Public Policy Polling

Barber up 12 in AZ special election

Raleigh, N.C. –  Democrats are headed for a victory in tomorrow's special election to replace Gabby Giffords in the House, but the relevance of the result in Arizona to much of anything else appears limited.

Democrat Ron Barber leads with 53% to 41% for Republican Jesse Kelly, with Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis polling at 4%. Barber is well liked by voters in the district, sporting a 54/38 favorability rating. Kelly, meanwhile, has very high negatives with only 37% of voters rating him positively while 59% have a negative opinion.

Dems likely to hold Giffords seat

Democrats are headed for a victory in tomorrow's special election to replace Gabby Giffords in the House, but the relevance of the result in Arizona to much of anything else appears limited.

Democrat Ron Barber leads with 53% to 41% for Republican Jesse Kelly, with Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis polling at 4%. Barber is well liked by voters in the district, sporting a 54/38 favorability rating. Kelly, meanwhile, has very high negatives with only 37% of voters rating him positively while 59% have a negative opinion.

We find that the likely electorate for tomorrow's election supported Barack Obama over John McCain 50-44. McCain actually won the district by a 52-46 margin in 2008. This, along with the special election in New York's 26th Congressional District last May, is one of only two races recently where we've found a likely electorate significantly more Democratic than the Presidential one in 2008, and it suggests Democrats are unusually motivated to come out and vote to keep Giffords' seat in their hands.

Arizona voters split on Jan Brewer’s job performance

Raleigh, N.C. – Arizona voters are divided on whether they approve of Governor Jan Brewer’s job performance, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. 46% of voters approve of the Governor’s job performance while 47% disapprove. Democrats strongly  disapprove (15/84), Republicans strongly approve (75/18), and a majority of independent voters disapprove (35/54). Most voters would oppose a recall of Governor Brewer, with just 35% supporting such an idea and 58% opposed.

“Voters generally aren’t thrilled with Jan Brewer’s job performance, but they don’t dislike her enough to recall her,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Arizona Odds and Ends

-Arizona voters are pretty evenly divided in their feelings about Governor Jan Brewer. 46% approve of her to 47% who disapprove.  Her numbers are up a little bit from November when she was at 42/49. The effort to recall her is a non starter. Only 35% support removing her from office while 58% are opposed. There are a decent number of voters who don't like her but don't favor a recall either.

-John McCain remains unpopular but actually has his best approval numbers in our polling since September of 2009. 41% of voters approve of the job he's doing while 48% disapprove, up from a 34/55 spread in November. He's seen a little bit of improvement with both Democrats and Republicans but the biggest gain is with independents, who he's gone from 23/66 to 37/51 with.

-Jon Kyl's seen his numbers improve over the last few months as well. His approval rating is now back on positive ground at 48/40, after being 41/44 in November. Voters may be softening towards him as he heads for the exits.

-62% of Arizonans have a favorable opinion of Gabrielle Giffords shortly after her retirement from the House to only 16% with a negative one. She is easily the state's most popular politician. Her popularity carries across party lines- she's at 88/6 with Democrats, 62/13 with independents, and 43/25 with Republicans.

Arizona voters unhappy with Brewer on redistricting

Raleigh, N.C. – Voters in Arizona are unhappy with how Jan Brewer has handled redistricting in the state, and perhaps as a result PPP finds her approval numbers at their worst since before she resuscitated her political career with Senate Bill 1070 last April.

Only 31% of voters support Brewer removing Colleen Mathis as chair of the Redistricting Commission, to 43% who oppose her move. Republican agree with what Brewer did by a 54/16 margin but Democrats are even more unified in their displeasure with her action, 13/72.  Independents think Brewer did the wrong thing by a 19/41 margin as well.

Brewer approval down

Voters in Arizona are unhappy with how Jan Brewer has handled redistricting in the state, and perhaps as a result PPP finds her approval numbers at their worst since before she resuscitated her political career with Senate Bill 1070 last April.

Only 31% of voters support Brewer removing Colleen Mathis as chair of the Redistricting Commission, to 43% who oppose her move. Republican agree with what Brewer did by a 54/16 margin but Democrats are even more unified in their displeasure with her action, 13/72.  Independents think Brewer did the wrong thing by a 19/41 margin as well.

