Public Policy Polling

Charlotte mixed on McCrory second try

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Mayor Pat
McCrory’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 59%
Disapprove...................................................... 26%
Not Sure.......................................................... 14%

Q2 Would you like to see Pat McCrory run for
Governor again in 2012? If yes, press 1. If no,
press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Yes ................................................................. 51%
No ................................................................... 40%
Not Sure.......................................................... 9%

Mixed messages on McCrory

Pat McCrory is leaving office as Mayor of Charlotte with his popularity intact. But that doesn't mean voters in the city are yearning for him to run for Governor again.

McCrory's final approval rating is 59%, with only 26% disapproving. He has the approval of 81% of Republicans and 62% of independents and his 39% approval rating with Charlotte Democrats is actually better than Bev Perdue's 38% approval with Democrats statewide in our most recent poll.

Despite his good overall numbers only 51% of voters in the city want him to challenge Perdue again in 2012, with 40% opposed.

The party breakdown on those numbers speaks to the trouble McCrory had with voters in the city last fall. Most Republicans who like the job he's doing want him to run again- but only 46% of independents would like to see him make a bid despite his 62% approval with them and just 27% of Democrats want him to even though 39% think he's a good Mayor.

McCrory's popularity as Mayor didn't translate to support for Governor in 2008 at the sort of level that he needed, and it looks like he might continue to be plagued by that problem with a repeat bid in 2012. Given the strong unhappiness many Charlotte residents express with their treatment by the rest of the state this is somewhat curious, but for most voters in the city party still trumps province.

Full results here

The 2009 race in North Carolina

In the end the 2009 elections in North Carolina told us very little about 2010.

There were good signs for Republicans:

-Energized conservatives turned out in large numbers for the Wake County School Board races, electing all of their candidates and defeating an incumbent Democratic Raleigh City Councilman in the process.

-Defeated Democratic Mayor Yvonne Johnson in Greensboro, the first incumbent ever to lose that office. Johnson's loss is the continuation of Republican gains on the Greensboro City Council that began in 2007.

But there were also good signs for Democrats:

-Anthony Foxx turned out more Obama wave voters in the Charlotte Mayoral race than we had anticipated, pushing him over the top and bringing David Howard as a third Democratic City Councilman along with him. The lesson there is that the new voters will come back out- with a good candidate. Foxx was a good candidate. Creigh Deeds in Virginia and Jon Corzine in New Jersey were not.

-Democrats swept the Asheville City Council race, dispatching controversial conservative and 2008 Republican Congressional nominee Carl Mumpower.

Ultimately these races were decided by local issues and the strengths of the candidates involved. It was a good night for the GOP nationally but the lesson in North Carolina is that if Democrats have good candidates who run effective campaigns they may be able to overcome the national tide.

Lassiter moves into small lead

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 If the candidates for Mayor this fall were
Democrat Anthony Foxx and Republican John
Lassiter, who would you vote for? If Anthony
Foxx, press 1. If John Lassiter, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Foxx................................................................ 46%
Lassiter ........................................................... 50%
Undecided....................................................... 3%

Q2 The candidates for City Council are Republican
Tariq Scott Bokhari, Democrat Susan Burgess,
Democrat Patrick Cannon, Democrat David
Howard, Republican Edwin Peacock,
Democrat Darrin Rankin, Republican Jaye
Rao, and Republican Matthew Ridenhour. You
may vote for up to four candidates. Who is
your first choice for City Council? If Tariq Scott
Bokhari, press 1. If Susan Burgess, press 2. If
Patrick Cannon, press 3. If David Howard,
press 4. If Edwin Peacock, press 5. If Darrin
Rankin, press 6. If Jaye Rao, press 7. If
Matthew Ridenhour, press 8. If you’re
undecided, press 9.
Bokhari............................................................ 12%
Burgess........................................................... 26%
Cannon ........................................................... 13%
Howard ........................................................... 7%
Peacock.......................................................... 22%
Rankin............................................................. 4%
Rao ................................................................. 3%
Ridenhour ....................................................... 5%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Lassiter takes small lead

John Lassiter leads Anthony Foxx 50-46 in PPP's final survey of the Charlotte Mayoral race.

If Lassiter does indeed end up as the winner it will be his overwhelming support among white voters that made it possible. He leads 68-29 with them, up from 63-29 a week ago. Those numbers are a good deal more lopsided even than the McCain/Obama numbers in North Carolina. Foxx is up 86-12 with African Americans.

Not a lot more to say on this- the race is still within the margin of error and it's all going to be about who turns out tomorrow.

Susan Burgess, Edwin Peacock, Patrick Cannon, and Tariq Scott Bokhari continue to lead the City Council races with David Howard moving closer.

Full results here

The McCrory Effect

Charlotte's a Democratic city but John Lassiter is hanging in there and one person he really owes for that is Pat McCrory.

Last year George W. Bush was an anchor on Republican candidates across the country as he left office but McCrory's continuing popularity seems to be helping Lassiter secure the crossover support from Democrats and independents that he needs to be competitive. McCrory's approval rating is 60%. For the occasional grumbling from the right over the years he has the support of 85% of Republicans. His 69% approval with independents is one of the best we've measured for any politician in the country this year and even Democrats are pretty evenly divided with 37% giving him good marks to 44% disapproving.

Let's put Lassiter's Democratic support in perspective- only 14% are voting for him but that's still a lot better than the 6% of Republicans Foxx is getting. 80% of the Democrats who support Lassiter approve of the job McCrory's doing. That speaks to the fact that McCrory has shown a moderate Republican can be a reasonable Mayor, even across party lines, and there is at least some segment of the Democratic electorate that's content to keep on that way.

79% of the independents who think McCrory's doing a good job are voting for Lassiter. Only 42% of the rest are. It's safe to say Lassiter's 20 point lead with that group would be considerably more narrow if not for McCrory's popularity with them.

Let me put it simply: if Pat McCrory's approval rating was only 50%, still well above average for politicians these days and particularly in North Carolina, this race would be over. The only question would be Foxx's winning margin. But with him at 60%, this contest is a dog fight. In this tossup there's not much doubt Pat McCrory is John Lassiter's best friend.

City Council Race More Clear

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for City Council are Republican
Tariq Scott Bokhari, Democrat Susan Burgess,
Democrat Patrick Cannon, Democrat David
Howard, Republican Edwin Peacock,
Democrat Darrin Rankin, Republican Jaye
Rao, and Republican Matthew Ridenhour. You
may vote for up to four candidates. Who is
your first choice for City Council? If Tariq Scott
Bokhari, press 1. If Susan Burgess, press 2. If
Patrick Cannon, press 3. If David Howard,
press 4. If Edwin Peacock, press 5. If Darrin
Rankin, press 6. If Jaye Rao, press 7. If
Matthew Ridenhour, press 8. If you’re
undecided, press 9.
Bokhari............................................................ 13%
Burgess........................................................... 32%
Cannon ........................................................... 17%
Howard ........................................................... 2%
Peacock.......................................................... 17%
Rankin............................................................. 0%
Rao ................................................................. 2%
Ridenhour ....................................................... 4%
Undecided....................................................... 12%

Q2 Who is your second choice for City Council, or
do you only plan to vote for one candidate? If
you only plan to vote for one candidate, press
1. If your second choice is Tariq Scott Bokhari,
press 2. If Susan Burgess, press 3. If Patrick
Cannon, press 4. If David Howard, press 5. If
Edwin Peacock, press 6. If Darrin Rankin,
press 7. If Jaye Rao, press 8. If Matthew
Ridenhour, press 9. If you’re undecided, press
0.
Only Voting For One ....................................... 33%
Bokhari............................................................ 7%
Burgess........................................................... 8%
Cannon ........................................................... 15%
Howard ........................................................... 4%
Peacock.......................................................... 10%
Rankin............................................................. 2%
Rao ................................................................. 3%
Ridenhour ....................................................... 3%
Undecided....................................................... 15%

Burgess leads in Charlotte

While the race for Mayor of Charlotte may be too close to call the favorites for at least three of the four at large City Council seats appear pretty clear, with two incumbents and a former Councilman leading the way:

Susan Burgess 17
Patrick Cannon 15
Edwin Peacock 13
Tariq Scott Bokhari 9
David Howard 5
Matthew Ridenhour 5
Jaye Rao 5
Darrin Rankin 3
Undecided 28

There are still a lot of people undecided, particularly about who will get their third and fourth votes. There are also a lot of folks who say they will vote for only one or two candidates but could still decide to vote for a full or fuller slate before next Tuesday.

