PPP's newest national poll finds a pretty steady race- but that the candidates are getting even more unpopular as the election approaches, with undecideds actually going up when they would usually be on the decline at this stage in the campaign. Hillary Clinton leads with 42% to 37% for Donald Trump, 6% for Gary Johnson, 4% for Jill Stein, and 1% for Evan McMullin, with 10% of voters still undecided. A month ago Clinton actually led 46/41 but both she and Trump's support has dropped by 4 points, with support for third party candidates increasing from 8% to 11% and the level of undecideds increasing from 5% to 10%. It's a similar story in the head to head- Clinton's 5 point lead is the same as a month ago, but now it's 48/43 instead of 50/45 with undecideds increasing from 5% to 9%.
One reason for the increased indecision is that both candidates have seen declines in their favorability ratings. They each saw some improvement in those in the immediate aftermath of their conventions, but those gains have already worn off. Clinton's net favorability is -11 at 41/52, down 5 points from when it was -6 at 45/51 a month ago. Trump's net favorability is -27 at 33/60, also down 5 points from -22 at 36/58 on our last poll.
One big thing in this election that continues to work to Clinton's considerable advantage is the popularity of President Obama. He has a 50/46 approval rating, about the best position we've found him in at any point of his second term in office. But more importantly, when voters are asked whether they'd rather have another 4 years of Obama as President or change to the very different direction of Trump, they say they'd rather keep Obama by a 53/41 spread. Clinton positioning herself as a continuation of the current administration is a winning approach.
One reason Trump's campaign may be struggling is that voters just don't buy into the premise that the United States is a dangerous country. Just 26% say they consider it to be, to 64% who don't think it's a dangerous country. That may help explain why Trump's ostensible outreach to African Americans and Latinos- playing up violence within their communities- isn't working. Only 13% of African Americans and Latinos think Trump actually cares about them, to 74% who say they don't think he does. Hillary Clinton is winning their voters 73-9 with Jill Stein at 6% and Gary Johnson at 3%.
Other notes from our national survey: