Public Policy Polling

Franken in solid position for reelection

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s new survey of Minnesota voters finds Al Franken comfortably leading all potential challengers. Franken leads Michele Bachmann 55% to 38%. He leads Jason Lewis by 54% to 37%. Franken bests Republican Mike McFadden 51%-36%. He leads Julianne Ortman 52%-35%. Julie Rosen trails Franken 36%-52%. Rounding out the bunch, Rich Stanek faces a 36%-51% deficit against the Senator.

Franken himself is popular, with a 51% approval rating to 42% disapproval. Bachmann is deeply unpopular, at 34% favorable, 60% unfavorable and 7% not sure. Lewis has an 18% positive rating and 19% negative rating; 63% were undecided. McFadden garners positive views from 4%, negative ones from 10% and none from 85%. Julianne Ortman also has a 4% favorability rating, but her positive number comes with a 15% negative rating.  Rosen garners a 9%-13% spread with 79% expressing no opinion. Rich Stanek stands at 11% positive and 14% negative. 75% have no opinion of him.

Franken favored for reelection

PPP's newest Minnesota poll finds Al Franken in good shape for reelection. 51% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 42% who disapprove. That +9 net approval rating is actually 6 points better than Barack Obama's in the state. The President gets 50% approval from voters in the state to 47% who disapprove of him.

Franken starts out with large leads against his potential opponents for reelection next year. He's up 15 on Mike McFadden and Rich Stanek at 51/36, 16 on Julie Rosen at 52/36, and 17 on Julianne Ortman and Jason Lewis at 52/35 and 54/37 respectively. On the off chance Michele Bachmann decided to make a statewide run Franken would have a 55/38 lead. Her statewide favorability rating is just 34%, with 60% of voters holding a negative opinion of her.

Part of the reason for Franken's early leads is his own popularity, but it's also partly because the potential Republican candidates are basically a blank slate to Minnesota voters. Lewis has 37% name recognition, Stanek 25%, Rosen 22%, Ortman 19%, and McFadden 14%. Because of the low profile of the potential GOP candidates they do have a good amount of room to grow against Franken, although he's certainly a clear favorite at any rate.

Other findings from Minnesota:

Franken looking strong in 2014 Senate re-election bid

Raleigh, N.C. – Democrat Al Franken leads four potential GOP challengers by 6 to 14 points in the 2014 campaign for his Minnesota Senate seat, according to PPP’s latest poll.

Voters approve of Franken’s job performances by an 11 point margin, 52% to 41%. Franken’s approval numbers generally break down along party lines: 89% of Democrats approve, 83% of Republicans disapprove, and support from independents is about even at 46/45. Moderate voters approve of the job Franken is doing as Senator 62% to 30%.

In hypothetical 2014 match-ups, Franken leads Norm Coleman by 6 points (50/44), John Kline by 8 points (49/41), Erik Paulsen by 11 points (50/39) and Michele Bachmann by 14 points (54/40). Support from moderate and female voters gives Franken a decisive edge against most of these potential Republican candidates.

Al Franken in good shape so far

Al Franken's in good shape heading into his reelection cycle. Our newest poll finds 52% of Minnesota voters approving of him to 41% who disapprove. Those solid numbers are pretty consistent with where we've found him for most of the last year.

One thing that may help Franken's reelection chances, on top of his own popularity, is the weak Republican bench in the state. The top choice of GOP voters in Minnesota to take on Franken is Michele Bachmann. 45% say they would like her to be their candidate with no one else even coming close-  John Kline is at 19%, Chip Cravaack at 13%, Erik Paulsen at 11%, Laura Brod at 4%, and Rich Stanek at 2%. Bachmann fares equally strongly with voters in the party who identify as 'very conservative' (46%), 'somewhat conservative' (45%), and moderate (also 45%).

The problem with GOP voters in the state wanting Bachmann as their Senate standard bearer is that she does the worst of anyone we tested against Franken, trailing him 54/40, including a 50/39 deficit with independents. Only 35% of voters in the state have a positive opinion of her, compared to 59% who see her in a negative light. The desire of Minnesota Republicans to nominate Bachmann suggests they didn't learn much from their failures last year.

That said, no one else comes particularly close to Franken either. John Kline trails him 49/41 and Erik Paulsen's at a 50/39 disadvantage. We tested Norm Coleman too even though he's indicated that he's not going to run against Franken, and Franken leads him by a 50/44 margin. That's a good measure of how Franken's standing has improved over the last four years- he's basically 6 points stronger now than he was at the time of his election in 2008.

It's early in the cycle but at least for now Al Franken does not appear to be among the more vulnerable incumbent Senators next year.

Full results here

Obama up 8 in Minnesota, amendments trail for passage

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final Minnesota poll of the 2012 election cycle finds Barack Obama leading comfortably, 53-45. We've conducted four surveys of the state since Labor Day and found Obama leading by a margin in the 7-10 point range on each of them.

Obama doesn't have great approval numbers in the state, with 49% of voters giving him good marks to 45% who disapprove. But voters aren't big on Romney either with 43% rating him favorably to 49% who have a negative view of him. Obama's winning thanks in particular to large margins with women (58/39) and voters under 30 (71/27).

