Public Policy Polling

Dayton leads potential opponents for reelection

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s newest Minnesota poll finds Governor Mark Dayton with a 49% approval rating to 47% disapproval and 4% not sure. Potential Republican challenger Kurt Daudt has a 6% approval rating to 15% disapproval. Tom Emmer elicits positive ratings from 20% of voters and negative ones from 37%. David Hann has a 4% favorable rating and 16% unfavorable rating. Scott Honour has a 3% favorability rating to 11% unfavorable. Jeff Johnson has a positive rating of 6% and negative rating of 13%. Julie Rosen has ratings of 9% favorable and 13% unfavorable. Dave Thompson’s favorability rating is 8% and a 13% unfavorable rating. 10% like Kurt Zellers, and 25% have a negative opinion of him.

Governor Dayton would beat Kurt Daudt 51% to 39%.  Dayton leads Tom Emmer 52% to 39%. He has a 51% to 36% advantage over David Hann. Dayton leads Scott Honour 52%-34%. He also has Jeff Johnson by 52%-34%. Voters favor Dayton over Julie Rosen 51%-34%. Dayton leads Dave Thompson 51%-35%. He leads Kurt Zellers 53%-35%.

Dayton numbers drop, but still favored over Republicans

Mark Dayton's poll numbers have taken a slide over the last four months, but he still looks like a pretty big favorite for reelection against the folks considering a run against him.

In January Dayton's approval was a +14 spread at 53/39. It's dropped a net 12 points since then and now 49% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 47% who disapprove. He hasn't lost much support with Democrats but independents have turned against him to some extent, going from 49/40 approval to 39/54. Republicans have also further hardened against him, going from 14/80 to 8/90.

Nevertheless Dayton still has a double digit lead against every Republican we tested against him. Kurt Daudt trails by 12 points at 51/39, Tom Emmer is down 13 at 52/39, David Hann has a 15 point deficit at 51/36, Dave Thompson is 16 back at 51/35, Julie Rosen trails by 17 at 51/34, and Scott Honour, Jeff Johnson, and Kurt Zellers each trail by 18 at 52/34, 52/34, and 53/35 respectively.

There are a couple different ways to process those numbers. We tested Johnson, Rosen, and Zellers against Dayton in January and he was doing an average of 6 points better against that trio then than he is now. At the same time Dayton defeated Emmer by less than a point in 2010 but leads him by 13 now. The best way to sum up is that Dayton is a good deal stronger than he was when first elected, but somewhat weaker than he was at the start of the year.

Other notes from Minnesota:

Hillary leads Dem 2016 field among Massachusetts voters

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Massachusetts poll finds Hillary Clinton leading among 2016 Democratic primary contenders. Clinton got the support of 55% of Bay Staters, compared to 17% for Joe Biden, 4% for Andrew Cuomo, 1% for Martin O’Malley and negligible support for Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner. Home-state contenders Elizabeth Warren and Deval Patrick each received 4%.

“It says a lot about the universal desire for Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic candidate in 2016 that she’s over 50% in Massachusetts even with two home state officials in the mix,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

On matters of state politics, Massachusetts voters are somewhat divided. 48% approve of Governor Deval Patrick’s job performance, to 41% who disapprove. This is very close to the 48%-38% spread PPP found last October, suggesting Patrick’s leadership after the Boston bombing hasn’t much changed voters’ perceptions of him. Elizabeth Warren receives a similarly split verdict; 44% approve of her job performance, and 39% disapprove.

Hillary over 50 even in Massachusetts

-More than 50% of Democrats in Massachusetts want Hillary Clinton to be their candidate for President in 2016. In a sense that's unremarkable- it's what we find everywhere we poll. But what makes it remarkable in Massachusetts is that she's over 50% despite the fact that we included 2 Bay State politicians- Governor Deval Patrick and Senator Elizabeth Warren- and she's still over 50%. 55% would like her to be the nominee to 17% for Joe Biden, 4% each for Warren, Patrick, and Andrew Cuomo, and 1% for Martin O'Malley. It's just another data point of how overwhelming the desire is for Hillary in 2016.

-Our first look at Senator Elizabeth Warren's approval numbers finds 44% of voters approving of her to 39% who disapprove. That +5 net approval is pretty much in line with her 8 point margin of victory last fall. Deval Patrick's approval rating is 48/41- the 48% approval is identical to what we found when we last polled on him in October.

-We're coming up on the 9th anniversary of gay marriage being legal in Massachusetts, and only 15% of voters in the state think its being legal has had a negative impact on life there. 25% believe it's had a positive impact and 60% don't think it's had any effect on them one way or the other. Overall 58% of Massachusetts voters support gay marriage to just 32% opposed.

Hassan riding high in New Hampshire, safe for 2014 re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Maggie Hassan’s high job approval rating and significant double-digit leads over five possible Republican challengers indicate that the incumbent Democratic governor will start out ahead for  re-election in 2014 if she decides to run, according to PPP’s first New Hampshire poll since the 2012 election.

Hassan has a +19 job approval rating with 50% of voters approving and 31% disapproving of her performance. Democrats (80/8) and independents (47/29) approve of Hassan, who also nabs 18% support from Republicans. She has 14 to 20 point leads over five possible GOP opponents. She leads Jeb Bradley 52/38, Chris Sununu 53/37, Ted Gastas 51/35, Frank Guinta 54/36 and Kevin Smith 52/32. None of these potential candidates have a positive favorability rating with New Hampshire voters.