The unhappiness with Brewer's actions shouldn't be taken as an endorsement by the Arizona electorate of the Congressional maps that the Commission proposed. Only 25% of voters express support for the proposed lines with 34% opposed to them and an unsurprising 42% holding no opinion on this decidedly insider baseball issue.  Voters don't necessarily disagree with Brewer that the House map was flawed, they just disagree with the action she took to deal with the problem.

Brewer's approval rating has sunk to 42% with 49% of voters disapproving of her. The last time PPP found her with numbers that bad was in April of 2010, shortly before the signing of Senate Bill 1070, when she was at 35/46. There are two things helping to drive Brewer's poor ratings: Democrats (77%) are more unified in their disapproval of her than Republicans (69%) are in their approval and independents split against her by a 34/51 margin as well.

Despite Brewer's declining poll numbers there's little support for a recall of her. Only 32% of voters would support such a move to 58% who are opposed. There are a lot of voters don't like Brewer, but don't think she should be removed from office either.  This is particularly clear with independents who oppose a recall 25/59, even as they simultaneously give Brewer poor marks for her job performance.

Giffords, Palin or Flake favored by partisans for AZ Sen. noms

Raleigh, N.C. – It should come as no shock that Democrats want Rep. Gabrielle Giffords’ name on the ballot for U.S. Senate next year.  She earns 46% of primary voters’ preferences, while former Attorney General Terry Goddard pulls 28%, and the other six possibilities tested—former Rep. Harry Mitchell, Rep. Ed Pastor, 2010 Senate nominee Rodney Glassman, Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon, 2010 Attorney General nominee Felecia Rotellini, and U.S. Attorney Dennis Burke—measure at only 2-5% apiece.

Giffords strong if runs for AZ Sen., Hayworth, Palin weak

Raleigh, N.C. – With Rep. Gabrielle Giffords recently making her first semi-public appearance since being shot in Tucson almost four months ago, some have speculated about her chances of making a bid for Jon Kyl’s soon-to-be-vacated Senate seat.  PPP’s latest poll shows that if she is able to run, she would start out a strong contender.

Giffords would start with Senate race lead

The Democratic field for the Senate in Arizona has been frozen while people wait to see whether Gabrielle Giffords can run or not and our newest poll in the state tells you why- Giffords is extremely popular and would start the race with a lead.

57% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Giffords to only 17% with a negative one and 26% who have no opinion. Her numbers are sky high with Democrats (81/4) and independents (64/12) and even Republicans have a narrowly positive attitude toward her at 36/30.

Giffords would start out with a 7 point lead over the most likely Republican nominee, Jeff Flake, at 48-41. Giffords has a 24 point advantage over him with independents and takes 17% of the GOP vote while holding him to 9% of the Democratic vote. Giffords would also have a 54-36 lead over Sarah Palin, who there's been some minor buzz about as an Arizona Senate candidate, and a 57-31 lead over JD Hayworth, who challenged John McCain in the primary last year and whom some people think might do the same to Flake.

Even if Giffords does not end up being able to run Democrats should have some chance at taking this open seat. Voters in the state are pretty evenly divided in their feelings about Flake with 29% rating him favorably to 30% with an unfavorable opinion. He's not exactly a juggernaut. Last year's losing Democratic Gubernatorial nominee, Terry Goddard, would tie Flake at 45%. Flake would have wider leads over two other Democrats we tested- 46-34 over Congressman Ed Pastor and 47-33 over Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon.

Gordon is pretty clearly not the direction Democrats want to go in if they hope to win this seat. His statewide favorability runs more than 2:1 negative at 18% with a positive opinion of him and 37% with a negative one. Pastor's not real popular either but he at least comes close to breaking even at 22/27. Goddard would be a good option for Democrats if he could be convinced to make another statewide run- 43% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 36% with a negative one.

Republicans would clearly be better off with Flake than Palin or Hayworth. In addition to trailing Giffords Palin would also start out down 9 to Goddard, 5 to Pastor, and 4 to Gordon. And Hayworth would be down 18 to Goddard, 12 to Pastor, and 8 to Gordon.

This race has been slow to get started while everyone waits to see what Gabrielle Giffords will do and that doesn't seem likely to change any time soon.

Full results here