Public Policy Polling

Obama leads by 4 points in Virginia, 5 points in Ohio

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

Obama leads in Ohio and Virginia

PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.

Democrats are also well positioned to win the US Senate races in each of these states. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 52/46 in Virginia's open seat race and Sherrod Brown's up 54/44 for reelection against Josh Mandel. It's a similar story in both states. Voters like the Democratic candidates- Brown has a 48/43 approval rating and Kaine has a 50/40 favorability rating. And they don't much care for the Republican contenders- Mandel's favorability is 36/50 and Allen's is 42/48.

There is one piece of good news for Republicans in these polls- Ohio's proposed independent redistricting commission is headed for defeat with 39% of voters planning to support it compared to 49% who are opposed.

Full results here

Democrats lead Senate races in Virginia and Wisconsin

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's new Virginia and Wisconsin Senate polls find the Democratic candidates in position to hold onto both of these open seats in next month's election.

There's been a big shift over the last three weeks in Virginia. After months of polling showing a tied race, Tim Kaine has now broken open a 51-44 advantage over George Allen. Just three weeks ago the candidates were separated by only a point at 47-46.

The big shift over the last three weeks has been with independent voters, who've gone from being effectively tied to supporting Kaine by a 53/40 margin. Kaine's also cut Allen's lead with white voters almost in half from 16 points at 55-39 to 9 points at 52-43. Any Democrat who can hold a Republican to a single digit advantage with white voters in Virginia is going to win handily. Kaine's also leading with both women (53-41) and men (49-47).

Dems lead Senate races in VA, WI

PPP's new Virginia and Wisconsin Senate polls find the Democratic candidates in position to hold onto both of these open seats in next month's election.

There's been a big shift over the last three weeks in Virginia. After months of polling showing a tied race, Tim Kaine has now broken open a 51-44 advantage over George Allen. Just three weeks ago the candidates were separated by only a point at 47-46.

The big shift over the last three weeks has been with independent voters, who've gone from being effectively tied to supporting Kaine by a 53/40 margin. Kaine's also cut Allen's lead with white voters almost in half from 16 points at 55-39 to 9 points at 52-43. Any Democrat who can hold a Republican to a single digit advantage with white voters in Virginia is going to win handily. Kaine's also leading with both women (53-41) and men (49-47).

Three weeks ago Allen's favorability was 41/41 and now it's 44/45, not a particularly significant shift. The movement towards Kaine has more to do with voters warming up to him. 50% see him favorably now to 41% with a negative opinion, up from a 42/44 spread on our last poll. Kaine's in the driver's seat heading into the last month of this race.

The Wisconsin Senate race has been very steady over the last month. Tammy Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson by a 3 point margin, 49-46. PPP's done three polls there since Labor Day and Baldwin's held a 3-4 point lead in every one of them.

Kaine slightly ahead in Virginia

Raleigh, N.C. – A poll conducted over the weekend shows Tim Kaine ahead of George Allen by one point for Senate (47-46).  This poll shows an increase in favoritism to Kaine, who was tied with Allen for Senate in August (46-46).  George Allen’s favorability has decreased over the month by two points, down 41 from 43.  However, opinions of Tim Kaine have also decreased from 45 to 42.

This will be a neck-and-neck race until election day.  Kaine takes 89% of the Democratic vote, while Allen takes 89% of the Republican vote.  53% of men back George Allen, while 52% of women support Tim Kaine.  Those who identify as somewhat liberal (86%) or very liberal (82%) back Kaine.  George Allen is supported by 80% of those who are very conservative and 79% of those who identify as somewhat conservative.  Kaine does take a large portion of the African-American vote, pulling in 82%.

Kaine and Allen continue to be neck and neck

-PPP's newest poll of the Virginia Senate race finds...the same thing as pretty much every poll of this race conducted the entire cycle- a contest that's too close to call. Tim Kaine is ahead of George Allen by the thinnest of margins, 47-46. The candidates were tied at 46 a month ago.

These candidates are dead even about every way you look at it. 89% of Democrats are voting for Kaine. 89% of Republicans are voting for Allen. They're virtually tied with independents, with Allen having just a 44-43 advantage.

Their favorability numbers split pretty evenly as well. 41% of voters have a favorable opinion of Allen while 41% see him unfavorably. They're closely divided on Kaine as well with 42% giving him positive marks to 44% with a negative opinion.

There's not much reason to think this race will ever end up with one of the candidates winning by more than a point or two. The undecideds are voting for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney 41-36 so Kaine may have a slight edge with them but it's nothing like in Massachusetts or Nevada where the Senate undecideds are overwhelmingly Democratic leaning.

-Virginia's eminent domain amendment is leading by a wide margin right now, 43-19, although the 38% of voters undecided indicates many folks aren't exactly sure what it's about. There's bipartisan consensus on the amendment with independents (46/16), Democrats (42/22), and Republicans (39/18) all supporting it in relatively similar numbers.

-Virginia baseball fans have hopped on board the Nationals bandwagon. When we asked folks last summer what their favorite baseball team was 19% picked the Braves, 14% picked the Yankees, and the Nationals could manage only a third place tie with the Red Sox at 11%. But what a difference a year makes- the playoff bound Nationals now lead the way for most popular team honors with 19% to 13% each for the Braves and Yankees, and 11% for the Orioles. The Red Sox have slipped back to 7%. It looks like a lot of folks are shifting from the Braves to the Nats with the team's success this year.

Allen and Kaine tied in Virginia

Raleigh, N.C. -- According to the latest poll in the state, Democrat Tim Kaine and George Allen are now an even match for U.S. Senate. Both candidates take 46% of the vote with George Allen up two points from PPP’s last poll on the race in July.  Kaine continues to lead among women 50-39, while Allen gains more support from men, now 53-40.  Tim Kaine now takes 86-6 of the Democratic support, up two points from July, while George Allen now has 88-4 of Republicans, up one point from the previous poll.

“The Virginia Senate race continues to be inside the margin of error,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Neither candidate has been able to separate himself and it seems unlikely that will happen between now and November either.”

Kaine and Allen tied

PPP's newest look at the Virginia Senate race finds Tim Kaine and George Allen dead even at 46%. Although we've always found a tight contest, this is the first time in our last five polls that Kaine hasn't had a modest lead. Last month Kaine had a 46-44 advantage.

The numbers break down pretty much as you would expect. Kaine is up 50/39 with women, while Allen has a 53/40 advantage with men. There's almost no spillover across party lines- only 6% of Democrats are planning to vote for Allen and just 4% of Republicans are supporting Kaine. Allen leads 55-37 with white voters, and Kaine leads 66-25 with non-white voters. Kaine leads 49-40 with voters under 45, and Allen leads 50-43 with voters over 45. Everything about this race is about as predictable as it could be.

Allen and Kaine have very similar favorability numbers as well. Allen comes out at a net +2 with 43% of voters seeing him favorably to 41% with an unfavorable opinion. Kaine is at a net +1 with 45% of voters rating him positively to 44% who have a negative view.

Nothing in this race ever really changes.

Other notes from Virginia:

Kaine leads Allen by two in Virginia

Raleigh, N.C. – Tim Kaine leads George Allen 46%-44% in the race to succeed Jim Webb in the U.S. Senate. Kaine’s lead has grown by one point since the last time PPP polled the race in April. At that time, Kaine led 46-45. Kaine leads Allen by 11 points among women, 49-38, while Allen leads among men 50-42. Both men take similar percentages of their respective party voters, with Democrats lining up behind Kaine 84-7 and Republicans supporting Allen 87-8.  It is among Independent voters where Kaine finds his advantage, leading Allen among them by a 45-37 margin.

Kaine also benefits from a net positive favorability rating, with 43% of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 38% unfavorable, largely unchanged from a 42-37 rating he received in last April’s poll. Allen’s numbers aren’t quite as good, with 39% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him and 42% unfavorable – a change for the worse from April when voters were split 38-38.

Kaine/Allen remains close

PPP's newest poll on the Virginia Senate race finds the same thing pretty much every survey on it for the last year and a half has- an extremely close contest with little movement. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 46-44 this month, just one point different from late April when Kaine was ahead 45-44.

Independents are giving Kaine his slight lead. Allen actually has his party a little bit more unified around him, taking 87% of Republicans to Kaine's 84% of Democrats. Allen's 65% showing in the primary was a little bit less than expected, but he's not having any trouble getting the base in line. But Kaine's ahead 45-37 with independents, and that's allowing him to have the overall advantage.

Kaine's proving to be better liked by voters. He has a +5 net favorability rating at 43/38. Meanwhile Allen comes in at a -3% spread with 39% rating him positively to 42% with a negative opinion.

One thing that's been surprising in each of our last 2 polls is Allen getting 18-21% of the black vote. It seems unlikely he'll be able to get that much in the end (although he did get 15% in 2006 according to the exit poll) but it might help explain why Kaine's not shying away from appearing with Obama in public. Also, although there aren't a lot of undecideds, it's worth noting that they support Obama 41-29 in the Presidential race, so it wouldn't hurt Kaine to try to grab onto those coattails.

We also took a look ahead to next year's race for Governor. The most likely scenario would seem to be Terry McAuliffe for the Democrats against either Ken Cuccinelli or Bill Bolling for the Republicans. Only Cuccinelli out of that group has much name recognition- 64% of voters are familiar with him compared to 31% each for Bolling and McAuliffe. But that notoriety may not be a good thing- while Bolling has a slight lead over McAuliffe, 36-33, McAuliffe has a small advantage over Cuccinelli, 41-37. Bolling also does 5 points better in a hypothetical contest with Tom Perriello than Cuccinelli does- there's a clear electability difference at this point between the Republican front runners.