Public Policy Polling

NJ on the 2013 Governor’s race and 2016 Presidential

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest New Jersey poll finds Chris Christie hard to beat in a hypothetical match up for next year’s Governor’s race when pitted against Democrats Cory Booker, Barbara Buono, Richard Codey, Bruce Springsteen and Steve Sweeney. Booker polled closest to Christie, 14 points behind, compared to former Governor Richard Codey, trailing by 22 points. State Senators Steve Sweeney and Barbara Buono fared worse against Christie than The Boss did, with a 36 point spread for Springsteen, to Sweeney’s 37 and Buono’s 40 point deficit. While the news for Democrats is dismal, it’s not surprising- Christie’s approval has never been higher, at 67%. What is surprising is how he performed among women and Democrats. On the topic of Hurricane Sandy, women approved his handling of the storm 91-8 and Democrats 90-9.

Christie strongly favored for reelection, voters still lukewarm on 2016 bid

Chris Christie's the most popular Governor PPP's polled on all year, and he looks pretty safe for reelection next year. But New Jersey voters still aren't sold on him as a Presidential candidate in 2016.

67% of New Jersey voters approve of the job Christie's doing to only 25% who disapprove. He's at 91/8 among Republicans, 65/28 among independents, and 56/32 even among Democrats. Christie's standing outpaces outgoing New Hampshire Governor John Lynch whose 62% approval rating had previously made him the most popular in our polling. 89% of voters approve of how Christie handled Hurricane Sandy to only 9% who disapprove.

Christie would far outpace any of the Democrats who have been discussed as potential candidates for Governor. He leads Cory Booker 50-36, Richard Codey 53-31, Steve Sweeney 57-20, and Barbara Buono 60-20. Against Sweeney and Buono Christie actually wins the Democratic vote, something I don't think PPP has ever found a candidate in any contest we've ever polled doing across party lines. We threw Bruce Springsteen into the poll just for fun and despite a 54/23 favorability rating even he trails Christie by a 61/25 margin in a hypothetical match up.

Booker is the clear first choice of Democrats for who they'd like as their candidate next year. 46% pick him to 23% for Codey with Buono at 7% and Sweeney at 6% far behind.

Despite Christie's massive popularity only 38% of voters in the state want him to run for President in 2016 compared to 44% who don't want to see him make a bid. Christie would trail Hillary Clinton 52-40 in a hypothetical match up among New Jersey voters, although he would lead Joe Biden 47-41 and Andrew Cuomo 50-35. That's not really a knock on Christie so much as it is a testament to Clinton's popularity- 67% of voters in the state see her favorably to only 27% with a negative view.

Booker’s best 2014 hope may be the Senate

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest New Jersey poll finds Cory Booker leading the pack for Democratic Senatorial Candidate in 2014. In a hypothetical head-to-head, Booker leads the race with a 23 point spread over Republican Lieutenant Governor, Kim Guadagno. That lead narrows to15 points when current NJ Senator Frank Lautenberg is pitted against her. The results for Guadagno versus Congressmen Rob Andrews and Frank Pallone are well within the margin of error at 34-35 and 32-32 respectively.

Equally promising for Booker is how voters responded when asked if Frank Lautenberg should retire. 45% said he should retire, compared to 36% saying he should run for reelection. Based on the results, it looks like New Jersey Democrats are ready for a fresher face in the Senate, and would prefer Booker.

Booker could win Senate seat

New Jersey voters like Frank Lautenberg well enough. He has a 43/36 approval rating and in a hypothetical match up with Republican Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno he would lead right now by a 15 point margin at 48/33.

Democratic primary voters are pretty happy with Lautenberg right now too. 63% approve of the job he's doing to 18% who disapprove. Nevertheless they're ready for a fresher face in the Senate. Only 36% of them think Lautenberg should seek another term in 2014, while 45% think he should retire and 20% are not sure.

If Lautenberg was to retire- or even if he doesn't- the choice of New Jersey Democrats to be their next Senator is clear: Cory Booker. By a 59/22 margin Democrats say they would prefer their candidate in 2014 be Booker than Lautenberg. And Booker emerges as the strong favorite in an open seat situation too. 48% would want Booker as their candidate compared to 17% for Rob Andrews and 13% for Frank Pallone, both Congressmen who have shown an interest in moving up.

Booker would be even stronger than Lautenberg in a head to head match up with Guadagno, leading her 52 to 29. 48% of New Jersey voters have a favorable opinion of Booker to only 20% with a negative one. He's very popular with Democrats (60/13) and independents (45/21) and even comes close to breaking even with Republicans at 29/34. In the match up with Guadagno he takes 21% of the GOP vote while losing only 7% of Democrats, and wins independents by an 18 point margin.

Christie in trouble for re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Having skated by to a narrow victory against an unpopular incumbent in a Republican cycle in Democratic leaning New Jersey, Chris Christie had his work ahead of him in winning over the state. One and a half years into his term, he hasn’t succeeded. As is true for many of the newly elected Republican governors, Christie faces underwater approval ratings with only 43% of voters approving and 53% disapproving. This is down significantly from his 48-45 rating in January. About as many Democrats approve of Christie, as Republicans disapprove, 17, but Christie is down with independents 40-54.

Christie on the decline

Chris Christie's popularity has declined significantly over the first half of 2011 and he would have a very difficult time winning reelection if voters in New Jersey went to the polls today.

Only 43% of voters in the state approve of the job Christie is doing to 53% who disapprove. That -10 approval spread represents a 13 point decline from when PPP last polled the state in January, when Christie's standing was 48/45. Christie's numbers are steady with Republicans. But independents have really turned on him, going from approving by a 55/39 margin to disapproving by a 54/40 margin. And his crossover popularity with Democrats is on the decline as well- where 23% approved of him in January now only 16% do.

A majority favor legal same-sex marriage in New Hampshire

Raleigh, N.C. – While neighboring Maine narrowly rejected legalized same-sex marriage in 2009, a majority are prepared to support it in New Hampshire. 51% feel same sex marriage should be legal, compared to only 38% who feel it should be illegal. New Hampshire’s libertarian tendencies show in that, unlike most states, Democrats are more united for legal same-sex marriage, 77-16, than Republicans are against it, 24-63. Voters also prefer same-sex marriage when civil unions are included, with 45% favoring marriage, 35% favoring civil unions, and 19% opposing all recognition.

Both of New Hampshire’s senators are well known, but only moderately popular. 47% approve of Jeanne Shaheen’s performance, compared to 42% who disapprove. This is a considerable slide from her 50-36 rating in April. Similarly, 44% approve of Kelly Ayotte, while 38% disapprove (46-34 in April).

New Hampshire Miscellaneous Poll

-There are a million New Hampshire Republican primary polls out there right now so when we polled the state earlier this month we decided we may as well ask about the 2016 Democratic race too. The answer is not surprising: if Hillary Clinton decided to make another run at the White House she would start out as an overwhelming favorite. 52% of primary voters said she'd be their choice from the options we gave, followed by Joe Biden at 16%. No one else registered in double digits- Andrew Cuomo at 9%, Russ Feingold at 3%, Deval Patrick at 2%, Cory Booker at 1%, and Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner each at 0%.