Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s found a net 14 point increase in support for gay marriage in Pennsylvania
over the last year and a half. Voters in the state are now almost evenly
divided on the issue with 45% thinking it should be legal and 47% believing it
should continue to be illegal. In November of 2011 we found only 36% support
and 52% opposition for gay marriage among Keystone State voters. Seniors
continue to be opposed to gay marriage by a 28/62 margin, but voters under 45
support it 58/35, suggesting that it’s only a matter of time.
Civil unions for same sex couples are pretty uncontroversial now with voters
in the state. 74% support either gay marriage or civil unions with only 24% of
voters opposed to any sort of legal recognition for gay couples. Even among
Republicans there’s 68% support for one or the other.
“The massive generational gap on gay marriage in Pennsylvania reflects what
we see most places,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
“Majority support for it is just around the corner.”
Looking towards 2016 Hillary Clinton would be an overwhelming favorite in
the state- she leads Paul Ryan (52/40), Marco Rubio (52/37), and Rick Santorum
(55/38) all by double digit margins. Santorum is not popular in his home state,
with 42% of voters rating him favorably to 46% with a negative opinion. That
compares pretty unfavorably to Clinton’s 55/35 in the state.
Santorum manages only a tie for fourth when it comes to who GOP voters in
the state would like to see as their 2016 candidate. Chris Christie leads the
way with 20% to 17% for Marco Rubio and Rand Paul, 10% for Santorum and Jeb
Bush, 9% for Mike Huckabee, 6% for Paul Ryan, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 1% for
Rick Perry. Paul’s doing much better than we’ve found in most of our 2016
polling other places, suggesting that his filibuster last week might have done
him some good.
PPP surveyed 504
Pennsylvania voters, including an oversample of 373 usual Republican primary
voters, from March 8th to 10th. The margin of error for
the overall survey is +/-4.4%, and +/-5.1% for the GOP portion. This poll was not
paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .45%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .19%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Toomey’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .34%
Disapprove…………. .37%
Not sure …………….. .29%
Q4 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat …………… .42%
Republican…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .16%
Q5 Do you think that all of Pennsylvania’s electoral
votes should go to the presidential candidate
who wins in the state, or do you think one
electoral vote should be given to the winner of
each congressional district?
All of
Pennsylvania’s
electoral votes
should go to the
candidate who wins
the state ………………44%
One vote should be
given to the winner
of each
congressional
district …………………38%
Not sure …………….. .18%
Q6 Would you support or oppose banning assault
weapons?
Support ……………… .52%
Oppose ……………… .39%
Not sure …………….. . 9%
Q7 Would you support or oppose Congress
passing stricter gun laws?
Support ……………… .53%
Oppose ……………… .41%
Not sure …………….. . 6%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the National Rifle Association?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q9 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
It should be allowed …………………………………. 45%
It should not ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..38%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………36%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q13 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 52%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q14 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 52%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q15 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 55%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 19%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 12%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Rick
Perry, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush……………. .10%
Chris Christie ……… .20%
Mike Huckabee …… . 9%
Bobby Jindal ………. . 4%
Rand Paul ………….. .17%
Rick Perry ………….. . 1%
Marco Rubio ………. .17%
Paul Ryan ………….. . 6%
Rick Santorum……. .10%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….6%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 29%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 40%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
