Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama has expanded his lead over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney and now leads the former Massachusettes Governor by 10 points, 51%-41%. When PPP last polled Iowa in October 2011, Obama led by just 4 points, 46-42.
Since last October, Obama has reversed his net-negative approval rating with Iowa voters. In October just 43% of voters approved of his job performance with 52% disapproving. Now he sits at 49% approval and 46% disapproval, including a 52-41 rating with independents.
By contrast, barely 1/3 of Iowans have a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney, weeks after he’s effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination. His approval rating stands at 34% favorable and 56% unfavorable, even worse than last October when he was at 34-52. Romney’s favorability rating among independent voters is an awful 28-59, and he still earns the disapproval of 25% of Republicans with just 63% approving. Meanwhile Obama enjoys the approval of 86% of Democrats and the disapproval of just 10%.
“Pundits who have Iowa in the lean Republican column might need to rethink their assessments,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Barack Obama’s approval numbers have rebounded strongly there over the last six months, and in one of the states where voters have seen Mitt Romney the most their view of him is not particularly charitable.”
PPP also looked at how adding Governor Terry Branstad or Representative Steve King to the Republican ticket might help Romney’s fortunes in Iowa. Neither man is exceedingly popular right now – Branstad’s approval rating is 43-43 and Steve King’s is at 25% favorable, 38% unfavorable and 37% not sure. With Branstad on the ticket, Romney gains 2 points but still loses to Obama 50-42, and with King as his hypothetical running mate, Obama wins 50-40.
PPP surveyed 1,181 Iowa voters between May 3rd and 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.85%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Terry Branstad’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Terry Branstad for Vice
President, which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 50%
Romney-Branstad……………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve King?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q9 If the Democratic ticket was Barack Obama for
President and Joe Biden for Vice President,
and the Republican ticket was Mitt Romney for
President and Steve King for Vice President,
which would you vote for?
Obama-Biden………………………………………….. 50%
Romney-King ………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 40%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
