Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.
Romney's particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he's even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn't tended to do that well with is why he's looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.
In addition to asking about the Presidential race in Alabama and Mississippi we also touched on some other issues in those states:
-There's considerable skepticism about Barack Obama's religion with Republican voters in them. In Mississippi only 12% of voters think Obama's a Christian to 52% who think he's a Muslim and 36% who are not sure. In Alabama just 14% think Obama's a Christian to 45% who think he's a Muslim and 41% who aren't sure.
Mitt Romney dominates the 'Obama's a Christian' vote in both states. He leads Santorum 42-28 with those folks in Mississippi and has a 38-21 lead over him with them in Alabama. In Mississippi Newt's winning the 'Obama's a Muslim' vote 39-28, but in Alabama it's a three way tie with all of the leading candidates at 31%.
-We continue to see evidence that Rush Limbaugh's damaged his brand over the last few weeks. His favorability is only slightly over 50% in these two states where the Republican electorate is incredibly conservative- he's at 53/33 in Alabama and 51/30 in Mississippi. Given that our last national survey on Limbaugh, taken a few years ago, found him at 80/12 with Republicans it's safe to say he's fallen a long way in these states.
Raleigh, N.C. – Tuesday looks like it's going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.
Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich's net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It's a similar story in Alabama where Santorum's at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney's at only +13 (53/40).
Raleigh, N.C. – One symptom of the losing ways of the Houston Nutt years at Ole Miss is that the Rebels have fallen to being only the third most popular college sports team in the state: 36% of voters say that Mississippi State is their favorite school to 27% for Southern Mississippi and only 21% for Mississippi. That decline in fan support in and of itself might prove that a change was badly needed.
-Ole Miss may get its mascot back though- 52% of voters say they would support a constitutional amendment to designate Colonel Reb as the school's official mascot to only 22% who say they would oppose such a move at this time. White voters with an opinion on the matter pretty universally support it, 62/14, and although black voters oppose it 19-46 that opposition is not as unanimous as the support from whites at this point.
-One symptom of the losing ways of the Houston Nutt years at Ole Miss is that the Rebels have fallen to being only the third most popular college sports team in the state: 36% of voters say that Mississippi State is their favorite school to 27% for Southern Mississippi and only 21% for Mississippi. That decline in fan support in and of itself might prove that a change was badly needed.
-Ole Miss may get its mascot back though- 52% of voters say they would support a constitutional amendment to designate Colonel Reb as the school's official mascot to only 22% who say they would oppose such a move at this time. White voters with an opinion on the matter pretty universally support it, 62/14, and although black voters oppose it 19-46 that opposition is not as unanimous as the support from whites at this point.
Raleigh, N.C. – As they have become more familiar with her, South Carolina voters’ views of their new Governor Nikki Haley have slid tremendously in the last four months, but if she were to stand for election against her 2010 opponent Vincent Sheheen today, she would yet win by a slightly larger margin than she actually did last fall. 42% approve and 41% disapprove of Haley’s job performance, an 11-point decline on the margin from the 36-24 she posted when PPP last polled the state just after her inauguration.
Raleigh, N.C. – A lot has been made recently about southern attitudes toward race and the old Confederacy 150 years after the start of the Civil War, fueled in part by PPP’s recent poll which showed that more Mississippi Republican primary voters think interracial marriage should be illegal than legal. But for the most part, residents of three southern states—Mississippi, North Carolina, and Georgia—prove that American culture and politics are becoming less and less regional in the digital age. This is especially true in the latter two states, which have experienced a large influx of immigrants from the North and Midwest in the last 20 to 30 years.
Raleigh, N.C. – Mississippi Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant is certainly the favorite to get his party’s nomination to succeed Haley Barbour at the helm of the state. As last week’s PPP release showed, Bryant would also be a shoo-in come November. Bryant has almost two-thirds (63%) of Republican primary voters’ support, with only one other candidate, businessman Dave Dennis, in double digits (14%). Retired General Hudson Holliday gets a mere 2%, with perennial candidate James Broadwater at only 1% and businessman Ron Williams with almost no support. 20% are undecided, but unless a seismic shift occurs, that will not impact Bryant’s chances in the primary only four months away.
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