Public Policy Polling

Blogtalk

A smattering of posts on PPP's latest polls.

Elizabeth Dole vs. Dean Smith
The Hedgehog Report
TPM Election Central
Senate 2008 Guru
Leftword
MyDD
BlueNC 1
BlueNC 2
Under the Dome
Isaac Hunter's Tavern

Raleigh City Council
New Raleigh
BelowtheBeltline

Coach Smith popular, but not enough to overtake Dole

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way
President Bush is handling his job as
President? If you approve, press 1 on your
keypad now. If you disapprove, press 2. If you
are not sure, press 3.
Approve .................. 40%
Disapprove.............. 54%
Not sure .................. 6%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of the way
Senator Elizabeth Dole is handling her job as
Senator? If you approve, press 1. If you
disapprove, press 2. If you are not sure, press
3.
Approve .................. 45%
Disapprove.............. 40%
Not sure .................. 15%

Coach Smith popular, but not enough to overtake Dole

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way
President Bush is handling his job as
President? If you approve, press 1 on your
keypad now. If you disapprove, press 2. If you
are not sure, press 3.
Approve .................. 40%
Disapprove.............. 54%
Not sure .................. 6%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of the way
Senator Elizabeth Dole is handling her job as
Senator? If you approve, press 1. If you
disapprove, press 2. If you are not sure, press
3.
Approve .................. 45%
Disapprove.............. 40%
Not sure .................. 15%

Could Dean Smith beat Elizabeth Dole?

Maybe. According to our latest survey former basketball coach Dean Smith fares better against Dole than any Democrat we have tested other than Governor Mike Easley.

Dole 41%
Smith 35%

In a more likely scenario, we did further testing of State Representative Grier Martin against Elizabeth Dole. First was a question with no description other than their elective office and later the respondents were given an extensive biography of Rep. Martin. Click here for complete results to see the biography.

Dole vs. Martin w/o bio
Dole 45%
Martin 30%

Dole vs. Martin w/ bio
Martin 47%
Dole 40%

Yes, you are reading that correctly. When respondents are given an extensive biography of Grier Martin he beats Elizabeth Dole. What does this prove?

1. The power of an informed vote question on poll results.
2. The incredible potential of a Grier Martin candidacy.
3. Grier Martin is currently far behind Elizabeth Dole and would need a well run campaign to effectively communicate that biography. Not to mention the fact that the Dole campaign will be doing everything it can to discredit him and tout her own impressive resume.

Other results of interest…

Dole Approval
Approve 45%
Disapprove 40%

Bush Approval
Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%

North Carolinians on the War in Iraq

From today's new poll...

When it comes to the situation in Iraq, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the war?

Approve 38%
Disapprove 58%

Should Congress set a timetable for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq within the next year, or should Congress follow the President and keep troops in Iraq until the job is finished.

Set a timetable 49%
Follow the President 41%

It’s clear that a majority of North Carolina voters are unhappy with the War in Iraq and about half want Congress to get us of Iraq.

Poll finds incumbents with tenuous leads

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 In October you will be voting on an 88.6 million
dollar city parks bond, that will help pay for new
parkland, park facilities and greenways
including along the Neuse River. If the election
were today would you vote for or against the
parks bond? If for, press 1 on your keypad
now. If against, press 2. If you are undecided,
press 3.
For .......................... 60%
Against.................... 27%
Undecided............... 13%

Q2 In October you can vote for 2 of the 6
candidates for the two city-wide at-large seats
on the Raleigh city council. If the election were
held today, which of these six candidates
would be your first choice? Paul Anderson,
Mary Ann Baldwin, Will Best, Russ
Stephenson, Helen Tart or David Williams? If
Paul Anderson, press 1. If Mary Ann Baldwin,
press 2. If Will Best, press 3. If Russ
Stephenson, press 4. If Helen Tart, press 5. If
David Williams, press 6. If you are undecided,
press 7.
Anderson............... 12%
Baldwin ................. 16%
Best....................... 2%
Stephenson........... 20%
Tart........................ 2%
Williams................. 3%
Undecided............. 46%

Raleigh City Council: The Races

At-Large First Choice, Second Choice (Vote for 2)
Stephenson 20, 7%
Baldwin 16, 10%
Anderson 12, 6%
Williams 3, 2%
Tart 2, 3%
Best 2, 2%
Undecided 46, 69%

Russ Stephenson and Mary Ann Baldwin have a clear lead for the two at-large seats on the city council, with Paul Anderson a clear third. However, neither is anywhere close to the 25% needed to avoid a run-off. If everyone voted for two candidates as they are allowed, Stephenson and Baldwin would currently have the support of 13.5% and 13% of the votes respectively. A whopping 57.5% of the vote is still up for grabs.

District A
Craven 38%
McFarlane 25%

District B
Taliaferro 35%
Koopman 21%
Menendez 8%

Incumbents Tommy Craven and Jessie Taliaferro have the early lead, but are below the magic 50% mark, signifying that an incumbent is vulnerable. Maybe that doesn’t mean much in a low intensity election like city council. I do know that strong challengers Nancy McFarlane and Rodger Koopman have yet to begin their direct mail campaigns and there are plenty of undecided voters left to swing the election.

Click here for complete results. I’ll have more thoughts on the rest of the survey later today.

Full Disclosure: I personally have donated and volunteered on behalf of Russ Stephenson and Nancy McFarlane.

Dole Memo or Press Release?

Ryan at Under the Dome posted a polling memorandum released by Elizabeth Dole's campaign. Click here for the memo itself. There is not any new news. It just repeats that according to a recent poll Dole's approval rating is 64%.

What I find interesting-- or humorous-- is that the Dole campaign tries to pass this off as a real polling memo and not what it really is-- a press release. PPP would never send a client such a brief memo that utterly lacks substance, analysis, and polling numbers.

Civitas Returns

After a month hiatus the Civitas Poll returns. There's a lot of savory polling goodness inside. Where to start? How 'bout starting with the easy stuff. Primary elections.

Dem President
Edwards 22%
Clinton 20%
Obama 19%

Rep President
Thompson 25%
Giuliani 21%
Romney 13%
McCain 12%

Dem Governor
Perdue 29%
Moore 21%

Rep Governor
Orr 12%
Graham 11%
Smith 11%

Bush Approval
Approve 43%
Disapprove 52%

I found this chart to be pretty interesting as well.


More on the Civitas Poll later.

Raleigh City Council: The Issues

$88.6 million city park bond
Support 60%
Oppose 27%

Last year Raleigh raised the impact fee on newly built homes and businesses, taking the fee for a single-family home from 682 dollars to 1,170 dollars. Yet impact fees still pay for only 20 percent of new roads and parks projects required to support the new development, while the rest of Raleigh property taxpayers pay the other 80 percent. Do you think Raleigh should raise the impact fee on newly built homes and businesses closer to the statewide average of 4,038 dollars per single family home?
Support raise 60%
Do not support 27%

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a city council candidate that supports raising the impact fee?
More likely 54%
Less likely 28%

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a city council candidate that received large donations from developers?
More likely 5%
Less likely 81%

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a city council candidate that was endorsed by the Sierra Club?
More likely 41%
Less likely 30%