Public Policy Polling

Obama up 4 in Colorado

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Colorado poll finds Barack Obama's position improving slightly in the state after his debate victory this week. He now leads Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 50-47 spread last week.

Colorado voters think Obama was the winner of Monday night's debate by a 51/38 margin, and it seems to be having a positive impact on his approval numbers. 51% of voters give him good marks to 47% who disapprove, up from a 49/49 spread last week. Romney's favorability numbers are unchanged from a week ago with 48% of voters rating him favorably and 49% unfavorably. Voters trust Obama more on both the economy (50/46) and Libya (53/44) than they do Romney.

Obama has a 51/43 lead with independents. Beyond that his advantage is being driven by large margins with women (54/44), Hispanics (65/34), and young voters (60/35). Romney's main areas of support are with men (49/47), whites (52/46), and seniors (56/41).

Obama leads by 4 in Colorado

PPP's newest Colorado poll finds Barack Obama's position improving slightly in the state after his debate victory this week. He now leads Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 50-47 spread last week.

Colorado voters think Obama was the winner of Monday night's debate by a 51/38 margin, and it seems to be having a positive impact on his approval numbers. 51% of voters give him good marks to 47% who disapprove, up from a 49/49 spread last week. Romney's favorability numbers are unchanged from a week ago with 48% of voters rating him favorably and 49% unfavorably. Voters trust Obama more on both the economy (50/46) and Libya (53/44) than they do Romney.

Obama has a 51/43 lead with independents. Beyond that his advantage is being driven by large margins with women (54/44), Hispanics (65/34), and young voters (60/35). Romney's main areas of support are with men (49/47), whites (52/46), and seniors (56/41).

Obama leads by 4 in Nevada, Senate race tied

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Nevada poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51/47, numbers exactly identical to what they were when we last polled the state two weeks ago. Obama is already well on his way to winning Nevada based on early votes that have been cast in the week. Among those who say they've already voted he has a 61/39 advantage. Romney is up 51/46 with those planning to vote between now and election day.

The debates over the last couple weeks seem to have improved Obama's image in Nevada. 52% of voters approve of him now to 46% who disapprove, up from a 49/48 spread on our last poll. Nevadans think Obama won Monday's debate by a 50/38 margin.

Obama's leading based on advantages of 69/28 with Hispanics, 82/12 with African Americans, 54/44 with women, and 58/39 with young voters. Romney's ahead with men (50/48), whites (57/42), and seniors (53/45). He also has a 53/44 advantage with independents but he'd probably need to take them by a wider margin than that to overcome the Democratic registration edge in the state.

Obama holds 3-point lead in Colorado

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Colorado poll finds Barack Obama holding onto a small lead over Mitt Romney, 50/47. That's down from a 51/45 advantage before the first Presidential debate and matches the smallest lead PPP has found for Obama in the state all year.

Romney's seen the same kind of improvement in his image in Colorado that he has throughout the country this month. In September his favorability was a net -6 spread with 45% of voters seeing him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion. That's improved by 5 points to -1 at 48/49. Meanwhile Obama's seen a slight decline in his numbers, with his approval dipping from positive ground at 50/47 to break even at 49/49.

Obama's continuing to lead thanks largely to a 51/42 advantage with independents. There's a large generational gap in Colorado with voters under 65 supporting Obama 51/46, but seniors preferring Romney 55/43. Romney has a narrow advantage with white voters at 50/47, but Obama more than offsets that with big leads among Hispanics (59/38) and other non-white voters (59/29).

Obama leads by 3 points in Colorado

PPP's newest Colorado poll finds Barack Obama holding onto a small lead over Mitt Romney, 50/47. That's down from a 51/45 advantage before the first Presidential debate and matches the smallest lead PPP has found for Obama in the state all year.

Romney's seen the same kind of improvement in his image in Colorado that he has throughout the country this month. In September his favorability was a net -6 spread with 45% of voters seeing him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion. That's improved by 5 points to -1 at 48/49. Meanwhile Obama's seen a slight decline in his numbers, with his approval dipping from positive ground at 50/47 to break even at 49/49.

Obama's continuing to lead thanks largely to a 51/42 advantage with independents. There's a large generational gap in Colorado with voters under 65 supporting Obama 51/46, but seniors preferring Romney 55/43. Romney has a narrow advantage with white voters at 50/47, but Obama more than offsets that with big leads among Hispanics (59/38) and other non-white voters (59/29).

Obama has the trust advantage on both the economy (50/46) and Libya (50/44), lending more credence to the thought that Romney botched that issue during the debate on Tuesday.

When Gary Johnson is included in the poll he gets 4% and pulls more from Romney than Obama, pushing the President's lead up to 49/44.

Other notes from Colorado:

Obama drops, Tester steady in Montana

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Montana poll finds a steep drop for Barack Obama in the state compared to a month ago. He now trails Mitt Romney by 11 points, 52-41. Previously he had been behind by only 5 points at 50-45.

Montanans have really warmed up to Mitt Romney in the last month. 52% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. That's up a net 9 points from last month when was at a -1 spread (47/48). At the same time Obama's already poor approval numbers have sunk even further. He was already at a 44/54 approval spread last month and that has declined further to 40% now with 56% of voters disapproving of him.

Romney gains in Montana, Tester up 2

PPP's newest Montana poll finds a steep drop for Barack Obama in the state compared to a month ago. He now trails Mitt Romney by 11 points, 52-41. Previously he had been behind by only 5 points at 50-45.

Montanans have really warmed up to Mitt Romney in the last month. 52% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. That's up a net 9 points from last month when was at a -1 spread (47/48). At the same time Obama's already poor approval numbers have sunk even further. He was already at a 44/54 approval spread last month and that has declined further to 40% now with 56% of voters disapproving of him.

When Gary Johnson is included in the poll he gets 6% with Romney leading Obama 50-40. That's consistent with our general finding that Johnson doesn't pull too disproportionately from either Obama or Romney and is thus unlikely to play a spoiler effect in the contest.

The good news for Democrats is that even as Obama's standing has deteriorated in the last month, Jon Tester's has remained unchanged. Last month we found him leading Denny Rehberg 45-43 with Libertarian Dan Cox at 8% and this month we find the exact same numbers for all three candidates. Tester leads thanks to a 45-36 lead with independents and because he's taking 88% of the Democratic vote while only 78% of Republicans stand behind Rehberg.

Obama up 3 in Virginia

Raleigh, N.C. – - PPP's newest Virginia poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-47 in the state, down from a 51-46 advantage three weeks ago. This is the closest we've found the race in Virginia the entire cycle, but Obama continues to find himself at the critical 50% mark in a state where Romney probably can't afford to lose.

Romney's performance in the debate on Wednesday seems to have helped his image with Virginia voters. They think he won the debate by a 61/28 margin, including 71/17 with independents. Compared to our last poll he's seen a 10 point gain in his net favorability rating from -2 at 47/49 in mid-September to now +8 at 52/44. The problem for Romney is that most of that gain has come with Democrats, from 6/90 to 21/76. But still only 8% of those Democrats are actually voting for Romney. Much of the improvement in Romney's image is people going from hating Romney and voting for Obama to respecting Romney but still voting for Obama.

Obama leads by 3 in Virginia

PPP's newest Virginia poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-47 in the state, down from a 51-46 advantage three weeks ago. This is the closest we've found the race in Virginia the entire cycle, but Obama continues to find himself at the critical 50% mark in a state where Romney probably can't afford to lose.

Romney's performance in the debate on Wednesday seems to have helped his image with Virginia voters. They think he won the debate by a 61/28 margin, including 71/17 with independents. Compared to our last poll he's seen a 10 point gain in his net favorability rating from -2 at 47/49 in mid-September to now +8 at 52/44. The problem for Romney is that most of that gain has come with Democrats, from 6/90 to 21/76. But still only 8% of those Democrats are actually voting for Romney. Much of the improvement in Romney's image is people going from hating Romney and voting for Obama to respecting Romney but still voting for Obama.

The reason the race hasn't moved much despite the improvement in Romney's image is that Obama's held steady over the last three weeks in spite of his poor debate performance. 3 weeks ago 50% of Virginians approved of him and 48% disapproved. Now 50% of Virginians approve of him and 48% disapprove. There's been no movement whatsoever in perceptions of his job performance. Obama has a 50/47 advantage over Romney in terms of who voters trust more on the economy, and a 51/46 edge on foreign policy.

Obama leads Romney 52-44 with women while keeping things about equal with men, trailing Romney just 49-48. Romney's up 57-40 with white voters, but would need to win them by a lot more than that to overcome Obama's 90-8 lead with African Americans and 59-34 advantage with other nonwhite voters. The future is looking bright for Democrats in Virginia with voters under 45 supporting Obama 59-38. The race is only close overall because of a 55-43 advantage for Romney with seniors.

Obama leads by 6 points in Colorado

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest Colorado poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-45 in the state. That represents a three point improvement for Obama since Labor Day weekend when he had a 49-46 advantage.

The key for Obama in Colorado is that he's neutralizing or even holding a small lead with some of the groups he tends to struggle with. For instance he's actually slightly ahead, 49-48, with white voters and when you add his typical 65-29 lead with Hispanics to the mix it gives him his overall healthy lead. He's also leading 51-46 with men to go along with his usual advantage among women, 52-44 in this case. Romney does have a 52-45 lead with seniors but Obama more than offsets that with a 58-38 lead among voters under 45.

Since our last poll Obama has seen a 4 point improvement in his net approval rating, from slightly negative ground at 48/49 to slightly positive at 50/47. Romney's seen a small decline in his favorability numbers from 46/50 to 45/51.