% give him poor marks. But his numbers have seen significant recovery with Republicans (56/26) and independents (46/41).

Malloy popularity plummets, Lieberman up with GOP

Raleigh, N.C. – Gov. Dan Malloy’s already negative job approval spread has only doubled since PPP last polled Connecticut six months ago.  Then, shortly into his term, 39% approved and 47% disapproved.  That has fallen to 36-52, making Malloy the third least popular governor on which PPP has polled this year, bested only by controversial Republicans John Kasich of Ohio and Rick Scott of Florida.  He has actually gotten slightly more popular with independents, from 29-53 to 36-55.  But his own Democrats have really soured on him, moving from an already weak 57-29 to only 49-37, accounting for essentially his entire decline.  Republicans disapprove by an almost identical spread as in the previous poll, 16-72.

Malloy unpopular

-Over the course of 2011 we've found that voters in a lot of states wish they could do their Gubernatorial elections from last year over again and pick someone else.  Connecticut is no exception but it does represent a twist- it's the first state where we've found serious buyer's remorse about a Democratic Governor.  52% of Connecticut voters say that if they could do it all over they'd vote for Republican Tom Foley, compared to only 41% who would stick with incumbent Dan Malloy.

That desire to elect someone else is a product of Malloy's continuing unpopularity.  Only 36% of voters approve of him to 52% disapproving.  That makes him the most unpopular Democratic Governor in the country that PPP has polled on this year. His numbers with independents are bad at a 36/55 approval spread but the biggest problem for him is the party base- even with Democrats just 49% think he's doing a good job to 37% who disapprove.  It's rare to find a major politician under 50% approval within their own party. Last year we found 20% of Democrats planning to vote for Foley the week before the election- now 28% do.  Malloy has plenty of time to get back on the right track but for now his position is pretty bad.

Senate Approval Ratings

During the second half of 2010 PPP polled on approval ratings for 59 different Senators. Here's some of the information on how they stack up:

-The average approval rating for a Senator right now is 43% approving to 40% disapproving. That suggests the old adage that voters hate Congress but love their Congressman holds true...to an extent...maybe hate Congress but don't mind their Congressman is a better way of putting it. At any rate 37 Senators had positive approval numbers in our most recent polls while 22 had negative ones.

-There's very little difference in the average approval of Republican Senators vs. Democratic Senators. Your average GOP Senator has a 43/37 approval spread. Your average Democrats comes down at 44% approval and 41% disapproval.

-Seven Senators posted a net approval rating of +20 or greater during the second half of 2010. The most popular is Amy Klobuchar at +30, followed by Scott Brown at +24, Judd Gregg at +23, and then Barbara Mikulski, Mark Warner, Chuck Schumer, and Olympia Snowe all at +22.

-There are only three Senators who posted a net approval rating of -20 or worse during the second half of 2010. They are Roland Burris at -39, Arlen Specter at -31, and Joe Lieberman at -21. Specter and Lieberman's numbers definitely speak to the perils of having it both ways...they don't really make Democrats or Republicans particularly happy and you can get away with that if independents love you for your independence but in their cases that has not happened. I will be interested to see if Lieberman's numbers are back in the right direction after the last month and I imagine we'll poll there sometime in January.

-The two most popular Senate delegations are Maine where Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins add up to a +39 approval spread and Maryland where Barbara Mikulski and Ben Cardin combine for a +36 approval spread. The two least popular are Connecticut where Lieberman and Chris Dodd are both pretty unpopular and add up to -37 and Illinois where Dick Durbin actually is on positive ground but Burris is so unpopular that together they add up to -37.

Here are the full numbers, there are probably a lot of other interesting points that I'm missing. And a methodological note, I'm using our most recent poll here except for states that we polled repeatedly in October- for those ones I'm using the poll that proved to come closest to the election outcome in the state:

Senator	Approval	Spread
Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)	59/29	+30
Scott Brown (R-MA)	53/29	+24
Judd Gregg (R-NH)	52/29	+23
Olympia Snowe (R-ME)	56/34	+22
Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)	54/32	+22
Mark Warner (D-VA)	54/32	+22
Chuck Schumer (D-NY)	57/35	+22
Susan Collins (R-ME)	53/36	+17
Jeff Bingaman (D-NM)	50/34	+16
John Cornyn (R-TX)	46/31	+15
Herb Kohl (D-WI)	50/35	+15
Ben Cardin (D-MD)	42/28	+14
Daniel Akaka (D-HI)	49/35	+14
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)	50/37	+13
David Vitter (R-LA)	53/41	+12
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)	45/33	+12
Tom Udall (D-NM)	48/36	+12
Jon Tester (D-MT)	50/40	+10
Kit Bond (R-MO)	45/36	+9
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)	49/40	+9
Tom Carper (D-DE)	45/36	+9
Jon Kyl (R-AZ)	47/39	+8
Russ Feingold (D-WI)	50/43	+7
Carl Levin (D-MI)	47/40	+7
John Kerry (D-MA)	50/43	+7
Jim Webb (D-VA)	43/37	+6
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)	42/37	+5
Ted Kaufman (D-DE)	38/33	+5
Sherrod Brown (D-OH)	40/37	+3
Bill Nelson (D-FL)	36/33	+3
Al Franken (D-MN)	45/42	+3
Maria Cantwell (D-WA)	44/41	+3
Mark Udall (D-CO)	38/35	+3
Richard Burr (R-NC)	36/34	+2
Jeff Merkley (D-OR)	35/33	+2
Dick Durbin (D-IL)	47/45	+2
Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)	41/40	+1
Patty Murray (D-WA)	47/48	-1
Claire McCaskill (D-MO)	43/44	-1
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)	42/44	-2
Barbara Boxer (D-CA)	44/46	-2
Bob Casey (D-PA)	36/40	-4
George Voinovich (R-OH)	36/40	-4
Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)	41/46	-5
Carte Goodwin (D-WV)	17/22	-5
Kay Hagan (D-NC)	36/43	-7
John Ensign (R-NV)	41/48	-7
Harry Reid (D-NV)	44/52	-8
Michael Bennet (D-CO)	39/47	-8
Mark Begich (D-AK)	39/47	-8
George LeMieux (R-FL)	16/27	-11
Mary Landrieu (D-LA)	41/53	-12
Jim Bunning (R-KY)	32/45	-13
Max Baucus (D-MT)	38/53	-15
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)	37/53	-16
Chris Dodd (D-CT)	36/52	-16
Joe Lieberman (I-CT)	33/54	-21
Arlen Specter (D-PA)	29/60	-31
Roland Burris (D-IL)	19/58	-39

 

The 2012 Senate Class

There were a ton of competitive Senate races in 2010 and the playing field could be even wider in 2012. Since the beginning of August PPP has polled on the approval ratings of 18 Senators who are up for reelection next time around. 9 of the 18 have an approval spread somewhere that's between +10 and -10, indicating the kind of ambiguous feelings toward an incumbent that can lead to a competitive race.

The three least popular and conceivably most vulnerable Senators up next time that we've polled on are Joe Lieberman, Claire McCaskill, and Debbie Stabenow. Lieberman has now reached the point where neither Democrats nor Republicans are particularly inclined to reelect him. He was able to win reelection in a three way race in 2006 by becoming the de facto Republican candidate- if he can't achieve that status again this time his career may be over. Missouri was extremely brutal for Democrats this year and McCaskill has not built up a lot in the way of crossover support from Republicans and independents during her first term in the Senate. Stabenow's approval numbers with this year's electorate are partially a reflection of the fact that the enthusiasm gap in Michigan was particularly large- but still indicative of trouble ahead if she draws a strong opponent.

In an unusual twist the most popular Senator on the list might be in trouble as well. Olympia Snowe has the strongest overall approval numbers but we've found in several polls a desire from the Republican base in Maine for a more conservative alternative to her. Her numbers with GOP voters are a lot weaker than Mike Castle's or Lisa Murkowski's were six months out from their primary defeats. Others near the top of the list are Amy Klobuchar and Jeff Bingaman.

