Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Of 17 states polled, US voters most divided on TX, least on PA

Raleigh, N.C. – In its latest national poll, in the first of a three-part series, PPP asked American voters how they feel about 17 different states.  Of this first bunch, Texas is the most polarizing—it has both the highest favorability and highest unfavorability rating.  Pennsylvania matches Texas in favor and has much less disfavor, making it the most popular.  The least liked are Illinois and Mississippi, two of only three (along with Utah) which more voters see negatively than positively.

Polling the States

Over the next 3 months PPP will be polling the favorability of all 50 states as part of its national surveys, in order to determine the most popular and least popular ones in the country.  We started off this month with the first 17.  Here's how they stack up from best net favorability to worst:

State	Favorability	Spread
Pennsylvania	40/11	+29
Indiana	31/12	+19
Idaho	30/11	+19
Arizona	39/22	+17
Maryland	31/15	+16
New Mexico	30/15	+15
Georgia	31/20	+11
Minnesota	27/17	+10
Rhode Island	26/16	+10
Texas	40/31	+9
Massachusetts	35/27	+8
Arkansas	25/20	+5
Alabama	27/26	+1
Louisiana	24/24	Even
Utah	24/27	-3
Mississippi	22/28	-6
Illinois	19/29	-10

Thoughts on Bayh

I can't believe I'm saying this but I really think Republicans have a chance to win back the Senate this fall now.

Let's be realistic- there was a Rasmussen view of Indiana that showed Evan Bayh down to Mike Pence and barely up on John Hostettler and a Research 2000 view that showed him safe for reelection. If the latter was the real state of things I don't think Bayh would be dropping out this late in the game. I have to think he knew he had a really tough fight on his hands and he didn't have the stomach for it, just like what happened with his decision not to run for President in 2008.

So I think the GOP will be favored in Indiana however the candidate field shakes out this week, and I think the GOP is favored in Arkansas, Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and North Dakota as well. Win all those and you have a 52-48 Democratic Senate. Beyond that you have Illinois looking like a toss up and then California and New York looking like they definitely have the potential to become highly competitive based on the incumbents' lack of popularity and Washington and Wisconsin as maybe the longest shots for the GOP but possible with an A list candidate.

And really, if it's a 50-50 situation does anyone trust Joe Lieberman not to throw his hat with the Republicans? Three months ago I would have said Republicans have about a 5% chance of taking back the Senate. Now I'd put it more in the one in three chance range, and rising by the week. And who knows when the bad news for Democrats will stop pouring in...

The problems with Coats

One of the interesting things about the worsening Senate picture for Democrats is that there's not a single race where an incumbent is likely to lose due to the Republicans having a strong candidate. If the election was today I'm pretty sure Blanche Lincoln, Harry Reid, Michael Bennet, and Arlen Specter would go down but that has everything to do with themselves/national climate and very little to do with John Boozman, Sue Lowden, Jane Norton, Pat Toomey, or any of the other GOP candidates running in those races. None of the Republican candidates are exactly all stars.

Which brings me to the news of Dan Coats' candidacy in Indiana. I think all things being equal Evan Bayh's fate would be determined by what voters think about Evan Bayh, Barack Obama, and national Democrats. Because of that I think if Republicans made Indiana a priority race they would do about equally well with any competent, well funded candidate regardless of their early name recognition- ala Kay Hagan or Jeff Merkley two years ago.

The thing about running Dan Coats is that he brings baggage to the race. The carpetbagger argument that can be made against him for being registered to vote in Virginia for the last decade is a real one- just ask Elizabeth Dole. Bayh can make some real contrasts for the voters by noting how many days he's spent in Indiana over the last few years compared to Coats. And of course it will be hard for Coats to run against the Washington political establishment when he's very much a part of it.

For those reasons I actually think Coats is a worse candidate than some more unknown Republican would be- because Bayh can plausibly shift the focus from being all about him to making it about his opponent as well. That's not to say Bayh will definitely win, but if he was going to face a tough challenge no matter what there are some things about Coats that make him a more desirable opponent than someone who could run as an outsider.

David Broder: Oops

As the Electoral College finalizes the Presidential election results today, I was reminded of what David Broder wrote in a column shortly after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries:

The two states that voted on Tuesday — Indiana and North Carolina — are so unimportant to Democratic chances of electing the next president that it is unlikely Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would make more than a token appearance in either after one of them is nominated.

Of course Barack Obama ended up spending quite a bit of time in- and winning- both.

I dredge this up not to make Broder look bad- I don't think much of anyone except the Obama campaign itself thought those victories were possible at that point- but as another reminder of just how improbable and remarkable some of Obama's successes this year really were.

Indiana too close to call

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for President are Republican
John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for? If John McCain, press 1. If Barack
Obama, press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
McCain.................... 48%
Obama.................... 49%
Undecided............... 3%

Q2 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Mitch Daniels and Democrat Jill Long
Thompson. If the election was today, who
would you vote for? If you would vote for the
Republican, Mitch Daniels, press 1. If for the
Democrat, Jill Long Thompson, press 2. if
you’re undecided, press 3.
Daniels............................................................ 60%
Thompson....................................................... 37%
Undecided....................................................... 3%

Indiana Results

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 48

Buoyed by a strong 54-37 edge with independent voters, Barack Obama has a small lead in Indiana.

Like in many states Obama is going into election day with a strong advantage. A little under a quarter of likely voters have already cast their ballots and with those folks Obama has a 64-35 lead. John McCain is up 52-44 with those planning to vote on election day.

Obama is keeping McCain's lead with white voters in the state in single digits, a necessity given its small black population. McCain is up 53-44 with white voters and Obama probably needs to keep him there in order to pull the upset.

Obama's success is also contingent on strong support from voters under 30, with whom he has a 56-39 lead. He needs them to turn out if he's going to take the state.

Full results here.

Indiana State Offices

Mitch Daniels is going to be reelected Governor in a walk. He leads 60-37, an even greater margin than he showed in PPP's last poll of the state.

The races for Attorney General and Superintendent are extremely close. Linda Pence and Greg Zoeller are tied at 44 for AG. Republican Tony Bennett has a small lead over Richard Wood, 43-40, with a large number of voters still undecided.

Full results here.