The more interesting findings on our final Minnesota poll deal with the state's high profile amendments to ban gay marriage and require voter identification. We find both narrowly trailing. 45% of voters say they'll vote for the gay marriage ban, compared to 52% who are opposed to it. And 46% say they'll support the voter ID amendment to 51% who are opposed.

Minnesota supports gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest poll on Minnesota's amendment to ban gay marriage finds it running slightly behind, with 46% of voters planning to support it and 49% opposed.

That represents a 4 point shift compared to a month ago when it led for passage 48-47. The movement over the last month has been with independent voters. Where they supported the amendment 51/42 in September, they've now almost flipped and oppose it by a 52/42 margin. Women (43/51) are stronger in their opposition to it than men (49/47) are in their support. Most of the margin against the amendment is being provided by younger voters who say they plan to vote against it 53/38.

In general 47% of voters in the state say they support gay marriage to 43% who are opposed. And 74% of voters, including even 52% of Republicans, support some form of legal recognition for gay couples either in the form of marriage or civil unions.

Minnesota marriage amendment narrowly trails

-PPP's newest poll on Minnesota's amendment to ban gay marriage finds it running slightly behind, with 46% of voters planning to support it and 49% opposed. That represents a 4 point shift compared to a month ago when it led for passage 48-47.

The movement over the last month has been with independent voters. Where they supported the amendment 51/42 in September, they've now almost flipped and oppose it by a 52/42 margin. Women (43/51) are stronger in their opposition to it than men (49/47) are in their support. Most of the margin against the amendment is being provided by younger voters who say they plan to vote against it 53/38.

In general 47% of voters in the state say they support gay marriage to 43% who are opposed. And 74% of voters, including even 52% of Republicans, support some form of legal recognition for gay couples either in the form of marriage or civil unions.

-Things are starting to get interesting with Minnesota's voter ID amendment. When we polled on it in June it was leading for passage by a 58/34 margin. By September that had tightened to a 56/39 advantage. And now it's leading only 51/43. Democrats are now even more opposed to the voter ID amendment (23/71) than they are to the one on marriage. And although independents continue to support it their 52/41 favor for it is down a good deal from 62/33 a month ago. This fight may end up a lot closer than people initially expected.

-Democrats have a 52/40 advantage on the generic legislative ballot, including a 48/34 lead with independents. It's always hard to say exactly what a generic ballot translates to in terms of seats gained, but that should lead to a pretty healthy number of pick ups for the Democrats.

Minnesota split on marriage amendment

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest poll on the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in Minnesota finds it virtually tied, with 48% of voters supporting the ban to 47% who oppose it. In January we found 48/44 support for the ban, while in June we found 49/43 opposition. It looks like a toss up.

Women (52/41), Democrats (78/16), and voters under 45 (50/45) all oppose the ban. Men (55/41), Republicans (80/17), independents (51/42), and seniors (53/40) all support it in greater numbers though.

“It looks like Minnesota’s marriage amendment will go down to the wire,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters in the state are very closely divided in their attitudes about it.”

Minnesota Miscellany

-PPP's newest poll on the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in Minnesota finds it virtually tied, with 48% of voters supporting the ban to 47% who oppose it. In January we found 48/44 support for the ban, while in June we found 49/43 opposition. It looks like a toss up.

Women (52/41), Democrats (78/16), and voters under 45 (50/45) all oppose the ban. Men (55/41), Republicans (80/17), independents (51/42), and seniors (53/40) all support it in greater numbers though.

While Minnesotans are split down the middle on gay marriage they're strongly supportive of providing gay couples with some form of legal rights. 72% support either marriage or civil unions to only 25% opposed to any sort of legal recognition. Even Republicans by a 51/47 margin at least support civil unions.

-Minnesota's voter ID amendment looks to be headed for more comfortable passage, although the numbers have tightened up a little bit since our June poll. It leads by 17 points, 56-39, compared to a 24 point lead at 58-34 the last time we polled it. That movement is because Democrats have hardened in their opposition to it, going from being against it just 54/36 to now 72/20. But it retains overwhelming support from Republicans (88/9) and independents (62/33).

Klobuchar cruising, Franken too

Raleigh, N.C. –  Amy Klobuchar’s job approval ratings are not quite as lofty as when PPP last polled Minnesota in January, but still almost twice as many of her constituents like their freshman senator as dislike the work she is doing.  Because of that, she leads her four unknown potential Republican opponents by almost identical margins.

57% approve and 29% disapprove of Klobuchar’s job performance, down a tick from 61-28 four months ago.  83% of Democrats, 61% of independents, and even 25% of Republicans think she is doing a good job.

At the same time, only 15-27% of the state’s voters claim to have an opinion on any of the GOP field, with Doc Severson the best-known and most popular.  17% see him favorably and 10% unfavorably.  But his relative notoriety means little, for Klobuchar still leads him by 28 points (55-27), the same deficit as has Pete Hegseth (56-28), and larger than those faced by Joe Arwood (56-29) or Kurt Bills (55-29).