Public Policy Polling

Warner solid for re-election

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s latest Virginia poll finds Barack Obama with a 49% positive to 48% negative job approval rating in the Commonwealth. Senator Mark Warner’s job performance gets positive ratings by 53%-27%. Senator Tim Kaine enjoys a 44%-38% positive spread. Bob McDonnell has 44% positive marks and negative ratings of 37%.

Virginians have favorable opinions of Bill Bolling by a margin of 22%-20%. Eric Cantor elicits unfavorable opinions from 40% of voters and favorable views from 26%. Mark Warner leads Bolling 54%-33% in the former’s reelection race. Warner tops Cantor by 53%-34%. Bob McDonnell trails Warner 39%-50%.

Warner safe for reelection

Mark Warner continues to be by far and away Virginia's most popular politician, and doesn't look like he would face much trouble for reelection regardless of who the Republicans put up next year.

53% of Virginians approve of the job Warner is doing to only 27% who disapprove. He's at 58/25 with independents, and has 26% crossover approval from Republicans. He would have an 11 point lead in a hypothetical match up with Bob McDonnell, 50/39. He would also lead Eric Cantor by 19 points at 53/34 and Bill Bolling by 21 points at 54/33. Cantor continues to be unpopular statewide, with only 26% of voters rating him favorably to 40% who have a negative opinion.

Other findings from Virginia:

Democrats lead Republicans in upcoming Virginia races

Raleigh, N.C. – Looking forward to the 2014 and 2016 elections with respect to the Senate and Presidential races, Virginia voters prefer Democrats over Republicans.

When asked about the approval of their current elected leaders, Virginia voters approve of the job performance of Democrats, President Obama (53-43), Senator Mark Warner (52-31), and Senator Tim Kaine (42-36, with 22% of voters undecided), while also approving of Republican Governor Bob McDonnell (48-35). Even though Republican Governor McDonnell is approved, Virginians have an unfavorable opinion of Republican Majority Leader, Congressman Eric Cantor (VA-7), who is currently sitting at 44% unfavorable and 27% favorable.

Democrat Mark Warner comes out on top of every pairing with potential Republican candidates for the Senate next year. Warner leads current Lt. Governor Bill Bolling (53-35), Congressman Eric Cantor (56-37), Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (57-36), and Governor Bob McDonnell (52-42).

Warner looks strong for 2014

PPP's newest Virginia poll finds Mark Warner in a strong position no matter who the GOP puts up against him next year. Warner continues to be the state's most popular politician, with 52% of voters approving of him to only 31% who disapprove.

Bob McDonnell has solid numbers too, with a 48/35 approval spread. Even so he would trail Warner 52/42 if he tried to run for the Senate next year. The rest of the Republicans we tested do far worse. Bill Bolling would trail by 18 points at 53/35. Eric Cantor, who's a very unpopular figure with a 27/44 favorability rating, trails Warner 56/37. And likely 2013 Gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli does the worst in a hypothetical head to head with Warner, trailing 57/36. Barring some dramatic reversal of Warner's popularity he looks safe for next year.

Kaine slightly ahead in Virginia

Raleigh, N.C. – A poll conducted over the weekend shows Tim Kaine ahead of George Allen by one point for Senate (47-46).  This poll shows an increase in favoritism to Kaine, who was tied with Allen for Senate in August (46-46).  George Allen’s favorability has decreased over the month by two points, down 41 from 43.  However, opinions of Tim Kaine have also decreased from 45 to 42.

This will be a neck-and-neck race until election day.  Kaine takes 89% of the Democratic vote, while Allen takes 89% of the Republican vote.  53% of men back George Allen, while 52% of women support Tim Kaine.  Those who identify as somewhat liberal (86%) or very liberal (82%) back Kaine.  George Allen is supported by 80% of those who are very conservative and 79% of those who identify as somewhat conservative.  Kaine does take a large portion of the African-American vote, pulling in 82%.

Kaine and Allen continue to be neck and neck

-PPP's newest poll of the Virginia Senate race finds...the same thing as pretty much every poll of this race conducted the entire cycle- a contest that's too close to call. Tim Kaine is ahead of George Allen by the thinnest of margins, 47-46. The candidates were tied at 46 a month ago.

These candidates are dead even about every way you look at it. 89% of Democrats are voting for Kaine. 89% of Republicans are voting for Allen. They're virtually tied with independents, with Allen having just a 44-43 advantage.

Their favorability numbers split pretty evenly as well. 41% of voters have a favorable opinion of Allen while 41% see him unfavorably. They're closely divided on Kaine as well with 42% giving him positive marks to 44% with a negative opinion.

There's not much reason to think this race will ever end up with one of the candidates winning by more than a point or two. The undecideds are voting for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney 41-36 so Kaine may have a slight edge with them but it's nothing like in Massachusetts or Nevada where the Senate undecideds are overwhelmingly Democratic leaning.

-Virginia's eminent domain amendment is leading by a wide margin right now, 43-19, although the 38% of voters undecided indicates many folks aren't exactly sure what it's about. There's bipartisan consensus on the amendment with independents (46/16), Democrats (42/22), and Republicans (39/18) all supporting it in relatively similar numbers.