Here's the full rundown. Obviously we'll be going far beyond approval numbers on these folks in the coming months to sort out who's in trouble and who's not:

Senator	Approval	Spread
Olympia Snowe	56/34	+22
Amy Klobuchar	53/32	+21
Jeff Bingaman	50/34	+16
Daniel Akaka	49/35	+14
Dianne Feinstein	50/37	+13
Kay Bailey Hutchison	45/33	+12
Tom Carper	45/36	+9
Jon Kyl	47/39	+8
Kirsten Gillibrand	42/37	+5
Maria Cantwell	44/41	+3
Bill Nelson	37/35	+2
Herb Kohl	41/40	+1
Bob Casey	36/40	-4
John Ensign	41/48	-7
Sherrod Brown	31/40	-9
Debbie Stabenow	38/50	-12
Claire McCaskill	40/53	-13
Joe Lieberman	33/54	-21

Lieberman in Serious Trouble for 2012

Raleigh, N.C. – Joe Lieberman managed to leave his old party in 2006 after losing the Democratic primary to liberal insurgent Ned Lamont and still comfortably win re-election as an independent in a three-way contest.  But after endorsing John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008, Connecticut voters may finally have had enough.  Two-thirds of those likely to cast their ballots this fall are looking forward to voting Lieberman out of office in the next election—including 70% of Democrats, 61% of Republicans, and 63% of independents—while only a quarter are committed to re-electing him.  When stacked against 5^th District Congressman Chris Murphy as the Democratic candidate and two different Republicans, Lieberman fails to get more than 20% of the vote in a three-way or a third against just Murphy.

Connecticut down on Lieberman

There's one thing Democrats, Republicans, and independents in Connecticut agree on: they want this to be Joe Lieberman's last term in the US Senate. Only 24% of voters in the state say they would vote to reelect Lieberman in 2012 to 66% who say they will vote to replace him. Majorities of Democrats (72%), independents (63%), and Republicans (61%) alike say it's time to swap out Lieberman for someone new.

Lieberman is one of the most unpopular Senators in the country, with only a 31% approval rating and 57% of voters disapproving of his job performance. He's on slightly favorable ground with Republicans at a 46/41 approval rating. But he's lost virtually any remaining support he had with Democrats at a 20/69 approval and independents are against him as well, by a 31/56 spread.

Lieberman doesn't just lose to hypothetical opponents. In a three way with Chris Murphy as the Democrat and Peter Schiff as the Republican he gets only 19% to 39% for Murphy and 25% for Schiff. If you substitute in Jodi Rell for Schiff as the Republican Lieberman's support drops even further to 17% with Murphy still leading at 37% and Rell at 29%. And in a direct head to head with Murphy Lieberman trails by a 47-33 margin.

Lieberman finishes in last place with independents in both possible three way contests. That's quite a contrast from 2006 when exit polls showed Lieberman winning a clear majority with them. Taking 70% of the Republican vote was also a key component of Lieberman's victory then but it looks like GOP voters would rather support one of their own candidates in 2012 than allow Lieberman to be their de facto party nominee. And while Lieberman still had enough favor with Democrats in 2006 to get a third of their votes that support's been cut in half to the point where he gets only 14-17% his former party's vote in these match ups.

One interesting thing to note in these numbers is Rell's perhaps surprisingly tepid numbers as a potential US Senate candidate, given that she's one of the most popular Governors in the country. That's a reflection in reverse of the same thing giving Joe Manchin problems in the West Virginia Senate campaign- a Democratic state electing a Republican as Governor is one thing, a Democratic state electing a Republican to the Senate is quite another.

It also seems quite possible Rell would be a victim of the Tea Party movement if she did decide to pursue a Senate bid. Her 64/26 approval rating with Republicans compares unfavorably to the 69/24 spread Mike Castle had within his party the first time we polled him this election cycle, back in March of 2009.

A lot can change in two years. But for now Lieberman's path to reelection looks extremely dicey.

Full results here