PPP's new general election poll in Iowa finds mixed results for Hillary Clinton. She leads 3 of the Republicans we tested against her- 46/41 over Jeb Bush, 45/42 over Carly Fiorina, and 45/43 over Donald Trump. And she also ties Ben Carson at 45. But she trails Ted Cruz 47/44 and has a larger deficit against Marco Rubio at 48/41.
Republicans really need Donald Trump to stick by his pledge not to run next year as an independent if he loses the GOP nomination. He gets 23% in a three way contest with Clinton and Rubio, and takes Clinton from trailing Rubio by 7 to leading him by 6 at 39/33. He gets 20% in a three way contest with Clinton and Cruz, and takes Clinton from trailing Cruz by 3 to leading him by 8 at 41/33. Trump running as an independent could be pretty much fatal to Republican hopes of winning next fall.
Bernie Sanders does an average of 2 points better than Clinton in general election match ups in Iowa. He leads 5 out of 6 of the Republicans- 45/39 over Fiorina, 44/40 over Bush, 46/43 over Trump, 44/43 over Cruz, and 43/42 over Carson. The only one he trails is Rubio at 44/42.
Next year's Senate race continues to look like a cakewalk for Chuck Grassley. He is easily the state's most popular politician with a 53/33 approval rating compared to 42/41 for Joni Ernst and 37/48 for Terry Branstad who's posting some of the lowest numbers of his entire time in office right now. Grassley leads all of his potential Democratic opponents by 25 points for reelection- it's 54/29 over Tom Fiegen and Rob Hogg and 53/28 over Bob Krause.
Other notes from Iowa: