Raleigh, N.C. – After several months of declining poll numbers that saw Kay Hagan go from leading her potential GOP opponents by double digits to being effectively tied with most of them, her numbers have leveled out this month. 43% of voters approve of the job she's doing to 49% who disapprove, almost identical to 44/49 in November. Still it's clear the Obamacare rollout has taken its toll on her- in September she had this same 43% approval rating, but her disapproval has spiked 10 points from its 39% level then.
Hagan finds herself in toss up territory with all of her potential Republican opponents. She leads Thom Tillis 44/42, is tied with both Heather Grant and Mark Harris at 43, and trails both Greg Brannon and Bill Flynn 45/43. Those numbers are all pretty similar to what they were in November.
It may seem counter intuitive that Tillis, generally seen as the likely Republican candidate, is the only one who trails Hagan. That's a reflection of his being the only one of the GOP candidates who's particularly well known, and it not being a good thing for him. Only 12% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 30% with a negative one, a residual effect of his association with this year's unpopular legislative session. That's causing him to poll slightly worse than the more generic Republican candidates.