32% of respondents named Burgess as their first choice followed by Cannon and Peacock at 17% and Bokhari at 13%. No other candidate exceeded 4% for first choice.

Cannon led the way as second choice with 15% followed by Peacock at 10%, Burgess at 8%, and Bokhari at 7%. Because of the number of undecideds and people planning to vote for only one or two candidates, no one did better than 6% for third choice or 4% for fourth choice.

It will probably be a battle between Bokhari and Howard for the fourth slot. Supporters of Burgess and Cannon may see in the final six days of the campaign that a third vote for Howard poses no threat to the likelihood of the top two Democratic candidates winning.

Burgess is the top choice of most demographic groups including liberals, moderates, men, women, Democrats, independents, whites, African Americans, and senior citizens. Peacock is the first choice for conservatives and Republicans, and Cannon leads among young voters.

The level of undecideds makes this race pretty volatile but it makes sense that in an race that hasn't caught a lot of people's attention the three most well known candidates would lead the way. That leaves the rest of the field fighting over that fourth spot.

Full results here

Foxx, Lassiter tied up

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 If the candidates for Mayor this fall were
Democrat Anthony Foxx and Republican John
Lassiter, who would you vote for? If Anthony
Foxx, press 1. If John Lassiter, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Foxx................................................................ 45%
Lassiter ........................................................... 45%
Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Anthony Foxx? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you're not sure, press
3.
Approve .................. 52%
Disapprove.............. 18%
Not Sure.................. 30%

Charlotte's tied

With a week to go the race to be the next Mayor of Charlotte is all tied up. Anthony Foxx and John Lassiter are each at 45%.

The ultimate winner of this race is going to be determined by who can get their people out to the polls, and in particular what the breakdown of the electorate is by race and age.

There are major divisions along demographic lines in the candidates' support. Lassiter leads 63-29 among white voters, a gap even wider than in the Presidential race in North Carolina last year. Foxx has an 80-9 lead with African Americans.

Charlotte's population is 33% black and we project their share of the electorate at 32%. If excitement about the possibility of the city having its first black Mayor since the 80s results in African Americans turning out at a higher rate than whites Foxx will win. But black turnout has tended to lag in local elections and if that turns out to be the case Lassiter is the likely winner.

There are similarly large divisions along age lines. Lassiter leads 61-30 with senior citizens. Foxx is up 57-29 with voters under 30. We expect high turnout from old voters and low turnout from young voters but if the pattern is different than that give the advantage to Foxx.

While it is unclear who will win this race, one thing is certain: the contest is very unusual in the polarized world of 21st century American politics in that both candidates are quite popular. 59% of voters have a favorable opinion of Lassiter to only 19% negative. 52% have a positive opinion of Foxx to only 18% unfavorable. Most of the races we poll on right now voters are deciding based on who they hate less- this is a refreshing but rare one where they're picking who they like more.

Lassiter is hanging in there in this Democratic city because of a 51-31 lead with independents and because he's getting a bigger share of his party's vote (86%) than Foxx is getting of his (79%). We also find a likely electorate that is considerably more Republican leaning than the people who turned out last fall. While Barack Obama won the city by more than 30 points, the voters planning to come out this year supported the President by just a 52-44 margin.

That means McCain voters are planning to turn out right now at a considerably higher rate than Obama's, and it also means that Foxx probably has a lot more upside in the final week of the campaign. There are a lot more Democratic leaning voters sitting on their hands right now than Republicans and if the Foxx GOTV effort is successful in getting them out he should win. But it's not a given that Presidential only voters can be made interested in the Mayoral race, so this one's about as close as it could be.

Tomorrow we'll release City Council numbers, where there's a lot more clarity.

Full results here