Ayotte faces backlash over gun vote

Gun show background checks are pretty universally popular in New Hampshire...and Kelly Ayotte is facing some serious backlash from voters in the state for voting against them last week.

Ayotte now has a negative approval rating with 44% of voters giving her good marks and 46% disapproving. That's down a net 15 points from the last time we polled on her, in October, when she had a 48% approval with 35% disapproving. 75% of New Hampshire voters- including 95% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 56% of Republicans- say they support background checks. And 50% of voters in the state say Ayotte's 'no' vote will make them less likely to support her in a future election, compared to just 23% who consider it to be a positive.

Ayotte won her seat in 2010 by 23 points. But in a very early hypothetical match up between her and new Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan, she trails by a 46/44 margin. This issue is really giving her some trouble.

Speaking of Hassan, she's off to a good start in her first term as Governor. 50% of voters approve of her to only 31% who disapprove, including a 47/29 spread with independents. She holds leads ranging from 14 to 20 points over five potential Republican foes for reelection that we tested against her.

Former Congressman Jeb Bradley does the best but still trails by 14 points at 52/38. He is followed by Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas and Sununu family member Chris Sununu who trail by 16 points each at 51/35 and 53/37 respectively, former Congressman Frank Guinta who trails by 18 at 54/36, and 2012 primary runner up Kevin Smith who has a 20 point deficit at 52/32. Hassan holds a double digit lead among independents and pulls double digit support from Republican voters in each match up.

A few other notes from New Hampshire:

Colorado voters support gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – Colorado voters like the civil unions bill the legislature passed earlier this year, supporting it by a 50/38 margin. But they'd also like to take it a step further, supporting full marriage rights for same sex couples by a 51/43 spread. Voters under 30 favor it by a 74/17 margin.

Although he is a strong favorite for reelection as Governor next year, there's not a lot of enthusiasm in Colorado for a 2016 John Hickenlooper Presidential bid. Only 21% of voters in the state think he should run to 65% who think he should not, and even among Democrats just 30% would like to see him run with 48% dissenting. Hickenlooper does hold a narrow 47/45 advantage over Rand Paul and Marco Rubio in hypothetical match ups. But even without the benefit of home state advantage Hillary Clinton does slightly better than Hickenlooper in the state, leading Paul 48/45 and Rubio 48/44.

Colorado favors gay marriage

-Colorado voters like the civil unions bill the legislature passed earlier this year, supporting it by a 50/38 margin. But they'd also like to take it a step further, supporting full marriage rights for same sex couples by a 51/43 spread. Voters under 30 favor it by a 74/17 margin.

-Although he is a strong favorite for reelection as Governor next year, there's not a lot of enthusiasm in Colorado for a 2016 John Hickenlooper Presidential bid. Only 21% of voters in the state think he should run to 65% who think he should not, and even among Democrats just 30% would like to see him run with 48% dissenting. Hickenlooper does hold a narrow 47/45 advantage over Rand Paul and Marco Rubio in hypothetical match ups. But even without the benefit of home state advantage Hillary Clinton does slightly better than Hickenlooper in the state, leading Paul 48/45 and Rubio 48/44.

Clinton and Paul are neck and neck in Kentucky

Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton is standing her ground in a historically red state with a favorability rating of 45% and an equal likelihood of voters choosing her over Rand Paul.

When asked whether they would vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Rand Paul, 45% of voters chose Clinton and 45% of voters chose Rand Paul. 10% of voters were unsure. Hillary Clinton does even better against Marco Rubio with a 6 point lead (46-40).

“Hillary Clinton’s competitiveness in Kentucky shows what a formidable Presidential candidate she would be in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Democrats haven’t been able to make it a race in Kentucky since her husband was on the ticket almost 20 years ago.”

Kentucky Miscellany

-PPP's newest Kentucky poll continues to find that Hillary Clinton would have the potential to make the state competitive in 2016, something no Democrat's been able to do since her husband was on the ballot. Clinton has a positive favorability rating at 45/43 in the state, an impressive feat for any national Democrat. She musters a tie with home state Senator Rand Paul at 45, and leads early Republican front runner Marco Rubio by a 46/40 margin.

Kentuckians are cool toward a potential Paul Presidential bid. 30% want him to run in 2016, while 50% think he should not. He would be the top choice of Republicans in the state though- 31% say he would be their preferred candidate to 17% for Rubio, 13% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Chris Christie, 4% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Paul Ryan, 2% each for Rick Perry and Rick Santorum, and 1% for Susana Martinez.

-Kentucky voters are evenly divided on the passage of stricter gun laws. 46% are supportive of them and 46% are opposed. Those kinds of numbers in a very conservative state like Kentucky reinforce national numbers showing pretty strong support for more stringent gun control.

-Support for gay marriage is on the rise nationally but it's going to be a long time before Kentucky voters get behind it. Only 27% of voters in the state think it should be legal, compared to 65% who think it should be illegal. Even among Democrats there's still 37/54 opposition. 52% of Kentuckians do though support at least civil unions for same sex couples compared to only 44% who believe those relationships should receive no legal recognition at all. That divide- opposition to marriage, support for civil unions- is what we find throughout most of the south.