-Virginia baseball fans have hopped on board the Nationals bandwagon. When we asked folks last summer what their favorite baseball team was 19% picked the Braves, 14% picked the Yankees, and the Nationals could manage only a third place tie with the Red Sox at 11%. But what a difference a year makes- the playoff bound Nationals now lead the way for most popular team honors with 19% to 13% each for the Braves and Yankees, and 11% for the Orioles. The Red Sox have slipped back to 7%. It looks like a lot of folks are shifting from the Braves to the Nats with the team's success this year.

Allen and Kaine tied in Virginia

Raleigh, N.C. -- According to the latest poll in the state, Democrat Tim Kaine and George Allen are now an even match for U.S. Senate. Both candidates take 46% of the vote with George Allen up two points from PPP’s last poll on the race in July.  Kaine continues to lead among women 50-39, while Allen gains more support from men, now 53-40.  Tim Kaine now takes 86-6 of the Democratic support, up two points from July, while George Allen now has 88-4 of Republicans, up one point from the previous poll.

“The Virginia Senate race continues to be inside the margin of error,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Neither candidate has been able to separate himself and it seems unlikely that will happen between now and November either.”

Kaine and Allen tied

PPP's newest look at the Virginia Senate race finds Tim Kaine and George Allen dead even at 46%. Although we've always found a tight contest, this is the first time in our last five polls that Kaine hasn't had a modest lead. Last month Kaine had a 46-44 advantage.

The numbers break down pretty much as you would expect. Kaine is up 50/39 with women, while Allen has a 53/40 advantage with men. There's almost no spillover across party lines- only 6% of Democrats are planning to vote for Allen and just 4% of Republicans are supporting Kaine. Allen leads 55-37 with white voters, and Kaine leads 66-25 with non-white voters. Kaine leads 49-40 with voters under 45, and Allen leads 50-43 with voters over 45. Everything about this race is about as predictable as it could be.

Allen and Kaine have very similar favorability numbers as well. Allen comes out at a net +2 with 43% of voters seeing him favorably to 41% with an unfavorable opinion. Kaine is at a net +1 with 45% of voters rating him positively to 44% who have a negative view.

Nothing in this race ever really changes.

Other notes from Virginia:

Obama leads in both VA and NC

Raleigh, N.C. – For all the twists and turns of his presidency and his re-election campaign so far, President Obama finds himself in very similar shape in two states he surprised the world by winning four years ago as he was then.

Obama has retaken a narrow lead in North Carolina a month after having ceded his edge over Mitt Romney for the first time since last October.  In early June, PPP showed Romney with a two-point edge in the crucial Tar Heel State (48-46).  But now Obama leads by one point (47-46) in a state he took by less than a point four years ago.

Meanwhile, Obama is up eight points in N.C.’s northern neighbor Virginia (50-42).  He topped Romney by an identical margin when PPP last polled the Old Dominion in April (51-43), and beat John McCain by only six points there.

Obama holding serve in the upper South

In 2008 Barack Obama put North Carolina and Virginia in the Democratic column for the first time in decades. PPP's newest poll in those two states finds him running very close to his performance four years ago. In Virginia he leads Mitt Romney by 8 points, 50-42, and in North Carolina he has a single point advantage at 47-46.

Our polling in both of these states has been pretty steady over the last year and a half. Obama has consistently fared very well in Virginia, leading by 6 points, 8 points, and now 8 points again on our last three polls. This is looking like it could be something of a firewall state for him. We have now polled North Carolina 22 times since late November of 2010. 21 out of those 22 times Obama and Romney have been within 3 points of each other. The state's about as much of a toss up as it could possibly be.

Health Care

Voters in both North Carolina and Virginia are pretty evenly divided on the Supreme Court's recent health care ruling. In Virginia 45% of voters say they agree with the ruling while 44% are opposed. In North Carolina the  numbers are nearly identical with an equal 44% both supportive of and opposed to the ruling. For Obama the health care issue as a wash in these swing states is good news given how unpopularly it polled throughout 2009 and 2010.

Feelings about Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts are mixed in both states as well. His favorability rating in Virginia is 34/34 and in North Carolina it's 35/32. Roberts is liked by Democrats in both states (43/18 in Virginia and 46/18 in North Carolina) and disliked by Republicans (23/52 in Virginia and 21/44 in North Carolina).

Although it hasn't received as much attention Obama's recent policy announcement on immigration might cause more trouble for him in these states. Voters oppose it 43/39 in Virginia and 46/40 in North Carolina.

Running Mates

There are several prominent Republican politicians in these states who seem like plausible Romney running mates, but none of them would have much of an impact on the home front. If Bob McDonnell was Romney's choice the race would simply shift from a 50-42 Obama advantage to a 50-43 one in Virginia. If Richard Burr was on the ticket Obama's 47-46 edge in North Carolina would remain completely unchanged.

The one person we looked at who would make a big difference is Eric Cantor in Virginia. Cantor has a 22/41 favorability rating and on the off chance Romney selected him Obama's advantage would become 12 points at 50/38. That's a pretty strong sign of how weak the House Republican brand is right now.